{"id":3680,"date":"2017-10-23T08:30:44","date_gmt":"2017-10-22T22:30:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3680"},"modified":"2023-08-06T15:40:23","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T05:40:23","slug":"on-a-trumpian-track-for-the-next-middle-east-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/on-a-trumpian-track-for-the-next-middle-east-war\/","title":{"rendered":"On a Trumpian track for the next Middle East war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n<p>In some respects, US President Donald Trump and the Iranian theocratic regime deserve each other.<\/p>\n<p>Neither respect international agreements, except when it suits their purposes. Trump&#8217;s badmouthing of the Iranian nuclear agreement is of one with his behaviour over the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris climate agreement, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and US alliances more generally. On the other hand, the Iranian regime has often flouted international agreements in even more dramatic fashion &#8211; taking US\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2014\/10\/27\/world\/ac-six-things-you-didnt-know-about-the-iran-hostage-crisis\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">diplomats hostage<\/a>\u00a0for more than a year was just the most spectacular and egregious example.<\/p>\n<p>Trump, however, has some valid points. The Iranian regime is indeed a major player in conflicts across the Middle East, being actively involved in Syria and Iraq, interfering in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/us-increasingly-sees-irans-hand-in-the-arming-of-bahraini-militants\/2017\/04\/01\/be5e61fc-1329-11e7-833c-503e1f6394c9_story.html?tid=sm_tw&amp;utm_term=.9d835566b325\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bahrain<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/09\/18\/world\/middleeast\/iran-houthis-fifth-fleet-admiral.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yemen<\/a>, and relentlessly advancing its long-range\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iran-satellite-un\/at-u-n-western-powers-warn-iran-rocket-test-a-threatening-step-idUSKBN1AI1UH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">missile technology<\/a>. Trump says that in continuing with these activities, Iran is acting\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2017\/10\/trump-iran-lived-spirit-nuclear-deal-171006050839554.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">against the spirit<\/a>\u00a0of the nuclear agreement,\u00a0the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). But the agreement is all about nuclear matters, not these other bugbears.<\/p>\n<p>In many respects, the JCPOA continues a tradition set by Cold War US presidents who\u00a0negotiated with &#8216;the evil empire&#8217; over nuclear arms in the knowledge that US-USSR competition would continue unabated elsewhere. These earlier presidents took a realist position, seeing things as they were and advancing US interests as they could rather than as they might wish. Trump is at odds with the traditional &#8216;realist&#8217; US approach to negotiations which even Reagan followed.<\/p>\n<p>But maybe this is all a bit of a red herring. The JCPOA may be an important issue in the Trump Administration&#8217;s Iranian angst, but it is arguably not its most pressing. The war against Islamic State in Iraq is drawing to a close, but neither Iran nor the US want to go home and leave Iraq to the Iraqis. The most pressing issue seems to be that both Iran and the US want the other to leave.<\/p>\n<p>Please click here to read the full\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/trumpian-track-our-next-middle-eastern-war\">\u201cOn a Trumpian track for the next Middle East war\u201d<\/a>\u00a0article published at The Lowy Interpreter,\u00a0written by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| In some respects, US President Donald Trump and the Iranian theocratic regime deserve each other. Neither respect international agreements, except when it suits their purposes. Trump&#8217;s badmouthing of the Iranian nuclear agreement is of one with his behaviour over the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris climate agreement, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":3682,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[233],"tags":[619,620,1082,570],"class_list":["post-3680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feature-series","tag-iran","tag-nuclear-agreement","tag-peter-layton","tag-trump"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>On a Trumpian track for the next Middle East war | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| In some respects, US President Donald Trump and the Iranian theocratic regime deserve each other. 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The story, by two respected Myanmar watchers,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Myanmar pagodas","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/myanmar.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8667,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/countering-chinas-grey-zone-strategy\/","url_meta":{"origin":3680,"position":2},"title":"Countering China\u2019s grey zone strategy","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| China\u2019s grey zone activities\u00a0grind remorseless on\u00a0but in so doing are creating an opposing pushback. As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. In general,\u00a0grey-zone activities\u00a0involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4913,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-tenth-man-wars-changing-nature-in-an-ai-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":3680,"position":3},"title":"\u201cThe tenth man\u201d \u2014 War\u2019s changing nature in an AI world","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a debate underway about the\u00a0nature of war. Some say it\u2019s immutable, others say hogwash; ironically both sides quote Clausewitz for support. Interestingly,\u00a0Secretary of Defense Mattis, once an \u2018immutable\u2019 defender, has now\u00a0declared\u00a0he\u2019s not sure anymore, given recent\u00a0Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0\u00a0developments. At the core of the immutable case is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5681,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/mobilising-defence-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution\/","url_meta":{"origin":3680,"position":4},"title":"Mobilising Defence in the \u201cfourth industrial revolution\u201d","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"19 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Australia\u2019s future wars may not run to our timetable. Our recent wars of choice have allowed participation as and when we wished. If some future conflict is short notice however, the Australian Defence Force may lack the logistic backup to be more than a one-shot force, operationally viable\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9989,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/duelling-battle-networks-the-new-equilibrium\/","url_meta":{"origin":3680,"position":5},"title":"Duelling battle networks: The new equilibrium","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"21 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON | With digital technology omnipresent, future major wars will most likely pivot around duelling battle networks. These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2017\/10\/Trumpian-track-900x500-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}