{"id":5866,"date":"2019-05-29T12:00:44","date_gmt":"2019-05-29T02:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=5866"},"modified":"2023-08-06T20:10:15","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T10:10:15","slug":"india-election-national-security-helped-watchman-narendra-modi-win-but-major-challenges-loom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/india-election-national-security-helped-watchman-narendra-modi-win-but-major-challenges-loom\/","title":{"rendered":"India election: National security helped \u2018watchman\u2019 Narendra Modi win, but major challenges loom"},"content":{"rendered":"

IAN HALL<\/a> |<\/p>\n

India\u2019s recent election campaign was overshadowed by a\u00a0suicide bombing in Kashmir<\/a>,\u00a0retaliatory air strikes<\/a>\u00a0against alleged terrorist targets a few days later, and then an\u00a0anti-satellite missile test<\/a>\u00a0just before voting began.<\/p>\n

Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, the contest focused on who was best suited to keep Indians safe: Narendra Modi, who restyled himself as a\u00a0\u201cchowkidar\u201d<\/a>\u00a0(\u201cwatchman\u201d), apparently ever alert to threats to the nation, or his main opponent, the untested Rahul Gandhi.<\/p>\n

Modi won big<\/a>, but major national security challenges remain. His government\u2019s record in managing security during his first term was mixed. Overall, it struggled to come to terms with domestic insurgencies, modernising the military, and deterring potential threats from Pakistan and China.<\/p>\n

Modi\u2019s government certainly had some successes, above all containing Maoist \u201cNaxalite\u201d violence. At its peak, in 2010, that insurgency affected nearly 40% of the country, mainly in the central and eastern states, and left more than\u00a01,000 people dead<\/a>. Since then, more intense activity by the security forces and new economic development programmes have greatly reduced the danger. In 2018,\u00a040 people died<\/a>\u00a0as result of Naxalite attacks.<\/p>\n

The government did less well, however, in Kashmir. In July 2016,\u00a0unrest flared<\/a>\u00a0after Indian security forces killed the prominent separatist Burhan Wani \u2013 and dozens died in the rioting that followed. Before and after, there was also an upsurge in terrorist attacks carried out by infiltrators from Pakistani-controlled territory.<\/p>\n

In early January 2016,\u00a0eight Indian soldiers were killed<\/a>\u00a0fending off an assault on an airbase, and in mid-September 2016,\u00a023 more died<\/a>\u00a0at another military camp.<\/p>\n

\u2018Surgical strikes\u2019<\/h2>\n

After that last attack, Modi ordered so-called \u201csurgical strikes\u201d across the Line of Control in Kashmir, and Indian special forces destroyed a number of alleged terrorist camps. The strikes \u2013\u00a0recently dramatised in blockbuster Indian movie, Uri<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 were intended, in part, to deter further attacks. But whether they did so is unclear.\u00a0Government figures<\/a>\u00a0show a rise in terrorism-related fatalities after 2014, and no obvious dip in 2017 and 2018.<\/p>\n

Beyond internal security, acquiring new hardware for India\u2019s military also tested the Modi government. The shuffling of the defence portfolio from finance minister Arun Jaitley to the mercurial Manohar Parrikar, then back to Jaitley, and then to Nirmala Sitharaman did not help. Nor did the diminishing defence budget, which shrunk to a\u00a0mere 1.5% of GDP<\/a>\u00a0by the end of Modi\u2019s first term.<\/p>\n

\"\"
India\u2019s neighbours pose ongoing problems.<\/span>\u00a0Shutterstock<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As a result, despite some changes to rules concerning procurement and foreign investment in the defence industry, modernisation proved patchy and slow. India finally commissioned its first\u00a0nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine<\/a>\u00a0under Modi, purchased new French Rafale aircraft \u2013 albeit in a\u00a0controversial deal<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 and inducted new light fighters and attack helicopters. But other much-needed projects, like the raising of a new Mountain Strike Corps tasked with defending the Sino-Indian border, were\u00a0postponed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So, too, were much needed reforms to India\u2019s national security apparatus. It floated, then put off, a decision to create the post of chief of the defence staff, which\u00a0seasoned analysts<\/a>think essential to managing inter-service rivalry. It toyed with the idea of\u00a0publishing a National Security Strategy<\/a>\u00a0and tinkered with the National Security Council, but to the\u00a0frustration of former officials<\/a>, it did not expand its capacity.<\/p>\n

Like his immediate predecessors, Modi compensated for these institutional shortcomings through diplomacy. He tried to leverage what he could from strategic partnerships with the US, Israel, Japan, and others \u2013 with some success. Arguably, Modi\u2019s greatest achievement during his first term was securing, in 2016, Washington\u2019s designation of India as a \u201cmajor defence partner\u201d. This\u00a0bespoke arrangement<\/a>\u00a0allows New Delhi to access US military technology normally available only to allies.<\/p>\n

Engagement and pushback<\/h2>\n

At the same time, to manage potential threats from Pakistan and China, Modi oscillated between engagement and pushback, with more mixed results. It remains unclear whether Islamabad will come to the table for meaningful talks any time soon, or whether militant groups operating from its territory have been deterred by India\u2019s recent strikes against them. It is also unclear whether China rates India\u2019s capacity to defend itself any more highly now than it did in 2014, before Modi came to power.<\/p>\n

Aside from these challenges, one more will have to be addressed in the months to come. During the campaign, Modi and his political allies faced\u00a0criticism<\/a>\u00a0for politicising not just national security, but also the armed forces.<\/p>\n

The prime minister\u2019s\u00a0call to voters<\/a>\u00a0to dedicate their choice to those who carried out the February air strikes was singled out, as was the Uttar Pradesh chief minister\u2019s reference to the armed forces as\u00a0\u201cModi ki Sena\u201d<\/a>\u00a0(\u201cModi\u2019s army\u201d).<\/p>\n

Repairing relations with officers unhappy with their work being used for political advantage will be a key task for Modi\u2019s next term. Building the national security institutions and modern armed forces India needs will go a long way towards achieving that objective, and fulfilling his promise to serve as the country\u2019s \u201cwatchman\u201d.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Griffith Asia Institute Deputy Director Research, Professor Ian Hall and first appeared at The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IAN HALL | India\u2019s recent election campaign was overshadowed by a\u00a0suicide bombing in Kashmir,\u00a0retaliatory air strikes\u00a0against alleged terrorist targets a few days later, and then an\u00a0anti-satellite missile test\u00a0just before voting began. Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, the contest focused on who was best suited to keep Indians safe: Narendra Modi, who restyled himself as a\u00a0\u201cchowkidar\u201d\u00a0(\u201cwatchman\u201d), apparently ever […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":5870,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[233,246],"tags":[1293,927,923,625],"class_list":["post-5866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feature-series","category-india-and-south-asia","tag-ian-hall","tag-india-election","tag-india-pakistan-crisis","tag-narendra-modi"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nIndia election: National security helped \u2018watchman\u2019 Narendra Modi win, but major challenges loom | Griffith Asia 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