{"id":3498,"date":"2017-07-21T06:02:53","date_gmt":"2017-07-20T20:02:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3498"},"modified":"2023-08-06T15:54:19","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T05:54:19","slug":"how-to-complicate-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons-plans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/how-to-complicate-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons-plans\/","title":{"rendered":"How to complicate North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons plans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n<p>North Korea has the strategic initiative. Its plan to build a nuclear armed, long-range missile force is nearing completion. Other countries can do little \u2013 with China&#8217;s ongoing support, sanctions can be evaded and UN resolutions ignored.<\/p>\n<p>Accordingly, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com.au\/entry\/trump-north-korea-nuclear-policy_us_595d67eae4b02e9bdb0a1fe3\">many commentators<\/a> now argue that <a href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2017\/07\/05\/politics\/north-koreas-missile-test-gives-trump-his-biggest-challenge\/index.html\">the Trump administration&#8217;s angst<\/a> will lead nowhere. Instead, a DPRK nuclear rocket force <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/07\/07\/world\/asia\/north-korea-weapons.html\">is inevitable<\/a>, with deterrence the best policy in response, perhaps including anti-missile systems (one <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/76f1ae6a-5b17-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b?mhq5j=e2\">should be careful not to exaggerate<\/a> the effectiveness of anti-missile systems in time of war, however).<\/p>\n<p>There is much to commend this approach. Doing nothing does seem less risky. Moreover, the DPRK&#8217;s nuclear force may be at best boutique. The country&#8217;s intentions, at least at the moment, seems to be building a small road-mobile force equipped with several long-range liquid-fuel rockets armed with relatively low-yield nuclear warheads. This appears, at best, a rather minimal deterrent force. There <a href=\"http:\/\/breakingdefense.com\/2017\/07\/this-is-not-the-icbm-you-are-looking-for-detailed-analysis-of-north-korean-missile\/\">are doubts<\/a> a road-mobile liquid rocket is even sensible \u2013 being somewhat unreliable and inherently unsafe, this technology is not used by any other country.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, the threat that, say, a 20 kiloton weapon (tested by the DPRK <a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/north-koreas-nuclear-program-are-we-heading-for-a_us_59535ffde4b0326c0a8d0c68\">in 2016<\/a>) may possibly strike Honolulu in some future nightmare scenario may well successfully constrain US actions in future Korean peninsula crises. Such <a href=\"http:\/\/nuclearsecrecy.com\/nukemap\/?&amp;kt=20&amp;lat=21.3069444&amp;lng=-157.8583333&amp;hob_opt=1&amp;hob_psi=5&amp;hob_ft=2781&amp;casualties=1&amp;zm=14\">a bomb might kill<\/a> 65,000 and injure 110,000 more. A tiny DPRK force may be enough. Such a line of thought perhaps supports <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vocativ.com\/425099\/nuclear-north-korea-slow-motion-cuban-missile-crisis\/\">those who see<\/a> the current US-DPRK stand-off as being as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis \u2013 a rather worrying prospect.<\/p>\n<p>Channelling John Lennon then, let&#8217;s imagine that the US and its allies were determined to prevent North Korea achieving its nuclear force ambitions. What could be done?<\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/how-complicate-north-korea-s-nuclear-weapons-plans\">\u201cHow to complicate North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons plans\u201d<\/a> article in The Interpreter by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| North Korea has the strategic initiative. Its plan to build a nuclear armed, long-range missile force is nearing completion. Other countries can do little \u2013 with China&#8217;s ongoing support, sanctions can be evaded and UN resolutions ignored. Accordingly, many commentators now argue that the Trump administration&#8217;s angst will lead nowhere. Instead, a DPRK [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":3513,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[245],"tags":[474,1082],"class_list":["post-3498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-north-korea","tag-peter-layton"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to complicate North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons plans | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| North Korea has the strategic initiative. 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These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. 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The story, by two respected Myanmar watchers,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Myanmar pagodas","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5681,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/mobilising-defence-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution\/","url_meta":{"origin":3498,"position":2},"title":"Mobilising Defence in the \u201cfourth industrial revolution\u201d","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"19 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Australia\u2019s future wars may not run to our timetable. Our recent wars of choice have allowed participation as and when we wished. If some future conflict is short notice however, the Australian Defence Force may lack the logistic backup to be more than a one-shot force, operationally viable\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9969,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/as-russia-woos-nations-to-support-its-war-in-ukraine-will-fault-lines-deepen-around-the-globe\/","url_meta":{"origin":3498,"position":3},"title":"As Russia woos nations to support its war in Ukraine, will fault lines deepen around the\u00a0globe?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"13 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"MATTHEW SUSSEX | For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the\u00a0mistaken belief\u00a0that he could conquer much of Ukraine in a few days highlighted the depth of his hubris. Since then, his decision to continue the onslaught has revealed the ongoing practical costs to the Russian military. Now, Moscow\u2019s attempt to meet those\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the Chairman of the State Council of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Kim Jong-un, 25 April 2019.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4913,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-tenth-man-wars-changing-nature-in-an-ai-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":3498,"position":4},"title":"\u201cThe tenth man\u201d \u2014 War\u2019s changing nature in an AI world","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a debate underway about the\u00a0nature of war. Some say it\u2019s immutable, others say hogwash; ironically both sides quote Clausewitz for support. Interestingly,\u00a0Secretary of Defense Mattis, once an \u2018immutable\u2019 defender, has now\u00a0declared\u00a0he\u2019s not sure anymore, given recent\u00a0Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0\u00a0developments. 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The interweaving of the second and third industrial revolutions is creating the fourth. 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