{"id":6519,"date":"2019-11-07T15:00:24","date_gmt":"2019-11-07T05:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6519"},"modified":"2019-11-07T07:57:13","modified_gmt":"2019-11-06T21:57:13","slug":"regional-wrap-38","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-38\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s summit season again in the\nIndo-Pacific with the 35<sup>th<\/sup> ASEAN Summit and Related Summits\n(including the all-important East Asia Summit) taking <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asean2019.go.th\/en\/meeting\/35th-asean-summit-and-related-summits\/\">centrestage<\/a>\nthis fortnight. This week leaders and officials from the ten ASEAN and eight\npartner nations, including the US, China, Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand,\nRussia and South Korea are in Bangkok. The most important outcome from these\nmeetings is the successful conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic\nPartnership (RCEP), after 7 years of negotiations, albeit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/news\/national\/india-decides-against-joining-rcep-trade-deal\/article29880220.ece\">without\nIndia\u2019s participation<\/a>. (The US wasn\u2019t part of the RCEP negotiations.) The\nmove is extremely significant and beneficial to the region, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/policy\/economy\/asia-has-taken-a-stand-against-economic-nationalism-20191106-p537t9\">especially<\/a>\nin an era of populism and economic nationalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, as a few analysts point\nout, we\u2019re now looking at the two major trading and investment blocs in the Indo-Pacific,\nthe RCEP and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), without the inclusion of the\nUS and India. Evan Feigenbaum succinctly <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EvanFeigenbaum\/status\/1191350354245488643?s=20\">summarises<\/a>\nthe dilemma, \u2018So we get pan-Asian rules\/standards without the \u201cIndo\u201d and\nwithout the giant economy across the \u201cPacific.\u201d Can you have \u201cIndo-Pacific\u201d\nwhen you have neither?\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>India\u2019s decision to walk away from\nRCEP was motivated by concerns around Chinese goods flooding Indian markets and\nperceptions of an unequal free trade agreement designed to disadvantage New\nDelhi. The main issues of <a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/india\/by-walking-out-of-rcep-has-india-dealt-itself-out-of-asia\/articleshow\/71911659.cms?utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=TOIMobile\">contention<\/a>,\nfrom an Indian perspective, were \u2018inadequate protection against import surges,\ninsufficient differential with China, possible circumvention of rules of origin\nand keeping the base year as 2014\u2026\u2019, along with no proper guarantees on market\naccess and lowered tariff barriers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, India has <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/TbTObtJsX0?amp=1\">held out<\/a> the possibility of joining in\nthe future if its demands are met. For that to happen, the Modi government\nneeds to introduce a plethora of domestic reforms to boost the competitiveness\nof Indian industries, especially the manufacturing industry, as Alyssa Ayres <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DZcwwi1zBX?amp=1\">points<\/a> out. A silver lining for\nAustralia is the belief that New Delhi may now concentrate on pushing ahead with\nbilateral free trade agreements, including with Canberra and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gUYzgO94dN?amp=1\">Washington<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking of trade, it\u2019s being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/4f6580dc-ff53-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47\">reported<\/a>\nthat the US is willing to make some concessions in its trade war with China. Washington\nis planning to drop tariffs on Chinese goods worth $112 billion. Given the\ncancellation of the Asia Pacific Economic Community (APEC) Summit scheduled for\nNovember, plans for the \u2018phase one\u2019 agreement between Trump and Xi being\nconcluded at the summit, have been derailed. In response to US\u2019s overtures, Beijing\nhas put up a <a href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Economy\/Trade-war\/Emboldened-China-refuses-to-flinch-on-tariffs-in-US-trade-talks\">tough\nstance<\/a>, stressing that the former would need to drop all levies as a\nprecondition for China to agree to \u2018phase one\u2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Going back to the East Asia Summit\nfor a moment, President Donald Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-asia\/u-s-set-to-disappoint-asia-with-downgraded-delegation-for-bangkok-summits-idUSKBN1X9023\">absence<\/a>\nfrom the summit and the relatively junior rank of his representatives, Commerce\nSecretary Wilbur Ross&nbsp; and Assistant\nSecretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific David Stilwell, sent a poor\nsignal of the US commitment to the region. The US State Department\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0QByiPm0Pw?amp=1\">release<\/a> of its Report on the\nImplementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy this week lost its significance due\nto the perceived snubbing of the Southeast Asian leaders by Trump in Bangkok. ASEAN\nleaders <a href=\"https:\/\/www.japantimes.co.jp\/news\/2019\/11\/04\/asia-pacific\/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific\/us-blasts-asean-partial-boycott\/#.XcI9UjMzaUl\">responded<\/a>\nby sending a low-level representation to the US-ASEAN summit with US National\nSecurity Advisor Robert Brien in Bangkok. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Australian Prime\nMinister Scott Morrison met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on the sidelines of the\nEAS this week, in what\u2019s being seen as an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/nation\/politics\/pms-formal-talks-a-bid-to-ease-china-tensions\/news-story\/3c64d2d0a98562807303215b2422bad6\">attempt<\/a>\nled by China to \u2018reset\u2019 ties with Australia after a few tense months. The\nChinese foreign ministry published a statement noting that Sino-Australian\nrelations were devoid of any \u2018historical feud or fundamental conflict\u2019. Just\nlast week, Beijing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2019\/oct\/31\/china-hits-back-at-australias-foreign-minister-for-highlighting-human-rights-abuses\">lashed<\/a>\nout at Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne for her remarks criticising\nChina\u2019s record on human rights.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Closer to home, Victorian Premier\nDaniel Andrews visited China earlier this fortnight and signed a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/national\/andrews-signs-new-belt-and-road-deal-with-china-the-right-thing-to-do-20191023-p533kf.html\">fresh\ndeal<\/a> to further cooperation in areas of infrastructure, innovation, ageing\nand trade under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Andrews has also urged\nother Australian state governments and the Commonwealth to consider signing up\nto the BRI, remarking, \u2018We need a strong partnership, Victoria has one, and we\nwould hope that every state and territory and indeed the Commonwealth would\nhave a strong partnership and a friendship with China.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moving across to another part of\nthe Indo-Pacific, France and India have <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/defence\/french-president-announces-3-pronged-security-partnership-with-india-for-southern-indian-ocean\/articleshow\/71770145.cms\">deepened<\/a>\ntheir bilateral ties by announcing a \u20183-pronged security partnership\u2019 in the\nsouthern Indian Ocean. The two nations will work together on joint maritime\nsurveillance in the region and an Indian navy patrol boat will possibly deploy\nto Reunion Island next year. Paris and New Delhi are also looking to explore\ncollaborative economic and development opportunities in the Vanilla Islands\nwhich include Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On that note, Indian Prime Minister\nNarendra Modi <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/politics-and-nation\/pm-modi-proposes-indo-pacific-oceans-initiative\/articleshow\/71915838.cms\">put\nforward<\/a> a proposal for an \u2018Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative\u2019 at the East Asia\nSummit, to foster partnerships with like-minded countries to improve maritime\nsecurity, use of marine resources and disaster prevention and management in the\nIndian and Pacific Oceans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In more India-related news, last\nweek reports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2019\/11\/04\/an-indian-nuclear-power-plant-suffered-cyberattack-heres-what-you-need-know\/\">emerged<\/a>\nthat India\u2019s civil nuclear facility in Kudankulam was the target of a North\nKorean cyber-attack in September this year. While the attack didn\u2019t cause any\ndamage to the plant\u2019s nuclear reactors or any critical systems, it revealed\ncrucial weaknesses in India\u2019s cyber defences, as Debak Das notes. And in more\ndamning news from India, New Delhi and much of northern India has been facing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2019-11-04\/indias-capital-new-dehli-reaches-unbearable-levels-of-pollution\/11668054\">unprecedented<\/a>\nlevels of air pollution, which is likely to trigger a major health crisis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Significance for Australia<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Scott Morrison has had a fruitful\ntime in Bangkok; he\u2019d be more than pleased with the sealing of RCEP this year,\neven without India. As Peter Drysdale and Adam Triggs <a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/policy\/economy\/asia-has-taken-a-stand-against-economic-nationalism-20191106-p537t9\">put\nit<\/a>, \u2018RCEP is vital for Australia. RCEP delivers a direct boost for demand,\na kickstart to GDP, more productivity growth and cheaper goods and services for\nstretched household budgets\u2026More importantly, it shows the critical role\nAustralia can play in helping the region towards beneficial, cooperative\noutcomes.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Drysdale and Triggs are hopeful of\nIndia finally coming round whereas Jeffrey Wilson sees the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/india-s-rcep-exit-setback-not-disaster\">\u2018silver\nlining\u2019<\/a> in India temporarily stepping aside to let the party begin. Wilson\nalso reminds us that the initial suggestions of Australia and New Zealand being\nexcluded as a result of India\u2019s exit haven\u2019t come to fruition, which is cause\nfor significant cheer Down Under. Nonetheless, Canberra would be keen to\nconclude a bilateral free trade agreement with New Delhi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Morrison\u2019s meeting with Li was also\nproductive from Canberra\u2019s perspective even though, as I noted in the last\niteration of this <a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-37\/\">wrap<\/a>, the\nstructural problems that are beginning to emerge in Sino-Australian relations,\nare unlikely to be resolved through meetings alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The BRI is one such thorn. Canberra\nwould be anxious about China\u2019s outreach to state governments and the\nCommonwealth\u2019s inability to prevent the states from signing onto deals it\ndoesn\u2019t like. As Anthony Bergin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/commentary\/victoria-takes-wrong-track-with-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative\/news-story\/085e50aa36f943a4c1672ac39cefbaa2\">describes<\/a>\nit, \u2018The Chinese are weaponising federalism by driving a political wedge\nbetween the federal and state positions on the Belt and Road Initiative\u2019. I\u2019m\nnot sure that\u2019s the reset Canberra\u2019s looking for. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"label author\"><strong> AUTHOR <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Aakriti Bachhawat<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n<p><!--EndFragment--><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s summit season again in the Indo-Pacific with the 35th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits (including the all-important East Asia Summit) taking centrestage this fortnight. This week leaders and officials from the ten ASEAN and eight partner nations, including the US, China, Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia and South Korea are in Bangkok. The<a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-38\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"sr-only\">&#8220;Regional wrap&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":4032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[508,245,246,247,248],"tags":[716,689],"class_list":["post-6519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-india-and-south-asia","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","category-png-and-the-pacific","tag-aakriti-bachhawat","tag-regional-wrap"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - 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