{"id":3396,"date":"2017-06-01T06:00:43","date_gmt":"2017-05-31T20:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3396"},"modified":"2023-08-06T15:55:59","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T05:55:59","slug":"trapped-in-a-long-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/trapped-in-a-long-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Trapped in a long war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n<p>Australia has been part of America\u2019s long war against terrorism since the war began in 2001. In the first stage (2001\u201302), al-Qaeda in Afghanistan was badly mauled in a quick special forces and airpower campaign. In the second stage (2003\u201312), al-Qaeda\u2019s leader, Osama bin Laden, was killed, the group\u2019s core sharply reduced and its Iraq affiliate crushed. In the third stage (from 2013), ISIS unexpectedly emerged from the remnants of that affiliate and rapidly captured large swathes of territory across Syria and Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>A fourth stage seems imminent. ISIS-held areas are being progressively (if slowly) recaptured. The group <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defenseone.com\/ideas\/2017\/03\/what-isis-will-do-after-mosul\/135930\/?oref=d-river&amp;&amp;&amp;utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief\">appears likely<\/a> to go \u2018underground\u2019 in Sunni areas in Syria and Iraq, adopt guerrilla warfare tactics and try to survive until circumstances change and it can re-emerge. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda has restructured itself and dispersed across the greater Middle East. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usip.org\/publications\/2016\/12\/jihadi-threat-3-whither-al-qaeda\">Syrian franchise<\/a>, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, is the most successful, with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rand.org\/blog\/2016\/11\/al-nusra-is-stronger-than-ever.html\">some 10,000 fighters<\/a>, about a third of them foreign.<\/p>\n<p>Across the Middle East, Australia has deployed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defence.gov.au\/Operations\/\">more than 1,500 ADF<\/a> personnel, who are undertaking train\u2013advise\u2013assist missions, special force activities, air combat operations and naval missions. The defeat of ISIS in Iraq won\u2019t end the need for these deployed forces. Al-Qaeda and ISIS will remain active across the greater Middle East for a considerable time to come. Further deployments to Afghanistan are <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2017-05-12\/malcolm-turnbull-open-to-boosting-australian\/8521492\">being considered<\/a>, while the Trump administration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/2020-foresight-planning-adfs-future-role-middle-east\/printni\/30834\/\">is signalling<\/a> that it would like the Australian train\u2013advise\u2013assist mission to stay in Iraq for the foreseeable future. This deployment may grow further to include a long-term presence in Syria.<\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/trapped-long-war\/\">\u201cTrapped in a long war\u201d<\/a> article in The Strategist by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Australia has been part of America\u2019s long war against terrorism since the war began in 2001. In the first stage (2001\u201302), al-Qaeda in Afghanistan was badly mauled in a quick special forces and airpower campaign. In the second stage (2003\u201312), al-Qaeda\u2019s leader, Osama bin Laden, was killed, the group\u2019s core sharply reduced and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":3398,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[583,581,1082,582],"class_list":["post-3396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-iraq","tag-middle-east","tag-peter-layton","tag-syria"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trapped in a long war | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Australia has been part of America\u2019s long war against terrorism since the war began in 2001. 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As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. 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Some say it\u2019s immutable, others say hogwash; ironically both sides quote Clausewitz for support. Interestingly,\u00a0Secretary of Defense Mattis, once an \u2018immutable\u2019 defender, has now\u00a0declared\u00a0he\u2019s not sure anymore, given recent\u00a0Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0\u00a0developments. At the core of the immutable case is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9989,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/duelling-battle-networks-the-new-equilibrium\/","url_meta":{"origin":3396,"position":2},"title":"Duelling battle networks: The new equilibrium","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"21 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON | With digital technology omnipresent, future major wars will most likely pivot around duelling battle networks. These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5662,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/prototype-warfare-in-the-fourth-industrial-age\/","url_meta":{"origin":3396,"position":3},"title":"Prototype warfare in the fourth industrial age","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| A new industrial process is rapidly emerging.\u00a0 This fourth industrial revolution (4IR) based on hyper-connectivity brings with it both continual \u2013 indeed relentless \u2013 innovation and the possibility of practical large-scale prototype warfare. The interweaving of the second and third industrial revolutions is creating the fourth. This new\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5681,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/mobilising-defence-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution\/","url_meta":{"origin":3396,"position":4},"title":"Mobilising Defence in the \u201cfourth industrial revolution\u201d","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"19 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Australia\u2019s future wars may not run to our timetable. Our recent wars of choice have allowed participation as and when we wished. If some future conflict is short notice however, the Australian Defence Force may lack the logistic backup to be more than a one-shot force, operationally viable\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10364,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/perspectivesasia-surviving-the-new-cold-war-as-a-middle-power\/","url_meta":{"origin":3396,"position":5},"title":"Perspectives:Asia | Surviving the new cold war as a middle power","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sQdLsEG1VeQ PERSPECTIVES:ASIA\u00a0|\u00a0PETER K LEE\u00a0| In the evolving landscape of the Indo-Pacific, middle powers such as Australia are confronted with increasingly complex choices between the United States and China. This new Cold War presents unique challenges and opportunities, and Australia, once navigating a different geopolitical reality, now finds itself among a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Event - Perspectives:Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Event - Perspectives:Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/events\/perspectives-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(L-R) Professor Ian Hall, Acting Director, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University, Dr Peter K Lee, Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre and Korea Foundation Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne\u2019s Asia Institute and Tarun Nagesh, Curatorial Manager, Asian and Pacific Art at QAGOMA. 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