{"id":5112,"date":"2018-11-26T08:30:29","date_gmt":"2018-11-25T22:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=5112"},"modified":"2023-08-06T14:08:21","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T04:08:21","slug":"trampling-the-grass-china-us-leadership-competition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/trampling-the-grass-china-us-leadership-competition\/","title":{"rendered":"Trampling the grass: China-US leadership competition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|<\/p>\n<p><em>As the APEC Summit showed, China-US competition will progressively revise the international system. Middle powers and smaller states alike will be continually called upon to make choices one way or the other.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>For the Trump Administration, the\u00a0<em>zeitgeist<\/em>\u00a0is competition and the big competitor is China. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf\">US National Security Strategy<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0declares that the international system today is simply \u201can arena of continuous competition\u201d where China is contesting the US&#8217; geopolitical advantages and trying to change the international order in its favor. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf\">US National Defence Strategy<\/a>\u00a0 notes the central challenge as \u201clong-term, strategic competition\u201d where China wants to gain \u201cveto authority over other nations\u2019 economic, diplomatic, and security decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>C-words are now important. Competition is being adopted because the Trump Administration thinks the last two decades\u2019 cooperation failed. Competition does not necessarily mean conflict.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Cooperation\">Cooperation<\/a>\u00a0is where two states work together for the common good; a win-win process.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Conflict_(process)\">Conflict<\/a>\u00a0involves a serious disagreement between two states and implies a clash between opposing forces.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Competition\">Competition<\/a>\u00a0is different to both. Competition is not between two alone, but instead a contest between two states over a third party or object. A sporting analogy may help: athletes compete in an arena to win some prize. They don\u2019t fight each other directly as during conflict, but instead seek to gain an external object while denying it to another.<\/p>\n<p>The prize American seeks is clear: international leadership. The US frets about China because it is challenging contemporary American geopolitical advantages, because China wants to shift the international order away from a US-centered one to a Chinese-centred one and because if China gains a veto power over others the US will lose its veto power. It is arguably not wrong.<\/p>\n<p>China wishes, at the least, to lead the East Asian region, be respected \u2013 code for being obeyed \u2013 and be able to decide other states\u2019 policy choices. Offering advice on being obedient, Liu Qing of the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank under China\u2019s foreign ministry\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/news\/dont-pick-donald-trump-over-beijing-chinese-think-tank-warns-20181014-h16mqc\">observes<\/a>: \u201cIf Australia takes sides with the US, this would hurt the China-Australia relationship\u201d including \u201ctrade investment, tourism and personnel exchanges.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s strategy for leadership involves some positive aspects, including strategic partnerships, win-win economic proposals, important trading access and comprehensive engagement across political, economic, diplomatic, cultural and societal domains. There are also negative aspects, including\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/diplomacy-defence\/article\/2085779\/backgrounder-chinas-role-syrias-endless-civil-war\">helping authoritarian leaders like Syria\u2019s Assad<\/a>\u00a0repress their citizens, large-scale infrastructure\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2018\/10\/gwadar-emerging-port-city-or-chinese-colony\/\">projects<\/a>\u00a0that create Chinese enclaves\u00a0and loans that can potentially\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2018\/10\/gwadar-emerging-port-city-or-chinese-colony\/\">entrap and enfeeble<\/a>poorer nations. While China may intend to do good in assisting lesser states, its methods can be criticised as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/policy\/defense-national-security\/pompeo-china-the-most-predatory-economic-government-in-the-world\">predatory<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, the US strategy for leadership has pluses and minuses and, just like China\u2019s, sometimes the rhetoric and the actions are at odds. The US has a durable alliance network that makes it a global power able to act globally. It has worked with others to create large multilateral institutions that give smaller states both a say at the table and a stake in an extensive rules-based international order. The US has generally also been able to harness soft power; its failures have generally been presented as failures of good intent rather than sinister machinations. The Trump Administration, though, seems\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/world\/united-states\/isolated-trump-insults-allies-dismisses-the-world-at-un-meeting\">dismissive of its alliance network<\/a>, is actively\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/729e1bf6-b826-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe\">dismantling global multilateral institutions,<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world\/2018\/6\/10\/17445976\/trump-trudeau-g7-communique\">fights with democratic states<\/a>while\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world\/2018\/6\/10\/17445976\/trump-trudeau-g7-communique\">praising authoritarian leaders<\/a>\u00a0and unceasingly<a href=\"https:\/\/www.winnipegfreepress.com\/opinion\/analysis\/the-erosion-of-american-diplomacy-and-soft-power-490327701.htm\">\u00a0damages its soft power<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>There are some implications.<\/p>\n<p>First, Trump\u2019s America is focusing on winning at geoeconomics, suggesting conflict, not competition. The Trump Administration sees the economic relationship in zero-sum terms: an American win means China loses and vice versa. China, however, will eventually end up the world\u2019s largest economy. So the US is playing to China\u2019s strengths. \u00a0<u>To succeed the US will need other\u2019s help to tip the economic balance.<\/u><\/p>\n<p>Second, the US is talking of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/killing-chimerica\">decoupling\u00a0<\/a>from China. This process will cause considerable turbulence in the global economic and financial system. It will also combine with America\u2019s efforts to dismantle the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/international\/world\/world-trade-organization-in-trouble-amid-trump-trade-war-a-1215802.html\">global trading system<\/a>\u00a0and abandon multilateralism for big power politics. All this won\u2019t make people richer, instead we will all be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/modelling-the-trump-effect\/\">poorer,<\/a>\u00a0including the US and China. The US apparently believes this price is worth paying; the rest of us haven\u2019t been asked.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly, China and the US paradoxically will need to cooperate to sustain their competition. They will need to maintain the international system in a form that their competition can be carried on within. China and the US both see international trade as central to their prosperity, albeit they want it on their own terms. In this, there is a danger of all states embracing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aier.org\/article\/economics-autarky\">autarkic policies<\/a>\u00a0as in the 1920-30s, sharply constraining international trade. More broadly, climate change is advancing; the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/sr15\/\">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sets out timelines<\/a>\u00a0when significant political impacts will start to be felt. China-US competition will be hard to sustain if or when\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.nationalgeographic.com\/2018\/03\/climate-migrants-report-world-bank-spd\/?user.testname=none\">mass movements of people\u00a0<\/a>from the warming tropics begin.<\/p>\n<p>China-US competition will progressively revise the international system. Middle powers and smaller states alike will be objects of the two nation\u2019s strategies, continually called upon to make choices one way or the other. Such choices are unlikely to be easy or beneficial. As the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.oxfordreference.com\/view\/10.1093\/acref\/9780199539536.001.0001\/acref-9780199539536-e-650\">African proverb<\/a>\u00a0says: when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.<\/p>\n<div class=\"label author\">AUTHOR<\/div>\n<p><strong>Dr Peter Layton<\/strong> is a Visiting Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and author of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Grand-Strategy-Peter-Layton\/dp\/0648279308\">Grand Strategy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This article first appeared at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/trampling-grass-china-us-leadership-competition\/\">Australian Outlook<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| As the APEC Summit showed, China-US competition will progressively revise the international system. Middle powers and smaller states alike will be continually called upon to make choices one way or the other. For the Trump Administration, the\u00a0zeitgeist\u00a0is competition and the big competitor is China. The\u00a0US National Security Strategy\u00a0\u00a0declares that the international system today<a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/trampling-the-grass-china-us-leadership-competition\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"sr-only\">&#8220;Trampling the grass: China-US leadership competition&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":5117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[881,1082,839],"class_list":["post-5112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","tag-apec-summit","tag-peter-layton","tag-us-china-competition"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trampling the grass: China-US leadership competition | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| As the APEC Summit showed, China-US competition will progressively revise the international system. 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