{"id":4094,"date":"2018-03-12T10:30:56","date_gmt":"2018-03-12T00:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=4094"},"modified":"2018-03-22T06:17:35","modified_gmt":"2018-03-21T20:17:35","slug":"why-trumps-tariffs-will-have-little-impact-on-australia-and-a-trade-war-is-unlikely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/why-trumps-tariffs-will-have-little-impact-on-australia-and-a-trade-war-is-unlikely\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Trump\u2019s tariffs will have little impact on Australia and a trade war is unlikely"},"content":{"rendered":"

US President Donald Trump has\u00a0levied a 25%<\/a>\u00a0tariff on steel and a\u00a010% tariff on aluminium<\/a>imported from all countries except Canada and Mexico. Trump had\u00a0hinted<\/a>\u00a0that the trade protections would exclude Australia, but it wasn\u2019t explicitly exempted.<\/p>\n

Regardless, import tariffs on steel and aluminium will have only a small impact on the Australian economy, as Australia isn\u2019t a large exporter of steel or aluminium. What Australia does export to the United States is covered by a free trade agreement.<\/p>\n

Even though the European Union, China and other countries will have tariffs levied on their steel and aluminium exports, the US move is unlikely to escalate into a trade war. The\u00a0World Trade Organisation<\/a>\u00a0has powers to sanction countries that arbitrarily impose tariffs.<\/p>\n

And Trump\u2019s justification for the tariffs in the first place, that the United States is losing something due to running trade deficits, has been thoroughly debunked by modern economics.<\/p>\n

A tariff imposed on any good is an extra tax that raises its sale price equivalently, making it less attractive to buyers than the domestically made product.<\/p>\n

There could be some concern if the United States extends tariffs to beef, other meat products, aircraft parts, pharmaceuticals and alcoholic beverages. These goods comprise\u00a0the top five Australian exports to the United States<\/a>\u00a0and account for considerably larger trade volumes than steel and aluminium.<\/p>\n

Yet there is no reason to expect tariffs will suddenly be imposed on these major exports, given the provisions of the\u00a0Australia\u2013United States Free Trade Agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This agreement comprehensively covers trade in goods and services, as well as investment flows, between the two nations. It eliminated many of the pre-existing tariffs affecting trade.<\/p>\n

US Vice President Mike Pence has even\u00a0described<\/a>\u00a0this free trade agreement as \u201ca model for the world\u201d.<\/p>\n

Top Australian exports to the United States 2016-2017<\/span><\/h3>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/th>\n
\n
MERCHANDISE<\/div>\n<\/th>\n
\n
VALUE OF EXPORTS<\/div>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nBeef<\/span><\/td>\nA$1,493,923,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nMeat (excluding beef)<\/span><\/td>\nA$934,918,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nAircraft, spacecraft & parts<\/span><\/td>\nA$855,683,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nPharmaceutical products<\/span><\/td>\nA$658,874,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nAlcoholic beverages<\/span><\/td>\nA$485,189,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nMedical instruments<\/span><\/td>\nA$410,925,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nMisc manufacturered articles<\/span><\/td>\nA$358,230,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nTelecom equipment & parts<\/span><\/td>\nA$269,994,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nStarches, insulin & wheat gluten<\/span><\/td>\nA$267,911,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nMeasuring & analysing instruments<\/span><\/td>\nA$234,969,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\nGold coin & legal tender coin<\/span><\/td>\nA$232,129,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\nUncoated flat-rolled iron & steel<\/span><\/td>\nA$170,574,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\nAluminium<\/span><\/td>\nA$165,082,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\nMedicaments (incl veterinary)<\/span><\/td>\nA$151,567,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\nVehicle parts & accessories<\/span><\/td>\nA$147,934,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\nGold<\/span><\/td>\nA$146,867,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>\nZinc<\/span><\/td>\nA$144,191,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>\nPaper & paperboard<\/span><\/td>\nA$128,818,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>\nPearls & gems<\/span><\/td>\nA$110,913,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>\nPassenger motor vehicles<\/span><\/td>\nA$101,836,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The World Trade Organisation to the rescue?<\/h2>\n

In 2002, President George W. Bush\u00a0imposed tariffs<\/a>\u00a0of up to 30% on imported steel in the midst of major structural change in the US steel industry. Major steel exporters Canada and Mexico were exempt from the Bush tariffs under the provisions of the\u00a0North America Free Trade Agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The World Trade Organisation\u00a0rejected the Bush administration\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0claim that the tariffs were justifiable due to a surge in steel imports. The justification for the Trump tariffs is\u00a0based on national security grounds<\/a>, so it remains to be seen how the the World Trade Organisation will decide on the tariffs.<\/p>\n

But there are grounds for hoping history will repeat and the World Trade Organisation will slap down the new tariffs, given the possible trade ramifications if\u00a0countries retaliate with their own tariffs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If the World Trade Organisation upholds the Trump tariffs, it could herald the end of the international trading system that has operated passably well over recent decades.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s new mercantilism?<\/h2>\n

Trump frequently laments the persistent trade deficits the United States runs against other major economies, notably China, Japan and Germany, and refers to these deficits to justify protectionist measures.<\/p>\n

But this argument isn\u2019t new \u2013 the idea that trade deficits are \u201cbad\u201d for an economy has been around since economics as an academic discipline began.<\/p>\n

For instance,\u00a0one strand of economics<\/a>\u00a0from Elizabethan England advocated achieving trade surpluses as the means to national prosperity.\u00a0In the words<\/a>\u00a0of a leading proponent, Thomas Mun, it was necessary to \u201csell more to strangers yearly than we consume of theirs in value\u201d.<\/p>\n

But this doctrine has been soundly debunked, first\u00a0by the father of economics, Adam Smith<\/a>, and modern economic theory has since confirmed Smith\u2019s position.<\/p>\n

Modern economics<\/a>\u00a0shows that trade and current account deficits (a broader measure of trade that includes international money flows) are not problematic. This is because they are inflows of capital that can lead to increased domestic investment.<\/p>\n

In other words, running a trade or current account deficit can actually assist economic growth,\u00a0just as it has for Australia<\/a>, by enabling lower long-term interest rates and higher capital accumulation than otherwise.<\/p>\n

The major exception to this is when foreign capital inflow finances government budget deficits, thereby strengthening the local currency and worsening international competitiveness.<\/p>\n

Ironically, the American manufacturing sector could suffer greater damage from lost international competitiveness than from cheap steel and aluminium imports.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Griffith Asia Institute member, Professor Tony Makin and first appeared in\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US President Donald Trump has\u00a0levied a 25%\u00a0tariff on steel and a\u00a010% tariff on aluminiumimported from all countries except Canada and Mexico. Trump had\u00a0hinted\u00a0that the trade protections would exclude Australia, but it wasn\u2019t explicitly exempted. Regardless, import tariffs on steel and aluminium will have only a small impact on the Australian economy, as Australia isn\u2019t a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":4096,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[708,401,707,570,441],"class_list":["post-4094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-import-tariff","tag-professor-tony-makin","tag-trade","tag-trump","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nWhy Trump\u2019s tariffs will have little impact on Australia and a trade war is unlikely | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US President Donald Trump has\u00a0levied a 25%\u00a0tariff on steel and a\u00a010% tariff on aluminiumimported from all countries except Canada and Mexico. 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