{"id":3674,"date":"2017-10-18T16:28:01","date_gmt":"2017-10-18T06:28:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3674"},"modified":"2023-10-18T08:24:25","modified_gmt":"2023-10-17T22:24:25","slug":"belt-and-road-the-case-for-wait-and-see","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/belt-and-road-the-case-for-wait-and-see\/","title":{"rendered":"Belt and Road: The case for \u2018wait and see\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/ian-hall\/\">IAN HALL<\/a> |<\/p>\n<p>Nick Bisley is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/australia-s-oddly-absent-belt-and-road-strategy\">right<\/a>\u00a0to call for a clearer \u2013 and I would add more confident \u2013 Australian strategy towards China. But should this involve signing up to President Xi Jinping&#8217;s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? I am not convinced.<\/p>\n<p>BRI is long on rhetoric and unclear in design. According to Xi,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2017-05\/14\/c_136282982.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">speaking at the Belt and Road Forum back in May<\/a>, BRI is intended to build &#8216;peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefit&#8217;, rekindling the supposed spirit of the old Silk Road. It is meant to help realise the &#8216;China Dream&#8217; (one\u00a0of Xi&#8217;s signature concepts) at home and to export China&#8217;s economic wisdom abroad.<\/p>\n<p>Yet as Peter Cai recently argued in perhaps\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/publications\/understanding-belt-and-road-initiative\">the best short account of BRI<\/a>, the initiative is also an attempt to address chronic security and economic challenges. It is intended to strengthen Beijing&#8217;s hold over Tibet and Xinjiang by accelerating economic development with a westward flow of capital and improved connectivity into Central Asia. It is also intended to address overcapacity in the cement and steel industries, and diminishing returns on domestically invested capital.<\/p>\n<p>Internationally, BRI is supposed to enhance China&#8217;s security by making its neighbourhood more prosperous, especially by constructing infrastructure that Chinese firms can use for trade and investment (and that China&#8217;s military might use to project power, if required). And it is a vehicle by which China can internationalise its currency and impose its regulatory standards on its trading partners.<\/p>\n<p>Just how Beijing wants to realise BRI and whether the initiative will generate the benefits it trumpets is less obvious. So far, the view of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/03\/04\/world\/asia\/china-xi-jinping-economic-reform.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">most informed observers<\/a>\u00a0is that Xi&#8217;s government has not performed well on economic reform, which in turn raises serious questions about its capacity to deliver on BRI. In any event, persuading Chinese firms (even state-owned enterprises)\u00a0to invest in environments they don&#8217;t know well in China&#8217;s west or beyond will be hard despite the manifest coercive capacity of the Chinese state.<\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/belt-and-road-case-wait-and-see\">\u201cBelt and Road: The case for &#8216;wait and see&#8217;\u201d<\/a>\u00a0article in the Lowy Interpreter by Griffith Asia Institute Member, Professor Ian Hall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IAN HALL | Nick Bisley is\u00a0right\u00a0to call for a clearer \u2013 and I would add more confident \u2013 Australian strategy towards China. But should this involve signing up to President Xi Jinping&#8217;s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? I am not convinced. BRI is long on rhetoric and unclear in design. According to Xi,\u00a0speaking at the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":3675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[245],"tags":[651,1922,653,284,1293,588],"class_list":["post-3674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-belt-and-road","tag-belt-and-road-initiative-bri","tag-bri","tag-china","tag-ian-hall","tag-one-belt-one-road"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Belt and Road: The case for \u2018wait and see\u2019 | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"IAN HALL | Nick Bisley is\u00a0right\u00a0to call for a clearer \u2013 and I would add more confident \u2013 Australian strategy towards China. 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