{"id":2972,"date":"2016-12-06T09:36:48","date_gmt":"2016-12-05T23:36:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=2972"},"modified":"2023-08-06T16:04:04","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T06:04:04","slug":"the-south-china-seas-worsening-strategic-dilemmas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-south-china-seas-worsening-strategic-dilemmas\/","title":{"rendered":"The South China Sea&#8217;s worsening strategic dilemmas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n<p>The world has moved on but most South China Sea strategies are stuck in the past. For example, Australia\u2019s policies have changed very little <a href=\"http:\/\/dfat.gov.au\/geo\/united-states-of-america\/ausmin\/Pages\/ausmin-joint-communique-2011.aspx\">from 2011<\/a> to today. So instead, let\u2019s think about strategies for the future. China first became <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realinstitutoelcano.org\/wps\/portal\/web\/rielcano_en\/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=\/elcano\/elcano_in\/zonas_in\/asia-pacific\/ari60-2015-chinas-growing-assertiveness-in-the-south-china-sea\">more assertive<\/a> seven years ago; what could the South China Sea be like seven years from now?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/anzus-trumpland-seen-coming\/\">Alternative futures<\/a> represent a way for us to think about possible tomorrows. Imagine that the future lies somewhere between the best of all possible worlds and the worst, somewhere between a cooperative and a conflictual state. Neither extreme future is necessarily more likely than the other, but they allow us to think about the spectrum of possibilities. Using the cooperative and conflictual variables creates two possible alternative 2023s:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-2974 size-full alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/12\/futures.jpg\" alt=\"futures\" width=\"646\" height=\"372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/12\/futures.jpg 646w, https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/12\/futures-300x173.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 646px) 100vw, 646px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/south-china-seas-worsening-strategic-dilemmas\/\">The South China Sea&#8217;s worsening strategic dilemmas<\/a>&#8221; article in The Strategist by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow Peter Layton.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| The world has moved on but most South China Sea strategies are stuck in the past. For example, Australia\u2019s policies have changed very little from 2011 to today. So instead, let\u2019s think about strategies for the future. China first became more assertive seven years ago; what could the South China Sea be like [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":2975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[245],"tags":[284,1082,421],"class_list":["post-2972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-china","tag-peter-layton","tag-south-china-sea"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Christine Kowalski","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The South China Sea&#039;s worsening strategic dilemmas | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| The world has moved on but most South China Sea strategies are stuck in the past. 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These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8667,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/countering-chinas-grey-zone-strategy\/","url_meta":{"origin":2972,"position":1},"title":"Countering China\u2019s grey zone strategy","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| China\u2019s grey zone activities\u00a0grind remorseless on\u00a0but in so doing are creating an opposing pushback. As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. In general,\u00a0grey-zone activities\u00a0involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10364,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/perspectivesasia-surviving-the-new-cold-war-as-a-middle-power\/","url_meta":{"origin":2972,"position":2},"title":"Perspectives:Asia | Surviving the new cold war as a middle power","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sQdLsEG1VeQ PERSPECTIVES:ASIA\u00a0|\u00a0PETER K LEE\u00a0| In the evolving landscape of the Indo-Pacific, middle powers such as Australia are confronted with increasingly complex choices between the United States and China. This new Cold War presents unique challenges and opportunities, and Australia, once navigating a different geopolitical reality, now finds itself among a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Event - Perspectives:Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Event - Perspectives:Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/events\/perspectives-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(L-R) Professor Ian Hall, Acting Director, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University, Dr Peter K Lee, Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre and Korea Foundation Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne\u2019s Asia Institute and Tarun Nagesh, Curatorial Manager, Asian and Pacific Art at QAGOMA. (Image: Chlo\u00eb Callistemon)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/banner-Peter-K-Lee.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7799,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-56\/","url_meta":{"origin":2972,"position":3},"title":"Regional wrap | 56","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"13 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Griffith Asia Institute, fortnightly Regional wrap with Aakriti Bachhawat. One of the most important, and yet subtle developments this fortnight was a shift in Australia\u2019s position on the ongoing border tensions between India and China.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia Institute - Regional Wrap 54","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5292,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/australia-should-brace-for-a-volatile-year-in-foreign-policy-in-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":2972,"position":4},"title":"Australia should brace for a volatile year in foreign policy in 2019","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SUSAN HARRIS RIMMER | By the end of 2019 we should be able to assess how Australia is travelling with the grand plan laid out in the\u00a02017 Foreign Policy White Paper. In this, an election year, I examine the status of our most important international relationships. My verdict: decidedly shaky.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/01\/foreign-policy-volatility-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10652,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/griffith-asia-pacific-strategic-outlook-2024\/","url_meta":{"origin":2972,"position":5},"title":"Griffith Asia-Pacific Strategic Outlook 2024","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"21 March 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Discover the region's challenges and opportunities for sustainable development in the Griffith Asia-Pacific Strategic Outlook 2024!","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GAPSO&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GAPSO","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/gapso\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia-Pacific Strategic Outlook 2024","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/banner-GAPSO-blog.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/banner-GAPSO-blog.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/banner-GAPSO-blog.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/banner-GAPSO-blog.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/12\/china-strategy.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2972\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}