{"id":2606,"date":"2016-07-28T16:21:46","date_gmt":"2016-07-28T06:21:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=2606"},"modified":"2023-08-06T16:05:14","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T06:05:14","slug":"anzus-in-trumpland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/anzus-in-trumpland\/","title":{"rendered":"ANZUS in Trumpland\u2014should we have seen it coming?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n<p>Andrew Davies\u2019 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/anzus-in-trumpland\/\">recent post<\/a> on the possibility of Donald Trump as US President presents an interesting alternative future that could cause a fundamental rewrite of our defence plans. In concluding, he noted <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/australian-strategy-tina-problem\/\">Andrew Carr\u2019s concerns<\/a> that the lack of deep thinking about such <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2016\/01\/donald-trump-2016-black-swan-213571\">potential black swan<\/a> events suggests our defence thinking is trapped within strongly institutionalised boundaries. There\u2019s much truth in that, but first let\u2019s unpack the matter.<\/p>\n<p>Alternative futures are useful: the future starts here and spreads out into the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nesta.org.uk\/blog\/speculative-design-design-niche-or-new-tool-government-innovation\">future cone<\/a> that most will be familiar with. You just need to decide what aspects of the range of possible futures form the left and right of arc for planning purposes.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2013\/05\/living-in-the-futures\">Shell Oil Company<\/a> was a major early player in the field, and is credited with foreseeing, in the early 1980s, that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fastcompany.com\/45027\/there-no-alternative\">a seismic change<\/a> was coming in the Soviet Union. The alternative futures method gave Shell an inkling that something was up, while the vast intelligence agencies of the Western defence establishment missed it because the defence agencies dealt in what was expected to happen not what might happen.<\/p>\n<p>To read the full &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/anzus-trumpland-seen-coming\/\">ANZUS in Trumpland\u2014should we have seen it coming?<\/a>&#8221;\u00a0article by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow Peter Layton, please visit\u00a0The Strategist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Andrew Davies\u2019 recent post on the possibility of Donald Trump as US President presents an interesting alternative future that could cause a fundamental rewrite of our defence plans. In concluding, he noted Andrew Carr\u2019s concerns that the lack of deep thinking about such potential black swan events suggests our defence thinking is trapped [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":2607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1057],"tags":[535,1082,441],"class_list":["post-2606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-security","tag-new-zealand","tag-peter-layton","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Christine Kowalski","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ANZUS in Trumpland\u2014should we have seen it coming? 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If some future conflict is short notice however, the Australian Defence Force may lack the logistic backup to be more than a one-shot force, operationally viable\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9989,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/duelling-battle-networks-the-new-equilibrium\/","url_meta":{"origin":2606,"position":1},"title":"Duelling battle networks: The new equilibrium","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"21 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON | With digital technology omnipresent, future major wars will most likely pivot around duelling battle networks. These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5662,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/prototype-warfare-in-the-fourth-industrial-age\/","url_meta":{"origin":2606,"position":2},"title":"Prototype warfare in the fourth industrial age","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| A new industrial process is rapidly emerging.\u00a0 This fourth industrial revolution (4IR) based on hyper-connectivity brings with it both continual \u2013 indeed relentless \u2013 innovation and the possibility of practical large-scale prototype warfare. The interweaving of the second and third industrial revolutions is creating the fourth. This new\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4913,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-tenth-man-wars-changing-nature-in-an-ai-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":2606,"position":3},"title":"\u201cThe tenth man\u201d \u2014 War\u2019s changing nature in an AI world","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a debate underway about the\u00a0nature of war. Some say it\u2019s immutable, others say hogwash; ironically both sides quote Clausewitz for support. Interestingly,\u00a0Secretary of Defense Mattis, once an \u2018immutable\u2019 defender, has now\u00a0declared\u00a0he\u2019s not sure anymore, given recent\u00a0Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0\u00a0developments. At the core of the immutable case is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8667,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/countering-chinas-grey-zone-strategy\/","url_meta":{"origin":2606,"position":4},"title":"Countering China\u2019s grey zone strategy","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| China\u2019s grey zone activities\u00a0grind remorseless on\u00a0but in so doing are creating an opposing pushback. As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. In general,\u00a0grey-zone activities\u00a0involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9984,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-first-casualty-of-war-is-the-truth-myanmar-casualty-statistics-may-be-skewed\/","url_meta":{"origin":2606,"position":5},"title":"The first casualty of war is the truth: Myanmar casualty statistics may be skewed","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"20 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"ANDREW SELTH\u00a0 |\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0Since the latest civil war began in Myanmar in 2021, elements of the opposition movement have been making increasingly bold claims about its battlefield successes and the problems facing the military regime. Some of these claims need to be treated very carefully.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | Indonesia and Southeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | Indonesia and Southeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/indonesia-and-southeast-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Myanmar Armed Forces Day, 2021","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar-military-2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar-military-2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar-military-2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar-military-2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/07\/Trump.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}