As Aaron Friedberg points out, ‘whether for better or for ill, the most significant bilateral international relationship over the course of the next several decades is likely to be that between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’ (Friedberg 2005, 8). How to understand and explain the evolutions as well as predict the future directions of bilateral relations between the two nations has become an imperative task for both policy makers and academic scholars. The current debate on China’s rise, however, tends to make a static prediction, either optimistic or pessimistic, on China’s policy behavior and US\u2013China relations. Borrowing insights from neoclassical realism, I introduce a three-stage, ‘threat\u2013interest’ perceptual model to explain the dynamics of Sino\u2013US relations from 1949 to 2015. I argue that the nature of US\u2013China relations in the past is shaped by leaders\u2019 perceptions of threats and interests in both countries. Since perceptions are socially constructed, the future of US\u2013China relations is by no means pre-determined by the structural competition between the hegemon and the rising power.<\/p>\n
There are five parts in the paper. First, I briefly discuss the ‘static bias’ of the current debate on China’s rise. Then, I theorize the nature of US\u2013China relations, the dependent variable, in this study. I suggest that the bilateral relations between the United States and China can be measured by two dimensions: trend and issue. One the one hand, the main trend of bilateral relations can be categorized as a continuous spectrum between cooperation and competition. On the other hand, the bilateral relations between the United States and China can be organized by different issue areas, such as economic, military, cultural, political, etc. In this research, I highlight economic and military aspects of the relationship while acknowledging that other aspects of the bilateral relationship are also important. The interplay of these features and aspects of a bilateral relationship provide four basic types of relationships between the United States and China: economic cooperation, economic competition, military cooperation, and military competition.<\/p>\n
In the third part, I introduce a three-stage, ‘threat\u2013interest’ model \u2013 a neoclassical realist framework \u2013 to explain the dynamics of US\u2013China relations. I argue that the bilateral relations between the United States and China are shaped by leaders’ perceptions regarding security threats and economic interests. Fourth, I employ the ‘threat\u2013interest’ model to examine the evolution of US\u2013China relations from 1949 to 2015. In conclusion, I suggest that future US\u2013China relations depend on how leaders in both countries manage their mutual perceptions and whether they can find a balance between cooperation and competition in both economic and military arenas.<\/p>\n