{"id":4174,"date":"2018-04-17T08:30:13","date_gmt":"2018-04-16T22:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=4174"},"modified":"2023-08-06T14:36:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T04:36:01","slug":"an-alternative-to-the-rules-based-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/an-alternative-to-the-rules-based-order\/","title":{"rendered":"An alternative to the rules-based order?"},"content":{"rendered":"

PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a\u00a0fundamental problem<\/a>\u00a0in Australia\u2019s relationship with China: China\u2019s growth advances prosperity but menaces security. If the rules-based order construct does not suit volatile times\u2014and balancing threatens war\u2014is there an alternative?<\/p>\n

China\u2019s rise as a major trading partner has been matched by large-scale\u00a0cyber espionage<\/a>, prickly\u00a0mercantilist policies<\/a>,\u00a0domestic repression<\/a>\u00a0extending to include\u00a0overseas Chinese,<\/a>\u00a0and, most visibly, South China Sea\u00a0territorial expansionism<\/a>. Reflecting this dichotomy, the Turnbull government is advancing Australia\u2019s\u00a0free trade agreement<\/a>\u00a0with Beijing while also advocating\u00a0standing up<\/a>\u00a0to China and debating\u00a0sending warships<\/a>\u00a0into the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

Officially, this disconnect is subsumed within the rules-based order construct that explains how we should think about and manage the relationship. This type of order though has inherent shortcomings that are becoming increasingly apparent. Given China\u2019s recent assertiveness, some now propose balancing. But neither approach adequately fits Australia\u2019s circumstances; new thinking is needed.<\/p>\n

Following the rules?<\/h4>\n

Under a rules-based order, states only take actions that conform to agreed rules and norms. It is a consensual order with change managed by multilateral institutions and diplomacy. Given that states inevitably hold differing opinions, agreement by all concerned can be hard to get. A rules-based order is inherently unresponsive to change and can badly lag real-world events.<\/p>\n

In 1995, China occupied Mischief Reef in the South China Sea. In response, local states worked hard, eventually producing the 2002\u00a0Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea<\/a>. Since then, all involved have worked hard towards a code of conduct. Agreement may\u00a0be reached this year<\/a>\u2014although significant differences remain\u2014but since the mid-1990s circumstances in the South China Sea have evolved dramatically with China building seven large\u00a0dual-use civil-military facilities<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0another possibly<\/a>\u00a0on the way. A rules-based order construct seems best suited for when change is slow paced and predictable, rather then for times like now when the international system is volatile and abrupt switches happen.<\/p>\n

Moreover, China\u2019s\u00a0ongoing actions<\/a>\u00a0in the South China Sea and\u00a0its disdain<\/a>\u00a0for the 2016 Hague Tribunal ruling on these actions highlights a second problem with the rules-based order: enforcement. In the anarchical international system of sovereign states there are no policemen.<\/p>\n

A dangerous balance<\/h4>\n

Trying to address this, many rules-based order concepts now include balancing as a subordinate element. Balancing involves a state threatening or using violence to dissuade the adversary from taking unwanted actions. As an example, Australia\u2019s\u00a02016 Defence White Paper<\/a>\u00a0declares: \u201cThe Government is committed to making practical and effective military contributions\u2026to maintain the rules-based order\u2026.\u201d The recent\u00a02018 US National Defense Strategy<\/a>\u00a0goes further and, for practical purposes, elevates balancing to equal status with the rules-based order.<\/p>\n

Balancing is based on realist concepts diametrically opposed to the rules-based order\u2019s liberalist notions, which makes combining the two problematic. The major incoherence is that combining the two implies that states must comply with the rules they have agreed to or else there will be war. Stressing cooperation while relying on armed conflict to solve the more difficult issues is an unsuitable basis for a stable international order.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, the rules-based order has proven straightforward for states to manipulate to their own advantage. In the South China Sea, China uses diplomacy, economic power, naval forces, threats, low-level violence, information management and international law arguments to adjust its boundaries with several ASEAN states unilaterally. All while continuing to claim adherence to the rule-based order, or rather with the rules it agrees with. China has been strikingly successful in achieving its national objective of territorial expansion and in demonstrating how to best exploit a rules-based order. Is there another type of order that might be more effective and less susceptible to purposeful manipulation?<\/p>\n

The main alternative in play, balancing, seems inappropriate given China is a key economic power in the international system and that using balancing in the established manner involves threatening or waging war. Do we wish to adopt an order that in its normal workings might result in a major war with China? Is this move sensible given China may soon be the world\u2019s largest economy (on PPP measures) and has 20 per cent of the world\u2019s people?<\/p>\n

Interdependence<\/h4>\n

An alternative, offered here to provoke debate, is\u00a0Robert Keohane\u2019s and Joe Nye\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0complex interdependence. This has three main characteristics: multiple formal and informal channels connect societies; interstate relationships consist of many issues without any single issue dominating; and no use is made of military threats or force. For each issue area, each state has different interdependence sensitivities (short-term impact) and vulnerabilities (long-term impact) that can be purposefully exploited to obtain the objectives sought. China, or more precisely the Chinese Communist Party regime, has numerous exploitable sensitivities and vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n

The order is based on those involved bargaining by manipulating their asymmetrical interdependencies across the multiple channels. There are not necessarily mutual benefits: the losing party may well incur costs. Complex interdependence then has some similarities to realism\u00a0but provides<\/a>\u00a0\u201can issue-structural, rather than a power-structural, explanation of \u2026 change.\u201d Issues are purposefully used by states to drive change.<\/p>\n

There are problems with complex interdependence, but then the rules-based order is demonstrably ineffective and balancing\u2019s key mechanism\u2014making war\u2014is unappealing. Tony Abbott\u00a0notoriously said<\/a>\u00a0that Australia\u2019s relationship with China was driven by fear and greed. Greed makes us prefer the rules-based order as it doesn\u2019t threaten economic gains; our fear drives us towards balancing but war frightens everybody. We need to square the circle: to find a new more effective order to embrace and solve the conundrum of combining fear and greed in our crucial China relationship.<\/p>\n

This article first appeared in the Australian Outlook<\/a>, written by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a\u00a0fundamental problem\u00a0in Australia\u2019s relationship with China: China\u2019s growth advances prosperity but menaces security. If the rules-based order construct does not suit volatile times\u2014and balancing threatens war\u2014is there an alternative? China\u2019s rise as a major trading partner has been matched by large-scale\u00a0cyber espionage, prickly\u00a0mercantilist policies,\u00a0domestic repression\u00a0extending to include\u00a0overseas Chinese,\u00a0and, most visibly, South ChinaContinue reading “An alternative to the rules-based order?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":4176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[730,1082,591,729],"class_list":["post-4174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-australia-china-trade-agreement","tag-peter-layton","tag-regional-security","tag-rules-based-order"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nAn alternative to the rules-based order? | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a\u00a0fundamental problem\u00a0in Australia\u2019s relationship with China: China\u2019s growth advances prosperity but menaces security. 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