{"id":11202,"date":"2024-06-24T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-23T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=11202"},"modified":"2024-06-23T12:36:45","modified_gmt":"2024-06-23T02:36:45","slug":"the-international-monetary-fund-papua-new-guinea-and-rapid-foreign-exchange-reform","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-international-monetary-fund-papua-new-guinea-and-rapid-foreign-exchange-reform\/","title":{"rendered":"The International Monetary Fund, Papua New Guinea and rapid foreign exchange reform"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

SEAN JACOBS<\/a>  | Part 1 of 3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IMF\u2019s return<\/em><\/a> to Papua New Guinea (PNG) offers a symbolic and timely reminder of many overdue changes to the PNG economy, which have the capacity to deliver policy outcomes where they matter most \u2013 among everyday Papua New Guineans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nation of approximately<\/a> 11 million \u2013 two decades after the IMF\u2019s disruptive<\/a> 2001 departure in the wake of student led riots \u2013 now grapples with fuel shortages<\/a> driven by a lack of foreign exchange, a poorly run<\/a> state led electricity sector, and a human capital environment that remains largely challenged by access<\/a> to foreign skills and know-how, especially in non-resource sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Structural economic reform in PNG exists in a \u2018halfway house\u2019 between a more open and closed economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Prime Minister Marape has welcomed the IMF\u2019s return \u2013 \u201ccome and assist, assess, look and advise us,\u201d Marape noted<\/a> in a statement \u2013 the implementation of a reform framework will take political courage. Marape may not have the political capital amid an eroding<\/a> parliamentary base. Yet a feasible reform pathway exists in some priority areas, which I highlight in this three-part series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If implemented in the next six months, these reforms could secure economic wins to both the formal sector and the most desperate within PNG\u2019s economy by year end 2024, lighting a path to increased prosperity and greater political capital and legitimacy for Marape and the PNG Government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the top of PNG\u2019s reform priority list is resolving its petroleum crisis. Petroleum use is pervasive in the PNG economy, from outboard motors and generators to personal motor vehicles and shipping. Yet fuel shortages \u2013 and skyrocketing prices \u2013 jar the nation. Aviation fuel shortages in particular have recently<\/a> earned \u2018national emergency\u2019 status, while long queues<\/a> at fuel stations and fuel rationing have resulted in obvious and debilitating economic<\/a> and social<\/a> consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PNG\u2019s fuel shortages are blamed on foreign exchange (forex). But what is the link exactly? While oft cited, the reasons are not well explained. PNG floated its currency in 1994 and maintained a \u2018managed\u2019 floating exchange rate. In 2014, however, in response to a forex shortage and broader market volatility, PNG moved<\/a> to a \u2018crawl-like\u2019 exchange rate arrangement. This essentially means the PNG Government \u2013 through the Bank of PNG \u2013 rations the amount of available forex within its economy rather than letting the exchange rate depreciate. As a result, fuel retailers like Puma Energy \u2013 who supply the lion\u2019s share of PNG\u2019s fuel \u2013 claim<\/a> to not possess enough foreign money to increase their supplies, leading to the outcomes listed above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petroleum is the primary public victim of PNG\u2019s forex crisis, mainly because its absence touches all aspects of the economy and society. Yet forex rationing also taints PNG\u2019s wider economy by dampening business investment and diminishing productivity, increasing costs, limiting export opportunities for PNG industries, and reducing \u201cthe variety and availability of goods for domestic consumers,\u201d according<\/a> to economist Martin Davies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Escalating costs, limited choice and fewer jobs and growth are obviously not a recipe for progression in a nation where 40 percent live<\/a> below the poverty line. While \u201ca roadmap on exchange-rate reform\u201d is being contemplated<\/a> by the PNG Government, it is clear that any immediate positive effects on the economy are \u2013 at the time of writing \u2013 absent. PNG entered 2024 with the effects<\/a> of fuel rationing in full tilt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is where Marape, by edging PNG\u2019s Kina to full convertibility, could catalyse a series of major positive impacts<\/a> on the economy. A 20 percent fall in PNG\u2019s Real Exchange Rate, for example, is predicted<\/a> to result in outcomes such as improving the national trade balance, opening up PNG\u2019s bond market (which could be used as a cash source for projects), increasing forex availability (to likely USD 250 million) and boosting PNG\u2019s agricultural exports by an estimated 30 percent. Importantly, it would also mean a less constrained business environment, which means more economic activity and increased jobs. While Kina depreciation is not an easy path to ride, it is a difficult reform that Marape will need to weather to nudge PNG\u2019s economy off its terminal path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related here is government expenditure and reducing the size of the PNG Government, which is not simply an ideological commitment but necessary for currency reforms to work. The main reason is that fiscal deficits increase the demand for foreign currency, \u201cgiven the strong links between the fiscal balance and the current account balance,\u201d according<\/a> to Davies. Under current arrangements, more<\/em> government expenditure means more<\/em> demand for foreign exchange, which only adds to PNG\u2019s billion-dollar-plus forex backlog<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking frankly, this would not be so bad if the PNG Government\u2019s expenditure and activities were efficient and tangibly contributing to positive \u2018on the ground\u2019 outcomes. There is, however, very limited evidence of this, from rolling blackouts<\/a> that leave families stifling in heat, hospitals that have no medicine or equipment<\/a>, roads<\/a> that can\u2019t be driven on, and schools that have no basic amenities<\/a> and whose teachers go unpaid<\/a>. Despite this, the PNG Government is PNG\u2019s largest employer, employing<\/a> over 61,000 staff, according to one analysis, which represents nearly 40 percent of the nation\u2019s total (formal) workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is clearly not a sustainable arrangement, especially if PNG\u2019s economic and social conditions are to improve. \u00a0Marape will do well to focus on a leaner PNG Government \u2013 with a particular focus on essential services \u2013 in order to free up foreign exchange shortages, especially if full convertibility is not pursued within this term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sean Jacobs<\/em><\/strong> is a Papua New Guinean-born Brisbane-based writer,<\/a> government relations and public policy specialist, and Industry Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SEAN JACOBS  | Part 1 of 3 The IMF\u2019s return to Papua New Guinea (PNG) offers a symbolic and timely reminder of many overdue changes to the PNG economy, which have the capacity to deliver policy outcomes where they matter most \u2013 among everyday Papua New Guineans. The nation of approximately 11 million \u2013 two decadesContinue reading “The International Monetary Fund, Papua New Guinea and rapid foreign exchange reform”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":11203,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1170,2153,1755,1021,1731,1728],"tags":[615,2225,2039,2055,970,1566,969,1050,935,382,1747],"class_list":["post-11202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-pacific-outlook-feature-series","category-governance-democracy","category-pacific-outlook","category-sdg16","category-sdg8","tag-economy","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-imf","tag-international-monetary-fund","tag-james-marape","tag-marape","tag-pacific-islands","tag-pacific-outlook","tag-papua-new-guinea","tag-png","tag-sean-jacobs"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nThe International Monetary Fund, Papua New Guinea and rapid foreign exchange reform | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"SEAN JACOBS  | Part 1 of 3 The IMF\u2019s return to Papua New Guinea (PNG) offers a symbolic and timely reminder of many overdue changes to the PNG Explore Part 1 of Sean Jacobs' insightful series on the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s return to Papua New Guinea (PNG) and its impact on foreign exchange reform. 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