{"id":5690,"date":"2019-04-10T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2019-04-09T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=5690"},"modified":"2023-08-06T20:13:28","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T10:13:28","slug":"india-elections-who-are-narendra-modis-main-rivals-and-can-they-beat-him","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/india-elections-who-are-narendra-modis-main-rivals-and-can-they-beat-him\/","title":{"rendered":"India elections: who are Narendra Modi\u2019s main rivals \u2013 and can they beat him?"},"content":{"rendered":"

IAN HALL<\/a> |<\/p>\n

India is heading to the polls in the world\u2019s\u00a0biggest democratic election<\/a>\u00a0and a number of different figures could emerge as India\u2019s next prime minister in May.<\/p>\n

The incumbent, Narendra Modi, and his main opponent, the Congress Party president, Rahul Gandhi, are obviously the most likely candidates. But if they both fail to gain sufficient seats to form a government, they could be displaced from within their own parties. It is also possible that, in a fragmented parliament, another politician from one of the regional parties could stitch together a coalition.<\/p>\n

In 2014, the electorate delivered Modi\u2019s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the first absolute majority gained by any party since 1984. Tired of a Congress Party-led government mired in corruption scandals and rampant inflation, voters embraced Modi\u2019s promise to clean up politics, cut red tape, create jobs, and restore confidence. They also embraced Modi himself, despite his controversial past as a Hindu nationalist firebrand, responding positively to his claim that he had matured into a\u00a0selfless vikas purush<\/a>\u00a0(\u201cdevelopment man\u201d).<\/p>\n

\"\"
Current prime minister Narendra Modi.\u00a0EPA Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But the Modi government\u2019s failure to deliver what it promised has tarnished that image. Anti-corruption efforts have caused pain, with small businesses hit by the sudden decision in late 2016 to\u00a0withdraw large denomination banknotes<\/a>\u00a0from circulation. Economic growth has flagged, and jobs are scarce.<\/p>\n

Despite this, in February, a\u00a0terrorist attack in disputed Kashmir<\/a>\u00a0and a retaliatory Indian air strike on Pakistan have made\u00a0national security the salient election issue<\/a>, handing Modi another chance to reinvent himself. In response, he has assumed the mantle of a\u00a0chowkidar<\/a>(\u201cwatchman\u201d), asserting in a\u00a0slick media campaign<\/a>\u00a0that in these troubled times, he and his supporters are best suited to defend India from its enemies both inside and outside the country.<\/p>\n

The dynasty<\/h2>\n

Modi\u2019s principal opponent, Gandhi, has been caught flatfooted by this shift. The scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, related to three of India\u2019s former prime ministers, Gandhi is 20 years Modi\u2019s junior, and ought to be more in tune with India\u2019s youthful voters. But he\u00a0struggled to connect with the electorate<\/a>, including first time voters, in 2014, when his Congress Party secured just 44 out of 543 contestable parliamentary seats. Since then, he has also struggled to capitalise on the Modi government\u2019s apparent failures to boost economic growth, create jobs, and address rural poverty.<\/p>\n

In 2019, the Congress Party should nevertheless do better, if\u00a0opinion polls and seat projections are any guide<\/a>. Gandhi will be supported by his popular, if enigmatic, sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Her striking resemblance to her former prime minister grandmother, Indira Gandhi, appeals to some Congress voters, and her apparent savvy to party officials. She has not yet announced that she will stand for a seat, however, and the\u00a0allegedly murky real estate dealings<\/a>\u00a0of her husband, Robert Vadra, makes her vulnerable to BJP attacks.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Brother and sister duo, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.\u00a0EPA-EFE\/Prabhat Kumar Verma<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Gandhis have considerable assets \u2013 instant name recognition and an established, nationwide party organisation \u2013 but also significant weaknesses. Rahul Gandhi\u2019s abilities and commitment remain in doubt.<\/p>\n

The Congress campaign has been often negative, summed up in its slogan \u201cChowkidar Chor Hai<\/a>\u201d (\u201cThe watchman is a thief\u201d). And the fact that the Congress Party is still run by a dynasty \u2013 however distinguished \u2013 alienates some voters.<\/p>\n

Powerbrokers and rivals<\/h2>\n

It is unlikely that either the BJP or the Congress Party will come close to winning a majority in parliament. To rule, they will need the support of a number of regional allies, especially from the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, which account for almost half the seats. This may hand power to regional powerbrokers, such as West Bengal\u2019s mercurial chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, who will be able to direct their MPs to support one or other leader.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Potential powerbroker: Mamata Banerjee.\u00a0EPA-EFE\/Piyal Adhikary<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

These powerbrokers could deliver either main party into government, albeit it at a price, in terms of both cabinet positions and modified policies. Alternatively \u2013 in an admittedly improbable scenario \u2013 they could even come together to form a\u00a0Mahagathbandhan<\/a>\u00a0or \u201cgrand alliance\u201d, with one of their number as prime minister, should either Modi or Gandhi fail.<\/p>\n

It is also possible that the BJP could emerge as the largest party and in a position to form government, but with a disappointingly low number of seats, leading to a challenge to Modi\u2019s position. So far, he has been fortunate that some of his potential rivals within the BJP, such as external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, have been unwell or unwilling to challenge his leadership.<\/p>\n

Recently, however, the names of potential successors have been canvassed more openly, including that of roads and railway minister\u00a0Nitin Gadkari<\/a>. Should the BJP lose more than a 100 seats,\u00a0some speculate<\/a>\u00a0that an alternative leader, with a less autocratic style better suited to managing a delicate coalition, could well be sought out by the party.<\/p>\n

AUTHOR<\/div>\n

Ian Hall<\/strong>\u00a0is a Professor of International Relations and Deputy Director, Research at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/p>\n

This article first appeared at The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IAN HALL | India is heading to the polls in the world\u2019s\u00a0biggest democratic election\u00a0and a number of different figures could emerge as India\u2019s next prime minister in May. The incumbent, Narendra Modi, and his main opponent, the Congress Party president, Rahul Gandhi, are obviously the most likely candidates. But if they both fail to gainContinue reading “India elections: who are Narendra Modi\u2019s main rivals \u2013 and can they beat him?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":5700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[233,246],"tags":[1293,927,625],"class_list":["post-5690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feature-series","category-india-and-south-asia","tag-ian-hall","tag-india-election","tag-narendra-modi"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nIndia elections: who are Narendra Modi\u2019s main rivals \u2013 and can they beat him? | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"IAN HALL | India is heading to the polls in the world\u2019s\u00a0biggest democratic election\u00a0and a number of different figures could emerge as India\u2019s next prime\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/india-elections-who-are-narendra-modis-main-rivals-and-can-they-beat-him\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"India elections: who are Narendra Modi\u2019s main rivals \u2013 and can they beat him? 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