{"id":6063,"date":"2019-07-04T16:00:42","date_gmt":"2019-07-04T06:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6063"},"modified":"2019-07-05T09:43:33","modified_gmt":"2019-07-04T23:43:33","slug":"regional-wrap-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-30\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"

The past fortnight would be best described as surreal and bizarre; surreal because one witnessed leaders of countries seemingly hostile to each other dining nonchalantly at the same table at the G20 summit in Japan, and bizarre because some of the outcomes at the sidelines, like President Donald Trump\u2019s perceived softening up<\/a> on Huawei, defy logic. Not to mention that the US president\u2019s daughter and son-in-law, who have no diplomatic background or training, were on his team participating in official capacity<\/a>. Or that immediately after the summit, Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, at the demilitarised zone between the two Koreas after first proposing the meeting on twitter<\/a>. Overall, this fortnight will be remembered for officially ushering in an era of what Indian journalist Shekhar Gupta calls<\/a> a \u2018T20\u2019 style of diplomacy.<\/p>\n

The biggest takeaway from the G20 summit was the apparent thaw in US-China trade relations, which have been under the shadow of a fierce trade war for the past 18 months. Both countries announced<\/a> a temporary freeze on additional tariffs and more importantly, Trump agreed to allow US companies to trade with Huawei again. Also, China will buy \u2018large amounts\u2019 of American agricultural produce (ostensibly in return for US concessions). Analysts conclude that Beijing was the clear winner at the meeting having extracted much larger bargains. More worrying, from an international security perspective, is Trump\u2019s cavalier attitude to the risks posed by Huawei and the message his prevarications send to other countries which have been under pressure from the US for months now, to disallow the Chinese telco from bidding in their 5G rollouts.<\/p>\n

As a sidenote, a few Asian countries are benefiting<\/a> from the protracted US-China trade wars, as Americans are choosing goods imported from Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh and South Korea instead of Chinese products now.<\/p>\n

Trump also ratcheted the tenor of his \u2018trade tantrums\u2019<\/a> vis-\u00e0-vis India, admonishing New Delhi over its retaliatory tariffs in a tweet before the summit. His meeting with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi along the sidelines was, nonetheless, pleasant and key bilateral issues such as India\u2019s purchase of Russian S-400 air missile defence systems, relations with Iran, trade disputes, and India\u2019s 5G plans were discussed. The Modi-Trump meeting came on the heels of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo\u2019s visit to India<\/a> earlier this fortnight. The US\u2019s top diplomat was much more conciliatory in his tone on the trade frictions and other differences with India, emphasising that \u2018great friends are bound to have disagreements\u2026\u2019 Not surprisingly, the US president mostly undid Pompeo\u2019s good work. Experts now worry if Trump\u2019s fixations on trade and transactional attitude to foreign policy might derail the US-India relationship, which has come a long way since the end of the Cold War. On a related note, the US Senate has passed<\/a> a bill to give India a similar status as its NATO allies, formally operationalising the 2016 decision to make New Delhi a \u2018major defense partner\u2019.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s meeting with Kim Jong un, on the other hand, was noted as an attempt to \u2018reset\u2019 the relationship, which had been in cold storage since the failed Hanoi summit in late February this year. At the meeting, Trump reportedly expressed a willingness to lift some of the US sanctions on Pyongyang. It\u2019s unclear what North Korea has promised in return although the New York Times<\/em> believes that the US might be inclined<\/a> to accept a \u2018nuclear freeze\u2019, implicitly accepting the status quo of the country\u2019s nuclear reality. However, this is categorically refuted<\/a> by the US administration. Analysts say that the president is keen to cut a deal with North Korea to boost his credentials in the run up to the presidential race for next year\u2019s elections. Nonetheless, Trump\u2019s overtures to Kim send a clear message to other rogue regimes that having a nuclear capability could offer them the chance of being treated well by the United States.<\/p>\n

Moving away from Trump, Australian prime minister Scott Morrison delivered his first new government\u2019s major foreign speech<\/a> at an Asialink event in Sydney last week, right before the G20. Morrison implored<\/a> the US and China to acknowledge and address the \u2018collateral damage\u2019 being caused to other nations due to their trade wars. \u2018It is no one\u2019s interest in the Indo-Pacific to see an inevitably more competitive US-China relationship become adversarial in character\u2019, he remarked.<\/p>\n

And while Xi Jinping was meeting other world leaders at the G20 last weekend, China tested<\/a> several anti-ship ballistic missiles in the South China Sea in a not-so-subtle indication of its muscular foreign policy. The Pentagon condemned the incident as violating China\u2019s professed claims of seeking peace in the region.<\/p>\n

Speaking of China, Hong Kong witnessed<\/a> another wave of protests this week against celebrations of Britain\u2019s handover of the city to mainland PRC. A few protesters also stormed into and occupied Hong Kong\u2019s legislative offices to express dissent against the proposed extradition bill that has still not been fully suspended. The police unleashed a brutal crackdown on the protesters. China called<\/a> the protesters \u2018extreme radicals\u2019 and has asked<\/a> the UK not to interfere in its internal matters after British foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt voiced support for the protesters.<\/p>\n

ASEAN adopted an \u2018Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific\u2019 at a leaders\u2019 summit in Bangkok this fortnight, an initiative led by Indonesia. It espouses the following goals<\/a>: \u2018the integration of the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions; the promotion of dialogue and cooperation instead of rivalry; the advancement of development and prosperity of all; and the importance of the maritime domain in the regional architecture.\u2019 The outlook also lays down areas of future collaboration to further those goals, namely, maritime cooperation, connectivity, sustainable development and economic ties.<\/p>\n

Speaking of economic ties, negotiations<\/a> for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership took place in Australia last week among representatives from ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, India and Australia. A few weeks ago, tired of the protracted talks, China proposed<\/a> an RCEP minus Australia, New Zealand and India. Now, Malaysian prime minister Dr Mahathir Bin Mohamad has expressed support<\/a> for leaving India out, to ensure that RCEP goes ahead quickly. They aim to conclude<\/a> the deal by the East Asia Summit in October or November this year.<\/p>\n

Significance for Australia <\/strong><\/h3>\n

As Caitlin Byrne notes, Scott Morrison performed \u2018remarkably well\u2019 at the G20 summit this year. One of his important victories included getting<\/a> an agreement from other world leaders to apply pressure on social media giants like Facebook and Twitter to curb the spread of extremist and terrorist content on their platforms. As has been reported, this was a significant achievement on Morrison\u2019s part as US officials were cautious about the implications for freedom of speech.<\/p>\n

Analysts also highlight<\/a> that Morrison has laid down the markers of a distinctly Australian foreign policy, placing the country firmly as a champion of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. The prime minister\u2019s success at the G20 summit reflect the wisdom of his \u2018\u2026stereotypically Australian shrimp-on-the-barbie conservatism\u2026\u2019 says Rory Medcalf.<\/p>\n

That Australia is positioning itself as a \u2018mediator\u2019 between the US and China on their trade wars at the same as ploughing ahead with the RCEP negotiations sans the US, is reflective of some shrewd policy tactics. Canberra appears to be keen to have all the ASEAN+6 nations, including India, on board with the plan. Any arrangement that excludes India would<\/a> see Australia and New Zealand out of RCEP as well in the form of collateral damage, as the remaining countries do not want any exclusionary moves appearing to single India out. Australia has major stakes in preventing such a situation and would be looking to work closely with New Delhi on this.<\/p>\n

Finally, Australia would be pleased with ASEAN\u2019s adoption of its own Indo-Pacific outlook, which represents the broader acceptance of the Indo-Pacific concept by Southeast Asia. As Prashanth Parameswaran notes, the release of the US Indo-Pacific strategy last month and the concept\u2019s embrace by countries like India and Japan has led to the galvanisation of ASEAN\u2019s own efforts to assert their centrality within this new geopolitical space. Despite some hesitation<\/a> on the part of countries like Singapore, the adoption of this document marks the first step towards Southeast Asian nations aligning themselves to the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region built on norms of transparency, openness and freedom.<\/p>\n

AUTHOR<\/div>\n

Aakriti Bachhawat<\/strong>\u00a0is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The past fortnight would be best described as surreal and bizarre; surreal because one witnessed leaders of countries seemingly hostile to each other dining nonchalantly at the same table at the G20 summit in Japan, and bizarre because some of the outcomes at the sidelines, like President Donald Trump\u2019s perceived softening up on Huawei, defyContinue reading “Regional wrap”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":4032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[233,245,246,247],"tags":[716,976,720,577],"class_list":["post-6063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feature-series","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-india-and-south-asia","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","tag-aakriti-bachhawat","tag-dmz","tag-donald-trump","tag-kim-jong-un"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nRegional wrap | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The past fortnight would be best described as surreal and bizarre; 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