{"id":3409,"date":"2017-06-02T12:00:35","date_gmt":"2017-06-02T02:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3409"},"modified":"2017-06-17T06:42:28","modified_gmt":"2017-06-16T20:42:28","slug":"what-game-theory-says-about-dealing-with-north-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/what-game-theory-says-about-dealing-with-north-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"What game theory says about dealing with North Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

North Korea fired its third missile in three weeks<\/a> on May 29, once again drawing protests from South Korea and Japan. Tensions have been rising in the region since the start of the year when Kim Jong-Un\u2019s regime started a series of tests, of which this is the ninth<\/a>.<\/p>\n

National leaders attending the recent G7 meeting in Italy agreed that deterring North Korea should be a top priority, according to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe<\/a>, but given the reclusive nation\u2019s belligerence, options are scarce.<\/p>\n

One way to try to choose the best way forward is by applying game theory to the situation on the Korean peninsula.<\/p>\n

Roll of the dice<\/h3>\n

Game theory applies to conflict and cooperation within competitive situations. It posits that a cooperative outcome is possible when the game is repeated infinitely, the number of players is small and information about the game is known to all the players.<\/p>\n

A positive outcome is when there\u2019s reciprocalism; when there\u2019s the option of retaliating against cheating behaviour because the game repeats infinitely. Players have little incentive to cheat if retaliation is an option and the result is cooperation.<\/p>\n

But if the game is one-off or repeated a finite number of times, has a large number of players, and each player doesn\u2019t know the other players\u2019 strategy, then each will choose a \u201cself-oriented\u201d outcome. In this scenario, each player chooses the best solution individually rather than cooperating. The result is second-best for all.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s happening on the Korean peninsula is more like the latter scenario. Dealing with North Korea\u2019s missile development and nuclear program with a pre-emptive attack would be neither easy nor desirable, and the main players will likely pursue their own self-interest.<\/p>\n

At the heart of the issue is the fact that North Korea has announced<\/a> that it intends to retaliate against any military action.<\/p>\n

\"People
People in Seoul, which is only 60km from the border, watch North Korean missile tests closely.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This could result in a humanitarian catastrophe as South Korea\u2019s capital Seoul is only 60 kilometres from the border. And the 28,500 US troops based in South Korea<\/a> might also bear the brunt of the North\u2019s retaliation.<\/p>\n

Any counter-attack by North Korea would invoke retaliation from the South, in turn, and could result in war on the Korean peninsula. Or humiliation for both the US and South Korea if they don\u2019t react. The exact locations of North Korea\u2019s missiles are largely unknown anyway.<\/p>\n

A better option for constraining North Korea\u2019s development of nuclear missiles may be to tighten current economic sanctions<\/a> and impose new ones if necessary.<\/p>\n

For this, China is pivotal. The country is North Korea\u2019s number one trading partner<\/a>. China supplies it with petroleum and imports coal, which allows North Korea to obtain foreign currency. More than 90% of the petroleum<\/a> consumed in North Korea is imported from China.<\/p>\n

North Korea\u2019s dependence on China has increased since the UN imposed economic sanctions<\/a> on the former in 2016; Japan terminated its trade relationship<\/a> with the reclusive regime in 2006; and South Korea did the same<\/a> on May 24 2010.<\/p>\n

But China has been hesitant about enforcing economic sanctions and has done so half-heartedly<\/a>.<\/p>\n

China is conflicted because it doesn\u2019t want North Korea to have nuclear weapons<\/a> as the country could then become a direct threat and provide an excuse for Japan and South Korea<\/a> to develop nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

But it also doesn\u2019t want the North Korean regime to collapse. This would create a refugee crisis at its border<\/a> and a unified Korean peninsula would likely fall under US influence<\/a>. North Korea also provides the perfect buffer for avoiding direct confrontation<\/a> with the US.<\/p>\n

Shrinking range of options<\/h3>\n

Thus far, Kim Jong-Un is the only winner in this game. Apart from ongoing missile tests, his regime successfully completed its fifth nuclear test<\/a> in September 2016, following others in 2006, 2009, 2013 and January 2016. This situation illustrates one of the major tensions in strategic settings: the clash between individual and group interests.<\/p>\n

To avoid war and foster cooperation, China will need to share responsibility for a diplomatic campaign seeking a peaceful solution. Currently, it is effectively providing an umbrella<\/a> for North Korea to develop nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

\"Kim
Thus far, Kim Jong-Un is the only winner in this game.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Stepping up requires China to join the US, South Korea, Japan and the United Nations to deliver a credible and strengthened deterrence to North Korea against any further nuclear development.<\/p>\n

But this option is only becoming more complex for all involved except North Korea. As its nuclear development advances, North Korea will have less and less incentive to give it up, which, in turns, limits the range of action for the other side.<\/p>\n

What game theory tells us is that self-interested individuals derive a greater payoff for opportunism. China may not want to lose its strategic partnership with North Korea or the economic benefits it derives from trade with it; under its new liberal president, South Korea may want to continue the rapprochement policy of former president Kim Dae-Jung; and the US may opt for the easy path of military action.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s important to remember that these are all second-best results for the players. The better choice is cooperation among the players including China. A collectively applied and consistent non-military strategy is the best option to alleviate the tension engendered by North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile development programs.<\/p>\n

This article was first\u00a0published in The Conversation<\/a>,\u00a0written by Griffith Asia Institute member, Dr Byung-Seong Min from the Department of International Business and Asian Studies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North Korea fired its third missile in three weeks on May 29, once again drawing protests from South Korea and Japan. Tensions have been rising in the region since the start of the year when Kim Jong-Un\u2019s regime started a series of tests, of which this is the ninth. National leaders attending the recent G7Continue reading “What game theory says about dealing with North Korea”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":3410,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[586,585,474],"class_list":["post-3409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-ballistic-missile","tag-dr-byung-seong-min","tag-north-korea"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nWhat game theory says about dealing with North Korea | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"North Korea fired its third missile in three weeks on May 29, once again drawing protests from South Korea and Japan. 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