{"id":10349,"date":"2023-12-13T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-12T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=10349"},"modified":"2024-09-19T04:54:10","modified_gmt":"2024-09-18T18:54:10","slug":"southeast-asia-snapshot-64","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/southeast-asia-snapshot-64\/","title":{"rendered":"Southeast Asia Snapshot #64"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

SOVINDA PO<\/a> | <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Philippines\u2019s current domestic politics and foreign relations<\/strong> <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The internal and external political situations of the Philippines are gaining a major impetus. On the domestic front, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced<\/a>, on 24 November 2023, that the Philippines\u2019 government is considering resuming its membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This came after Manila Representative Bienvenido Abante Jr. filed a resolution<\/a> urging the Marcos administration to coordinate with the ICC. Moreover, this is nearly 5 years after the Philippines pulled out of the ICC<\/a> in 2019 due to the investigation into possible crimes against humanity in former President Duterte\u2019s drug war. However, the Philippines\u2019 return to the ICC is currently under study<\/a> as the jurisdiction and sovereignty in relation to the ICC investigation are still an issue. The Filipino government has a firm stance that it is not proper for the ICC, a foreign body, to dictate the Philippines<\/a> anything and that its investigation was a threat to the country\u2019s sovereignty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consideration didn\u2019t sit well<\/a> with Vice\u2013President Sara Duterte, former President Duterte\u2019s daughter, who said that allowing an ICC investigation is \u201cpatently unconstitutional\u201d while Harry Roque, former Presidential spokesperson, believed<\/a> that even if the Philippines return to the ICC, the drug war can\u2019t be investigated since \u201ctemporal jurisdiction was lost in 2019.\u201d There is also a growing sentiment<\/a> in the House of Representatives to allow the ICC to resume its investigation; however, Marcos said clearly that it is \u201cnot usual\u201d<\/a> for the House lawmakers to favor an ICC investigation and still believed that the country could solve its domestic affairs<\/a>, including the drug war issue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the foreign relations front, Manila\u2019s relations with Beijing are deteriorating and worsening. Chinese and Philippines vessels engaged in a new confrontation<\/a> in the South China Sea, in mid-November 2023. According to the Philippines, a Chinese coast guard ship and accompanying vessels conducted dangerous manoeuvres<\/a> and blasted a Philippines supply ship with a water cannon in disputed waters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Philippines authorities said the water cannon was used by the Chinese coast guard vessel in \u201can illegal though unsuccessful attempt to force it to alter course<\/a>\u201d as it took part in a routine resupply mission to troops stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre in the Second Thomas Shoal. However, the Philippines\u2019s resupply mission was successfully carried out<\/a> despite the incident. Despite that, the incident revealed the possible risk that could turn the confrontation into a more serious armed<\/a> engagement in the future.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China responded that it acted appropriately<\/a> under maritime law to defend what it says is its territory and urged the Philippines to stop actions that infringe<\/a> upon China\u2019s rights while also saying China would continue to uphold its sovereignty. The Philippines, on the other hand, insisted<\/a> \u201cthat Chinese vessels responsible for these illegal activities leave the vicinity of Ayungin Shoal immediately. Washington reacted immediately to the confrontation by repeating that it stands with its oldest ally<\/a> in Asia \u201cin the face of the People\u2019s Republic of China\u2019s repeated harassment in the South China Sea.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Philippines’ consideration to return to the ICC raised complex internal and controversial discussions while its foreign relations with China is a regular confrontation<\/a>. The Philippines must seek peaceful resolutions through diplomacy, both internally and externally, for the country\u2019s stability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar armed groups seized Myanmar-China border crossing<\/strong> <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In late November 2023, the Myanmar ethnic minority rebels seized<\/a> a key trading post on the country\u2019s northern frontier, at a location from where China\u2019s military is also conducting<\/a> exercises to improve combat readiness and emergency response.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rebels<\/a> included the Arakan Army (AA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta\u2019ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The alliance also captured numerous military positions and a strategically significant town<\/a> \u2013 called the Kyin San Kyawt in the Mongko area, Muse district \u2013 that is crucial for trade with China, disrupting commerce routes<\/a> vital for the junta. The junta reported that about 120 trucks<\/a>, parked near the border crossing, had gone up in flames because of the armed groups\u2019 attack. After the seizure, the MNDAA raised its flag<\/a> at the border trade zone at Kyin San Kyawt signalling their victory in occupying the area. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The occupation by the ethnic armed groups led many to believe the traditional dominance<\/a> of the military junta is facing a dire challenge while China has urged its nationals<\/a> to depart for safety back to Chinese territory. However, for Kokang people who sought to flee to China, Chinese authorities fired tear gas<\/a> halting them from entering China\u2019s territory while Beijing refrained from any comment on the action. The UN called<\/a> this operation \u201cthe largest in scale and most extensive geographically\u201d since the military coup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar\u2019s ethnic armed groups seizing key locations pose a major challenge for the junta and innocent civilians. Urgent international intervention is direly needed to protect the innocent and prevent further escalation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vietnam and Japan upgraded ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership<\/strong> <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

During Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong\u2019s visit to Tokyo from 27 \u2013 30 November 2023<\/a>, Vietnam and Japan officially agreed to upgrade<\/a> their relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity in Asia and the World.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two leaders issued a joint statement<\/a> on elevating Vietnam-Japan relations affirming their desire to promote bilateral relations in all fields to \u201cnew heights\u201d. Moreover, the two leaders also emphasized fundamental principles<\/a> guiding the Japan-Vietnam relationship, including respect for the UN Charter, adherence to international law, and mutual respect. The new chapter would include<\/a> more \u201csubstantial, comprehensive, effective, and closely-linked development to meet the interests of both sides and contribute to peace, stability, cooperation, and development in the region and the world.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With this upgrade, both Japan and Vietnam\u2019s leaders endorsed the cooperation<\/a> while it is argued that<\/a> \u201cit sends a signal to both China and the US that Vietnam is not going to take sides in the great power competition and will continue to pursue its traditional strategy of hedging and multilateralization of foreign affairs.\u201d Others believe that Japan was eying on Vietnam\u2019s collaboration in response to China\u2019s rise and rivalry<\/a> in the region.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Vietnam-Japan relations\u2019 elevation signalled unity, and mutual interest<\/a> in regional stability; however, both countries will need to remain alert not to veer their cooperation into any major powers\u2019 rivalry in the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sovinda<\/strong> Po<\/strong> is a Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SOVINDA PO | The Philippines\u2019s current domestic politics and foreign relations  The internal and external political situations of the Philippines are gaining a major impetus. On the domestic front, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced, on 24 November 2023, that the Philippines\u2019 government is considering resuming its membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC).  This came 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