{"id":3999,"date":"2018-02-02T12:00:11","date_gmt":"2018-02-02T02:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=3999"},"modified":"2018-02-02T08:42:50","modified_gmt":"2018-02-01T22:42:50","slug":"why-a-first-strike-option-on-north-korea-is-a-very-bad-idea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/why-a-first-strike-option-on-north-korea-is-a-very-bad-idea\/","title":{"rendered":"Why a first strike option on North Korea is a very bad idea"},"content":{"rendered":"

The prospect of South Korean and North Korean athletes\u00a0marching together under a \u201cunification\u201d flag<\/a>\u00a0at this month\u2019s Pyeongchang Winter Olympics signifies a brief respite in tensions rather than being a genuine thawing on the Korean peninsula.<\/p>\n

After an initial surge of optimism in response to Pyongyang\u2019s decision to accept Seoul\u2019s offer to march as one Korea, reality has started to bite with the mechanics of implementing the deal.<\/p>\n

While welcoming the Pyeongchang initiative, many South Koreans have\u00a0pushed back\u00a0<\/a>against the decision to merge both countries\u2019 women\u2019s ice hockey teams, calling out the sexist nature of the decision (not a single woman was involved in determining the merger).<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, citing \u201cinsulting\u201d behaviour on the part of South Korean media, the North Koreans have\u00a0cancelled<\/a>\u00a0a joint cultural performance with South Korea, scheduled for next week.<\/p>\n

Understandably, the Pyeongchang \u201cthaw\u201d has attracted major headlines. But it obscures the significant possibility that we will witness major conflict on the Korean peninsula in 2018.<\/p>\n

The South Korean government has worked hard to engage North Korea in structured dialogue in an effort to defuse the nuclear-armed state\u2019s continued military threats. But there is nonetheless a growing\u00a0risk<\/a>\u00a0that the Trump administration will authorise limited military strikes against the North\u2019s weapons of mass destruction, conceivably within the next few months.<\/p>\n

Despite extracting a commitment from the US that any military action against North Korea is contingent on first gaining South Korea\u2019s endorsement, there is\u00a0justifiable concern<\/a>\u00a0among South Koreans that the Trump administration will act unilaterally if US intelligence assesses Pyongyang is about to deploy an operational nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force.<\/p>\n

Given the extent to which we have underestimated the sheer pace of North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile development over the past decade, this intelligence assessment might happen sooner than we think. Donald Trump would then face a difficult problem: how to avoid being the president who allowed North Korea to achieve the capability to hit the US homeland with nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Since coming to power, the Trump administration\u00a0has been deliberating<\/a>\u00a0over whether to carry out preventive strikes to degrade Pyongyang\u2019s ability to sprint to the finish line of acquiring a deployable ICBM that can hit the continental US with a nuclear payload.<\/p>\n

An\u00a0increasingly popular assumption<\/a>\u00a0is that the price of living with a nuclear-armed North Korea that can destroy prime targets on the US mainland is higher than risking a second Korean War. And this is not just the musings of a few hardheads in the Pentagon:\u00a0a growing number of Americans<\/a>\u00a0believe some form of military action against North Korea is justified if sanctions and diplomacy fail to achieve denuclearisation.<\/p>\n

Most worrying of all, a belief seems to be gathering pace that the US can somehow launch \u201csurgical\u201d military strikes while containing a larger conflict, because Kim Jong-un will not respond for fear of triggering an overwhelming retaliatory response.<\/p>\n

There are two basic flaws underlying what\u00a0one expert<\/a>\u00a0has termed \u201cthe myth of the limited strike\u201d. The first, and most obvious, is that it\u2019s highly unlikely Kim Jong-un will believe the Trump administration\u2019s assurances that \u201csurgical\u201d strikes are not the opening phase of an all-out US assault aimed at overthrowing the regime.<\/p>\n

When the US goes to war, it tends to go full throttle \u2013 in recent times, this has translated into regime change (think of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya). Why would the leadership in Pyongyang assess that this time around would be any different?<\/p>\n

The second major flaw in the argument is that what is portrayed as limited in Washington, and among some\u00a0armchair strategists<\/a>\u00a0supporting this course, will inevitably be seen in Pyongyang as a major assault on North Korean territory and its prized strategic assets.<\/p>\n

Even in the scenario that Kim Jong-un actually believed the Trump administration did not intend to implement regime change, as\u00a0Van Jackson<\/a>\u00a0notes, his position as North Korean supreme leader would be untenable domestically if he did not respond with force.<\/p>\n

Pyongyang would have a compelling incentive to retaliate early with any nuclear reserve that survived a US first strike. In this scenario, the North Korean leadership would confront a stark choice of either using these weapons of mass destruction to maximum effect or risk losing them in follow-on US precision munition strikes.<\/p>\n

As I have argued\u00a0elsewhere<\/a>, like all new nuclear powers, North Korea will place a premium on permissive command and control systems that allow authorities to use nuclear weapons whenever they want. This will be reflected in a hair-trigger launch posture if it perceives an imminent threat.<\/p>\n

Whichever way you cut it, a US first strike against North Korea would almost certainly trigger major war on the Korean peninsula, with a high risk of escalation to full-scale nuclear conflict. While the appalling humanitarian consequences of this don\u2019t need to be spelt out, the strategic illogic of the arguments advocating a first strike must be continually reinforced.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Griffith Asia Institute member, Professor Andrew O’Neil and first appeared in The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The prospect of South Korean and North Korean athletes\u00a0marching together under a \u201cunification\u201d flag\u00a0at this month\u2019s Pyeongchang Winter Olympics signifies a brief respite in tensions rather than being a genuine thawing on the Korean peninsula. After an initial surge of optimism in response to Pyongyang\u2019s decision to accept Seoul\u2019s offer to march as one Korea, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":4000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[233,245],"tags":[474,475,680,422,441],"class_list":["post-3999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feature-series","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-north-korea","tag-professor-andrew-oneil","tag-pyeongchang-winter-olympics","tag-south-korea","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nWhy a first strike option on North Korea is a very bad idea | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 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