{"id":1165,"date":"2016-02-02T15:46:12","date_gmt":"2016-02-02T05:46:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.griffithasiainsights.com.au\/?p=1165"},"modified":"2016-07-05T10:53:54","modified_gmt":"2016-07-05T00:53:54","slug":"power-risk-in-foreign-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/power-risk-in-foreign-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Power and risk in foreign policy: Understanding China&#8217;s crisis behavior"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Along with China&#8217;s rise in military and economic capabilities, foreign policy crises involving China seem more likely, as seen in the diplomatic standoffs in the South China Sea and over the Diaoyu\/Senkaku Islands. With the United States &#8220;rebalancing toward Asia,&#8221; diplomatic and military crises between China and its neighbors will inevitably involve U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, it is imperative for policymakers in the United States and other nations to understand China&#8217;s dynamic behavior in foreign policy crises &#8211; that is, when China will take risks to escalate a crisis and when China will avoid risks to seek accommodation during a crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Borrowing insights from prospect theory &#8211; a Nobel Prize &#8211; winning behavioral psychology theory &#8211; I introduce a &#8220;political survival prospect&#8221; model to shed some light on China&#8217;s dynamic behavior during crises. I suggest that Chinese foreign policy crisis behavior is shaped by Chinese decision makers&#8217; prospects regarding their political survival status: (1) when Chinese leaders are framed in a domain of losses or their political survival is at stake, then a risk-acceptant behavior in the form of coercive diplomacy is more likely to be adopted; (2) when Chinese leaders are framed in a domain of gains, then a risk-averse behavior in the form of an accommodative policy is more likely to be chosen.<\/p>\n<p>This article begins with a review of the &#8220;state of the art&#8221; in the study of China&#8217;s crisis behavior and introduces the political survival prospect model as an alternative approach to understand the variations in China&#8217;s crisis behavior. Then, two foreign policy crises that China experienced during Hu Jintao&#8217;s leadership will be examined: the 2009 Impeccable incident between China and the United States and the 2010 &#8220;boat collision&#8221; crisis between China and Japan. In conclusion, I suggest that the Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping might be risk acceptant in future crises if Xi is cornered into a vulnerable situation. Therefore, the United States and other nations should be careful in how they are shaping the domains of action for Chinese leaders during crises.<\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/polq.12396\/full\">Power and Risk in Foreign Policy: Understanding China&#8217;s Crisis Behavior<\/a>&#8221;\u00a0article in Political Science Quarterly by Griffith Asia Institute Associate Professor Kai He.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Along with China&#8217;s rise in military and economic capabilities, foreign policy crises involving China seem more likely, as seen in the diplomatic standoffs in the South China Sea and over the Diaoyu\/Senkaku Islands. With the United States &#8220;rebalancing toward Asia,&#8221; diplomatic and military crises between China and its neighbors will inevitably involve U.S. interests in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":1894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[245],"tags":[267,284,531,353,421,441],"class_list":["post-1165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-associate-professor-kai-he","tag-china","tag-foreign-policy","tag-japan","tag-south-china-sea","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Christine Kowalski","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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Hosted by US President Joe Biden, the attendees are slated to discuss a series of big issues, from\u00a0COVID-19 to cybersecurity, but China will dominate the conversation. So,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5292,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/australia-should-brace-for-a-volatile-year-in-foreign-policy-in-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":1165,"position":1},"title":"Australia should brace for a volatile year in foreign policy in 2019","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SUSAN HARRIS RIMMER | By the end of 2019 we should be able to assess how Australia is travelling with the grand plan laid out in the\u00a02017 Foreign Policy White Paper. In this, an election year, I examine the status of our most important international relationships. My verdict: decidedly shaky.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10152,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-outlook-ten-years-of-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-evolution-and-the-road-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":1165,"position":2},"title":"Regional Outlook | Ten years of China&#8217;s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Evolution and the road ahead","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"18 October 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CHRISTOPH NEDOPIL WANG\u00a0 |\u00a0 \u00a0Griffith Asia Institute and Green Finance and Development Center Joint Working Paper | 20-MINUTE READ | Download PDF Contents Introduction Greening of the BRI From largesse to small and\/but\/or beautiful\u00a0 Improved debt sustainability in the BRI From state-owned companies to private sector green field engagement International\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Green transition and development&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Green transition and development","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/green-transition-and-development\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia Institute Regional Outlook cover 76 - Belt and Road 10 Years","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10364,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/perspectivesasia-surviving-the-new-cold-war-as-a-middle-power\/","url_meta":{"origin":1165,"position":3},"title":"Perspectives:Asia | Surviving the new cold war as a middle power","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sQdLsEG1VeQ PERSPECTIVES:ASIA\u00a0|\u00a0PETER K LEE\u00a0| In the evolving landscape of the Indo-Pacific, middle powers such as Australia are confronted with increasingly complex choices between the United States and China. This new Cold War presents unique challenges and opportunities, and Australia, once navigating a different geopolitical reality, now finds itself among a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Event - Perspectives:Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Event - Perspectives:Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/events\/perspectives-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(L-R) Professor Ian Hall, Acting Director, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University, Dr Peter K Lee, Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre and Korea Foundation Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne\u2019s Asia Institute and Tarun Nagesh, Curatorial Manager, Asian and Pacific Art at QAGOMA. (Image: Chlo\u00eb Callistemon)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7799,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-56\/","url_meta":{"origin":1165,"position":4},"title":"Regional wrap | 56","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"13 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Griffith Asia Institute, fortnightly Regional wrap with Aakriti Bachhawat. One of the most important, and yet subtle developments this fortnight was a shift in Australia\u2019s position on the ongoing border tensions between India and China.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia Institute - Regional Wrap 54","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10441,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/cop28-brief-unpacking-chinas-stance-and-unravelling-implications\/","url_meta":{"origin":1165,"position":5},"title":"COP28 Brief: Unpacking China&#8217;s stance and unravelling implications","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"23 January 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"JING ZHANG AND CHRISTOPH NEDOPIL\u00a0 |\u00a0Griffith Asia Institute Policy Brief | 20-MINUTE READ | Download PDF Introduction China has placed significant emphasis on COP28, hosting over 100 side events to present the country\u2019s propositions and share its concepts, practices and cutting-edge technologies in the environmentally sustainable and carbon-efficient transition. Considering\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Policy briefs&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Policy briefs","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/policy-briefs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Jing Zhang and Christoph Nedopil Wang's policy brief #COP28 analysis","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/socials.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/socials.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/socials.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/socials.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/02\/Power-Risk-in-Foreign-Policy.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1165\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}