{"id":3297,"date":"2017-04-24T11:50:48","date_gmt":"2017-04-24T01:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3297"},"modified":"2017-08-10T12:20:55","modified_gmt":"2017-08-10T02:20:55","slug":"the-strategic-challenges-of-a-nuclear-north-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-strategic-challenges-of-a-nuclear-north-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"The strategic challenges of a nuclear North Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to trigger strategic anxiety in Asia. Since embarking on a nuclear program in the 1950s, Pyongyang has acquired weapons of mass destruction that can hit targets well beyond the Korean peninsula. The strike radius of the DPRK\u2019s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) forces has steadily expanded since the 1990s, with analysts focusing on the country\u2019s emerging capacity to strike targets on the continental United States. Pyongyang has successfully demonstrated a space launch vehicle capability<\/a>, which is a critical pre-requisite to acquiring an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).<\/p>\n

\u2026it seems credible to assume that North Korea will be able to field a nuclear-armed ICBM force within three to five years.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given the impressive trajectory<\/a> of North Korea\u2019s long-range missile program thus far, coupled with the regime\u2019s declared aspiration to strike the US and its allies, it\u2019s almost certainly only a matter of time before the DPRK acquires an operational ICBM. It is no mean feat to miniaturise a nuclear warhead, but in light of North Korea\u2019s proven track record in the nuclear domain, coupled with its hardcore determination, it must be getting close to achieving this breakthrough capability. Indeed, the declared consensus<\/a> among South Korean and US officials is that Pyongyang has already attained this threshold. These concerns have been magnified recently with reports<\/a> that the North is actively working on a thermonuclear capability as part of its testing program which, if successful, would dramatically multiply the explosive yield of its nuclear forces.<\/p>\n

The DPRK has not been afraid to risk public failure in its missile testing program, but observers are wrong to assume<\/a> this confirms that Pyongyang is incapable of achieving its holy grail of an ICBM that can strike the continental US. Throughout history, all long-range missile programs have been characterised by testing failures. But for determined countries, over time, a j-curve effect emerges where initial failures are replaced by more consistent successes. In terms of prestige, resources, and sheer political will, successive North Korean regimes have invested much in the country\u2019s missile testing programs, and the j-curve effect is already apparent. Estimates vary<\/a>, but it seems credible to assume that North Korea will be able to field a nuclear-armed ICBM force within three to five years. Short of a regime collapse in Pyongyang or war on the Korean peninsula, there appears to be nothing that will prevent this from materialising.<\/p>\n

Please click here to read the full \u201cThe Strategic Challenges of a Nuclear North Korea<\/a>\u201d article in the IAPS Dialogue by Griffith Asia Institute member Professor Andrew O\u2019Neil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to trigger strategic anxiety in Asia. Since embarking on a nuclear program in the 1950s, Pyongyang has acquired weapons of mass destruction that can hit targets well beyond the Korean peninsula. The strike radius of the DPRK\u2019s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) forces has steadily expanded since […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":3298,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[245],"tags":[474,567,475],"class_list":["post-3297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-north-korea","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-professor-andrew-oneil"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nThe strategic challenges of a nuclear North Korea | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"North Korea\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to trigger strategic anxiety in Asia. 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Since then, his decision to continue the onslaught has revealed the ongoing practical costs to the Russian military. Now, Moscow\u2019s attempt to meet those\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commentary"","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the Chairman of the State Council of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Kim Jong-un, 25 April 2019.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8642,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/explainer-what-exactly-is-the-quad-and-whats-on-the-agenda-for-their-washington-summit\/","url_meta":{"origin":3297,"position":2},"title":"Explainer: What exactly is the Quad and what\u2019s on the agenda for their Washington summit?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"24 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"IAN HALL | On Friday, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the US met in Washington for the first in-person Quad summit. Hosted by US President Joe Biden, the attendees are slated to discuss a series of big issues, from\u00a0COVID-19 to cybersecurity, but China will dominate the conversation. So,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commentary"","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/09\/QUAD21.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5352,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-21\/","url_meta":{"origin":3297,"position":3},"title":"Regional wrap","author":"Jill Moriarty","date":"14 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The last fortnight was an especially busy one for the Indo-Pacific region\u2019s policymakers. The US withdrawal from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia delivered a big blow to international non-nuclear proliferation efforts. President Donald Trump accuses Russia of violating the terms of the agreement which has been an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Feature series"","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia Institute - Regional Wrap 54","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/02\/REGIONAL-WRAP-900.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10055,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/policy-brief-an-agenda-for-australia-rok-climate-cooperation-with-southeast-asia\/","url_meta":{"origin":3297,"position":4},"title":"Policy Brief | An agenda for Australia-Republic of Korea climate cooperation with Southeast Asia","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"17 October 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"ALICE NASON\u00a0 |\u00a0 Griffith Asia Institute Policy Brief | 30-MINUTE READ Executive summary Download PDF The intensification of climate change will have dramatic and destructive effects on Southeast Asia. For Australia, whose resilience and prosperity are intrinsically tied to those of its neighbours, preventing or minimising the impact of climate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Green transition and development"","block_context":{"text":"Green transition and development","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/green-transition-and-development\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Griffith Asia Institute Policy Brief cover - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol poses for a photo with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as they meet on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Madrid, 28 June 2022..","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/australia-rok-policy-brief-blog-banner.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/australia-rok-policy-brief-blog-banner.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/australia-rok-policy-brief-blog-banner.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/australia-rok-policy-brief-blog-banner.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10376,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/perspectivesasia-australias-pivot-to-india\/","url_meta":{"origin":3297,"position":5},"title":"Perspectives:Asia | Australia\u2019s pivot to India","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 November 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PERSPECTIVES:ASIA\u00a0|\u00a0ANDREW CHARLTON \u00a0| https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wyZ57trQKAc India is on the rise to become the next global superpower, with a population expected to be larger than the United States and China combined by 2050. For Australia, India has emerged as a new partner offering hope for a more secure and balanced region. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Event - Perspectives:Asia"","block_context":{"text":"Event - Perspectives:Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/events\/perspectives-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(L-R) Simon Elliot, Deputy Director, Collection and Exhibitions at QAGOMA, Dr Andrew Charlton, Member of Parliament for Parramatta and Professor Christoph Nedopil Wang, Director, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University. 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