{"id":2970,"date":"2016-12-07T08:22:38","date_gmt":"2016-12-06T22:22:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=2970"},"modified":"2017-01-09T14:07:14","modified_gmt":"2017-01-09T04:07:14","slug":"trump-haunts-chinas-dreams","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/trump-haunts-chinas-dreams\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump haunts China&#8217;s dreams"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>China&#8217;s fortunes may or may not be blessed by Donald Trump&#8217;s victory in the US election earlier this month. Just as there are three potentially negative outcomes, there are also three future Asia-Pacific scenarios that would see China\u2019s political influence and economic prospects increase. Whichever occurs, the world will be watching.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Three nightmares<\/h2>\n<p>There are three reasons why Trump&#8217;s electoral victory might not be good for China&#8217;s foreign policy. First, Trump advocated an offshore balancing strategy to retreat from the Asia-Pacific. It may sound nice for China because it can fill the &#8216;strategic vacuum&#8217; left by the US. However, the reality is there is no guarantee of such a vacuum if the US withdraws from the Pacific. Other regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia, will look for closer security ties, even forming new alliances, to deal with China.<\/p>\n<p>The existing US-led &#8216;hub-and-spokes&#8217; system is by no means good for China. However, the strategic uncertainties as a result of a US retreat will be even worse for China&#8217;s strategic environment. Japan and South Korea, even Australia, might choose to develop nuclear weapons for a power equilibrium with a rising China and an ever more dangerous North Korea. The territorial disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea may easily trigger military conflicts among nations, and arms races seem inevitable.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, if Trump reconciles US relations with Russia, China might be singled out as the primary target or threat of the US. Then the US might not retreat from the Pacific. Instead, the US will be able to assemble more resources and energy to squeeze China\u2019s strategic space in the region. For example, the US might buttress its military presence and increase the Freedom of Navigation operations in the disputed South China Sea with cooperation from other states in the region.<\/p>\n<p>If Russia starts to reset relations with the US, it might limit its military cooperation and technology transfers to China. Consequently, China will need a much longer time to catch up with the US militarily. For China, Russia as a US enemy will be China\u2019s friend, but Russia as a US friend might not be good for China.<\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australian_outlook\/trump-haunts-chinas-dreams\/\">Trump haunts China&#8217;s dreams<\/a>&#8221; article in Australian Institute of International Affairs by Griffith Asia Institute Associate Professor Kai He and School of Government and International Relations Senior Lecturer Dr Huiyun Feng.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China&#8217;s fortunes may or may not be blessed by Donald Trump&#8217;s victory in the US election earlier this month. Just as there are three potentially negative outcomes, there are also three future Asia-Pacific scenarios that would see China\u2019s political influence and economic prospects increase. Whichever occurs, the world will be watching. Three nightmares There are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":2986,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[245],"tags":[267,284,534],"class_list":["post-2970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-associate-professor-kai-he","tag-china","tag-dr-huiyun-feng"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Christine Kowalski","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump haunts China&#039;s dreams | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China&#039;s fortunes may or may not be blessed by Donald Trump&#039;s victory in the US election earlier this month. Just as there are three potentially negative\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/trump-haunts-chinas-dreams\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump haunts China&#039;s dreams | Griffith Asia Insights\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China&#039;s fortunes may or may not be blessed by Donald Trump&#039;s victory in the US election earlier this month. 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Export of the New Three\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Green transition and development&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Green transition and development","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/green-transition-and-development\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Green Trade Report 2023","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Green-trade-blog-banner-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Green-trade-blog-banner-1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Green-trade-blog-banner-1.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Green-trade-blog-banner-1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8642,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/explainer-what-exactly-is-the-quad-and-whats-on-the-agenda-for-their-washington-summit\/","url_meta":{"origin":2970,"position":1},"title":"Explainer: What exactly is the Quad and what\u2019s on the agenda for their Washington summit?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"24 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"IAN HALL | On Friday, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the US met in Washington for the first in-person Quad summit. 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So,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10329,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/unlocking-the-green-future-understanding-chinas-green-finance-landscape\/","url_meta":{"origin":2970,"position":2},"title":"Unlocking the green future: Understanding China&#8217;s green finance landscape","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"28 November 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CHRISTOPH NEDOPIL WANG\u00a0AND MATHIAS LUND LARSON\u00a0 |\u00a0 The concept of green finance stands as a beacon for steering businesses towards sustainable and environmentally responsible practices through incentivised financial investments. In the pursuit of unravelling the complexities of green finance, \"The Routledge Handbook of Green Finance,\" edited by Othmar M Lehner,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Green transition and development&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Green transition and development","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/green-transition-and-development\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/green-finance-china.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/green-finance-china.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/green-finance-china.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/green-finance-china.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10152,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-outlook-ten-years-of-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-evolution-and-the-road-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":2970,"position":3},"title":"Regional Outlook | Ten years of China&#8217;s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Evolution and the road ahead","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"18 October 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CHRISTOPH NEDOPIL WANG\u00a0 |\u00a0 \u00a0Griffith Asia Institute and Green Finance and Development Center Joint Working Paper | 20-MINUTE READ | Download PDF Contents Introduction Greening of the BRI From largesse to small and\/but\/or beautiful\u00a0 Improved debt sustainability in the BRI From state-owned companies to private sector green field engagement International\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Green transition and development&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Green transition and development","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/green-transition-and-development\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia Institute Regional Outlook cover 76 - Belt and Road 10 Years","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2023-regional-outlook-76-blog-banner.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8667,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/countering-chinas-grey-zone-strategy\/","url_meta":{"origin":2970,"position":4},"title":"Countering China\u2019s grey zone strategy","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| China\u2019s grey zone activities\u00a0grind remorseless on\u00a0but in so doing are creating an opposing pushback. As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. In general,\u00a0grey-zone activities\u00a0involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11927,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/analysis-chinas-newly-announced-steel-industry-work-plan-2025-26\/","url_meta":{"origin":2970,"position":5},"title":"Analysis &#8211; China\u2019s newly announced steel industry work plan 2025-26","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"8 September 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"CHRISTOPH NEDOPIL\u00a0 | In late August 2025, five leading Chinese ministries issued the new Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025-2026). The work plan provides important signals for the next steps in one of China\u2019s core industries that deals with overcapacity and high climate emissions. Three messages\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Business and innovation&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Business and innovation","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/business-and-innovation\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/iStock-1368100643.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/iStock-1368100643.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/iStock-1368100643.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/iStock-1368100643.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/iStock-1368100643.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/12\/chinas-dreams.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2970"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2970\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2986"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}