{"id":2943,"date":"2016-11-24T09:06:24","date_gmt":"2016-11-23T23:06:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=2943"},"modified":"2023-08-08T10:41:41","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T00:41:41","slug":"modis-gamble-indias-demonetisation-drive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/modis-gamble-indias-demonetisation-drive\/","title":{"rendered":"Modi\u2019s gamble: India\u2019s demonetisation drive"},"content":{"rendered":"

YAN ISLAM<\/a> |<\/p>\n

The Indian economy might experience a sharp growth slowdown next year. This has to be attributed to a dramatic decision, announced personally by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to scrap Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. Thus, on 8 November, at the stroke of midnight \u2013 to evoke a Nehruvian expression \u2013 these notes ceased to be legal tender. The government gave its citizens until the end of the year to exchange these notes for new ones at post offices and banks, but the extant notes were instantly rendered worthless because they were no longer legal tender beyond 8 November. The primary goals were manifold and laudable: to strike a blow against counterfeit currencies which typically targeted these notes; to come down hard on all those who held their ill-gotten, tax-avoided wealth in ‘black money’; and to act as a deterrence against terrorists and criminal organisations who apparently relied heavily on these banned notes.<\/p>\n

While the cheerleaders of the government celebrated this bold action<\/a> and ‘surgical strike’ against real and perceived challenges that were allegedly endemic to the Indian economy, the \u2018shock and awe strategy\u2019 unleashed chaos as millions desperately lined up at post offices, bank branches and ATMs to exchange the banned notes for new ones. The scrapped notes, after all, accounted for 86 per cent of currency in circulation and 51 per cent of the money supply<\/a>. The postal and banking system was simply unable to cope with this unprecedented ‘policy surprise’. It might take several weeks \u2013 or even months \u2013 before the cash crunch is eased. Meanwhile, demonetisation has inflicted a great deal of hardship on the poor, the vulnerable and those of modest means. Scores of deaths have reportedly occurred<\/a>. Hence, some Indians have paid the ultimate price for a policy experiment whose long-term goals may or may not be met.<\/p>\n

\"Queue
Queue at an ATM for INR 100 banknotes in Howrah, India on 8 November 2016. Photo by Biswarup Ganguly, Wikipedia.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The rather adverse consequences of such a major monetary shock is understandable. India is still a cash-intensive economy, and its very large informal economy or unorganised sector as well as other activities such as real estate, agriculture, and the hosting of weddings are heavily dependent on cash transactions.<\/p>\n

India’s dramatic demonetisation has attracted world-wide attention and has become the object of robust critique by many Indian and non-Indian economists. It has attracted scathing editorials in such august publications as the New York Times<\/em><\/a> and the Guardian<\/em><\/a>. Kaushik Basu<\/a>, former World Bank Chief economist, questioned the wisdom of such a move, arguing that the costs will outweigh the benefits. Others \u2013 such as Larry Summers<\/a> \u2013 were alarmed by the ‘most sweeping change in currency policy in the world in decades’. Even those \u2013 such as Kenneth Rogoff<\/a> \u2013 who support the government’s long-term goals are clearly concerned about the unfolding short run costs.<\/p>\n

Provisional estimates on the impact of this demonetisation exercise on GDP range from modest to major. HSBC<\/a> has released estimates which suggest growth to be as much as 1 per cent lower in 2017 than the current 7 per growth rate. N.R. Bhanumurthy<\/a> from the respected National Institute of Public Finance and Policy<\/em> suggest similar numbers. The Ministry of Finance<\/em><\/a> reportedly has a forecast of 5.5 per cent growth rate in the final quarter of 2016.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the most pessimistic scenario is offered by Ambit Capital<\/em><\/a> which has warned of growth grinding to a halt by the second half of 2017 and for growth in 2018 to be no more than 5.8 per cent. Ambit Capital<\/em> points out to a permanent decline in the size of the informal economy by about 20 percentage points within the space of a year! Given the fact that the informal economy accounts for 79 per cent of employment in India, this is a staggering case of enforced structural change that will destroy the livelihood of millions unless they can find alternative sources of employment in the formal sector.<\/p>\n

Article by Yan Islam, Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute and former Chief, Employment and Labour Market Policies Branch, ILO, Geneva.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

YAN ISLAM | The Indian economy might experience a sharp growth slowdown next year. This has to be attributed to a dramatic decision, announced personally by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to scrap Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. 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One of the most important, and yet subtle developments this fortnight was a shift in Australia\u2019s position on the ongoing border tensions between India and China.","rel":"","context":"In "Commentary"","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia Institute - Regional Wrap 54","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10376,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/perspectivesasia-australias-pivot-to-india\/","url_meta":{"origin":2943,"position":1},"title":"Perspectives:Asia | Australia\u2019s pivot to India","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 November 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PERSPECTIVES:ASIA\u00a0|\u00a0ANDREW CHARLTON \u00a0| https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wyZ57trQKAc India is on the rise to become the next global superpower, with a population expected to be larger than the United States and China combined by 2050. For Australia, India has emerged as a new partner offering hope for a more secure and balanced region. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Event - Perspectives:Asia"","block_context":{"text":"Event - Perspectives:Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/events\/perspectives-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(L-R) Simon Elliot, Deputy Director, Collection and Exhibitions at QAGOMA, Dr Andrew Charlton, Member of Parliament for Parramatta and Professor Christoph Nedopil Wang, Director, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University. (Image: Chlo\u00eb Callistemon)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Perspectives-banner-9-11-23.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Perspectives-banner-9-11-23.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Perspectives-banner-9-11-23.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Perspectives-banner-9-11-23.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5292,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/australia-should-brace-for-a-volatile-year-in-foreign-policy-in-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":2943,"position":2},"title":"Australia should brace for a volatile year in foreign policy in 2019","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SUSAN HARRIS RIMMER | By the end of 2019 we should be able to assess how Australia is travelling with the grand plan laid out in the\u00a02017 Foreign Policy White Paper. In this, an election year, I examine the status of our most important international relationships. My verdict: decidedly shaky.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Feature series"","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10002,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/what-might-australia-learn-from-the-nijjar-affair-and-the-breakdown-in-canada-india-relations\/","url_meta":{"origin":2943,"position":3},"title":"What might Australia learn from the Nijjar affair and the breakdown in Canada\u2013India relations?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"25 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"IAN HALL | Justin Trudeau\u2019s\u00a0announcement\u00a0that Canadian authorities suspect India had some role in the killing of Sikh separatist leader\u00a0Hardeep Singh Nijjar\u00a0outside a temple in Surrey, British Columbia on 18 June was dramatic, but hardly unexpected. The Canadian media began speculating about India\u2019s possible involvement soon after Nijjar\u2019s murder, prompted by\u00a0leaks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Region | India and South Asia"","block_context":{"text":"Region | India and South Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/india-and-south-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Activists from the United Hindu Front shout slogans during a protest against Canadian PM Justin Trudeau in New Delhi, India","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/india-canada.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/india-canada.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/india-canada.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/india-canada.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8642,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/explainer-what-exactly-is-the-quad-and-whats-on-the-agenda-for-their-washington-summit\/","url_meta":{"origin":2943,"position":4},"title":"Explainer: What exactly is the Quad and what\u2019s on the agenda for their Washington summit?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"24 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"IAN HALL | On Friday, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the US met in Washington for the first in-person Quad summit. Hosted by US President Joe Biden, the attendees are slated to discuss a series of big issues, from\u00a0COVID-19 to cybersecurity, but China will dominate the conversation. So,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commentary"","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10202,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-outlook-i-nogat-inap-polis-man-na-meri-a-police-shortage-in-papua-new-guinea\/","url_meta":{"origin":2943,"position":5},"title":"Regional Outlook | I Nogat Inap Polis Man na Meri: A police shortage in Papua New Guinea","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"19 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"SEAN JACOBS\u00a0 | 30-MINUTE READ | Contents Download PDF Introduction Crime and the constabulary The problems of a small police force Development partners\u2019 assistance to PNG in relation to policing Why support state-based justice? Benefits of high-volume recruitment and training How would a high-volume recruitment drive work? Measuring success Beware\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Governance and diplomacy"","block_context":{"text":"Governance and diplomacy","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/governance-and-diplomacy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Regional Outlook | I Nogat Inap Polis Man na Meri: A police shortage in Papua New Guinea cover with PNG police image behind.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/RO75-socials.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/RO75-socials.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/RO75-socials.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/RO75-socials.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/RO75-socials.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/RO75-socials.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/11\/Indias-rupee.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2943\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}