{"id":3498,"date":"2017-07-21T06:02:53","date_gmt":"2017-07-20T20:02:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3498"},"modified":"2023-08-06T15:54:19","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T05:54:19","slug":"how-to-complicate-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons-plans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/how-to-complicate-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons-plans\/","title":{"rendered":"How to complicate North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons plans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n<p>North Korea has the strategic initiative. Its plan to build a nuclear armed, long-range missile force is nearing completion. Other countries can do little \u2013 with China&#8217;s ongoing support, sanctions can be evaded and UN resolutions ignored.<\/p>\n<p>Accordingly, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com.au\/entry\/trump-north-korea-nuclear-policy_us_595d67eae4b02e9bdb0a1fe3\">many commentators<\/a> now argue that <a href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2017\/07\/05\/politics\/north-koreas-missile-test-gives-trump-his-biggest-challenge\/index.html\">the Trump administration&#8217;s angst<\/a> will lead nowhere. Instead, a DPRK nuclear rocket force <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/07\/07\/world\/asia\/north-korea-weapons.html\">is inevitable<\/a>, with deterrence the best policy in response, perhaps including anti-missile systems (one <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/76f1ae6a-5b17-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b?mhq5j=e2\">should be careful not to exaggerate<\/a> the effectiveness of anti-missile systems in time of war, however).<\/p>\n<p>There is much to commend this approach. Doing nothing does seem less risky. Moreover, the DPRK&#8217;s nuclear force may be at best boutique. The country&#8217;s intentions, at least at the moment, seems to be building a small road-mobile force equipped with several long-range liquid-fuel rockets armed with relatively low-yield nuclear warheads. This appears, at best, a rather minimal deterrent force. There <a href=\"http:\/\/breakingdefense.com\/2017\/07\/this-is-not-the-icbm-you-are-looking-for-detailed-analysis-of-north-korean-missile\/\">are doubts<\/a> a road-mobile liquid rocket is even sensible \u2013 being somewhat unreliable and inherently unsafe, this technology is not used by any other country.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, the threat that, say, a 20 kiloton weapon (tested by the DPRK <a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/north-koreas-nuclear-program-are-we-heading-for-a_us_59535ffde4b0326c0a8d0c68\">in 2016<\/a>) may possibly strike Honolulu in some future nightmare scenario may well successfully constrain US actions in future Korean peninsula crises. Such <a href=\"http:\/\/nuclearsecrecy.com\/nukemap\/?&amp;kt=20&amp;lat=21.3069444&amp;lng=-157.8583333&amp;hob_opt=1&amp;hob_psi=5&amp;hob_ft=2781&amp;casualties=1&amp;zm=14\">a bomb might kill<\/a> 65,000 and injure 110,000 more. A tiny DPRK force may be enough. Such a line of thought perhaps supports <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vocativ.com\/425099\/nuclear-north-korea-slow-motion-cuban-missile-crisis\/\">those who see<\/a> the current US-DPRK stand-off as being as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis \u2013 a rather worrying prospect.<\/p>\n<p>Channelling John Lennon then, let&#8217;s imagine that the US and its allies were determined to prevent North Korea achieving its nuclear force ambitions. What could be done?<\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/how-complicate-north-korea-s-nuclear-weapons-plans\">\u201cHow to complicate North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons plans\u201d<\/a> article in The Interpreter by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| North Korea has the strategic initiative. Its plan to build a nuclear armed, long-range missile force is nearing completion. Other countries can do little \u2013 with China&#8217;s ongoing support, sanctions can be evaded and UN resolutions ignored. Accordingly, many commentators now argue that the Trump administration&#8217;s angst will lead nowhere. Instead, a DPRK<a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/how-to-complicate-north-koreas-nuclear-weapons-plans\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"sr-only\">&#8220;How to complicate North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons plans&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":3513,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[474,1082],"class_list":["post-3498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-north-korea","tag-peter-layton"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How to complicate North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons plans | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| North Korea has the strategic initiative. 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