{"id":5292,"date":"2019-01-04T14:00:18","date_gmt":"2019-01-04T04:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=5292"},"modified":"2023-08-07T08:21:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T22:21:02","slug":"australia-should-brace-for-a-volatile-year-in-foreign-policy-in-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/australia-should-brace-for-a-volatile-year-in-foreign-policy-in-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia should brace for a volatile year in foreign policy in 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

SUSAN HARRIS RIMMER<\/a> |<\/p>\n

By the end of 2019 we should be able to assess how Australia is travelling with the grand plan laid out in the\u00a02017 Foreign Policy White Paper<\/a>. In this, an election year, I examine the status of our most important international relationships.<\/p>\n

My verdict: decidedly shaky.<\/p>\n

A difficult 2018<\/h2>\n

Even before the August leadership spill, 2018 was a difficult year for Australia\u2019s foreign policy.<\/p>\n

New prime minister Scott Morrison visited Jakarta within days of his appointment, but\u00a0did not attend the Pacific Island Forum<\/a>\u00a0on Nauru. He also cancelled long-planned visits to Malaysia and Vietnam. He then jeopardised the Indonesian relationship with a rushed announcement about\u00a0moving Australia\u2019s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Australia was increasingly\u00a0criticised<\/a>\u00a0in various multilateral fora for its detention practices on Nauru and Manus Island, as well as its climate policies and defence of the\u00a0coal industry<\/a>. Morrison then had a\u00a0shaky summit season<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Relationship with China, Middle East<\/h2>\n

China put us in the \u201cdeep freeze<\/a>\u201d for most of the year, putting off visits between ministers, deferring a trip by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade secretary, and delaying a range of educational exchanges.<\/p>\n

The Chinese embassy issued a\u00a0safety warning<\/a>\u00a0to international students, a large market for international education. This was in response to then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull\u2019s\u00a0vow<\/a>\u00a0to crack down on foreign interference in Australian affairs, as well as our position on the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

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<\/div>
Australia\u2019s relationship with China has long been a crucial one, and was tested in 2018.<\/span>\u00a0Parker Song\/Pool\/EPA\/AAP<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In August, the federal government\u00a0banned<\/a>\u00a0Chinese-owned tech giant Huawei from taking part in the roll-out of 5G mobile infrastructure over national security concerns.<\/p>\n

This was the one relationship that may have\u00a0benefited<\/a>\u00a0in the short term from the change in prime minister.<\/p>\n

Despite these set-backs, the need to be principled and steady, and to build a long-term relationship with China, remains a challenge.<\/p>\n

The year ended badly. With the\u00a0West Jerusalem embassy announcement<\/a>\u00a0in December, Morrison proved a new diplomatic adage: that you can, in fact, please no one, all of the time.<\/p>\n

In the Pacific<\/h2>\n

Some issues are slow-burn. Most Australians still do not realise the deep implications for domestic policy raised by the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal that came\u00a0into effect<\/a>\u00a0on December 30, 2018. These\u00a0implications<\/a>\u00a0range from changes to labour market testing, intellectual property issues and the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions that allow private corporations to bypass national courts and seek compensation from extraterritorial tribunals if they believe a change in the law or policy has harmed their investments.<\/p>\n

But one bright spot was the so-called Pacific pivot, which Morrison\u00a0announced in November<\/a>, and now has to be realised.<\/p>\n

While the white paper laid out a stepping up in engagement, long overdue, with the Pacific, it was China\u2019s increasing influence in the region that led to a\u00a0sense of urgency<\/a>\u00a0and scale to the\u00a0Pacific pivot announcement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0announcement<\/a>\u00a0includes A$2 billion of new funding for infrastructure, a billion dollars to entice Australian businesses back into the region, adding five new diplomatic missions, enhancing labour mobility opportunities and creating an \u201coffice of the Pacific\u201d with whole-of-government oversight. Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the US\u00a0promised<\/a>\u00a0to connect electricity to 70% of PNG\u2019s population by 2030.<\/p>\n

These goals must be realised in a spirit of true partnership. Australian researcher\u00a0Tess Newton Cain<\/a>\u00a0points out<\/a>\u00a0that Australia often misses the right tone of respect and partnership in its announcements to the region. And without climate leadership, will the Pacific trust us?<\/p>\n

Leadership churn<\/h2>\n

No white paper can protect Australia from the damage to our international reputation over our constant turn-over of prime ministers. Based on current\u00a0polls<\/a>, another one is likely in May after a federal election.<\/p>\n

The Lowy Institute\u2019s Michael Fullilove\u00a0says<\/a>\u00a0that worse than being a laughing stock, now Australia can be ignored while the region moves on.<\/p>\n

The image of German Chancellor Angela Merkel barely concealing her boredom at meeting her fifth Australian leader in five years at the G20 Summit spoke volumes.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/div>
German Chancellor Angela Merkel checks her notes as she meets Scott Morrison at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 2018.<\/span>\u00a0Lukas Coch\/AAP Image<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Opposition leader Bill Shorten is not known for his foreign policy\u00a0vision<\/a>, but Penny Wong is a respected foreign policy\u00a0thinker<\/a>, and an interesting symbol for the region on diversity, multiculturalism and the rule of law.<\/p>\n

Will she take the foreign minister role in cabinet if the ALP is elected, assuming she may have some choice? For Australia\u2019s sake, she should; we desperate need steady interlocutors. Richard Marles is also a respected figure in the Pacific.<\/p>\n

A Shorten government should also display bipartisanship and give Marise Payne and Julie Bishop roles as special envoys or ambassadors to shore up some degree of continuity. Former PMs Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and Malcolm Turnbull could all be given roles to play.<\/p>\n

Big meetings ahead<\/h2>\n

Thailand will host ASEAN<\/a>\u00a0(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2019. The 10-member association has been\u00a0criticised<\/a>\u00a0for allowing Thailand\u2019s military government to become chair.<\/p>\n

APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) will be hosted by\u00a0Chile in 2019<\/a>, showing the reach of APEC across the Pacific. APEC was\u00a0not able to produce a leaders\u2019 declaration<\/a>\u00a0at the PNG summit and it was the scene of extraordinary tension this year. Chile will be hoping for a return to business as usual.<\/p>\n

Japan will also host an early\u00a0G20 Summit in Osaka<\/a>\u00a0in June, part of an enormous diplomatic year for them. In 2019, Japan is hosting the Rugby World Cup and preparing for the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. Then in April, Emperor Akihito,\u00a0will abdicate<\/a>, making way for his successor Crown Prince Naruhito.<\/p>\n

Threats on horizon<\/h2>\n

The Council for Foreign Relations, an independent US think-tank, nominated its\u00a0highest risks for 2019<\/a>, which I have modified for Australia:<\/p>\n