{"id":6810,"date":"2020-01-16T16:00:55","date_gmt":"2020-01-16T06:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6810"},"modified":"2020-01-15T18:10:28","modified_gmt":"2020-01-15T08:10:28","slug":"regional-wrap-41","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-41\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The year 2020 has begun on a sobering note for\nAustralia (and the world). While the world came close to facing the possibility\nof an outbreak of war between Iran and the US last week, Australia continues to\ngrapple through one of the most devastating climate events in its history. Climate\nchange-induced bush fires have\nravaged<\/a> close to 17 million hectares of land across the\nisland-continent this season, claiming 24 human and millions of animal lives.\nThe Scott Morrison-led federal government\u2019s response to the crisis has been shaky\nand delayed, with the prime minister facing severe backlash over his poor\nleadership and absence of an effective climate change policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The significant drop in his approval ratings have\nforced Scott Morrison to address climate change as the reason behind the\nbushfires; this week the government promised<\/a> a\nroyal commission on the bushfires and resolved to reduce carbon emissions to\n2030. While the royal commission\u2019s findings will only be released after a few\nyears, it\u2019s expected that initial recommendations will be made available later\nthis year. Australian cities and towns, meanwhile, have been choking under\nhazardous levels of smoke for over a month now, leading experts to warn of an\nimpending health crisis due to the smoke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prime Minister Morrison has had to postpone his\nscheduled visits to New Delhi and Tokyo this month due to the unprecedented\nnature of the calamity. International support has been pouring in from all\nover, with many countries, including the US, New Zealand and Canada dispatching\nfire-fighters<\/a> to Australia. The Australian Defence Force has\nbeen heavily involved<\/a>\nin firefighting and will also be deployed to assist with recovery and\nrebuilding efforts, if asked to, by state governments. Around 3,000 army reservists<\/a>\nhave also been called up to help with the response. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In further depressing news, Jakarta faced<\/a>\nlarge scale floods and landslides that resulted in the death of 67 people and\ncaused several hundred thousands to seek shelter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taiwan re-elected incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen\nwith a landslide majority this week, putting paid to Beijing\u2019s hopes of\nreconciliation with what it refers to as its \u2018renegade province\u2019, according<\/a>\nto some external observers at least. Tsai, representing the status quo- leaning\nDemocratic Progressive Party (DPP) won 57.1 percent of the vote share,\ndefeating her Kuomintang (KMT) rival Han Kuo-yu, who secured 38.6 percent\nvotes. In the legislative elections taking place the same day, although the DPP\nwon more seats (61 compared to the KMT\u2019s 38), the KMT managed to win a\nsignificant number of votes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts note that this election was in a way a\nreferendum on unification with China. Tsai was seen as a \u2018steady hand\u2019 on China\nwhereas her opponent Han was more pro-Beijing. As Charlie Lyons Jones puts<\/a>\nit, \u2018Saturday\u2019s election wasn\u2019t so much a resounding victory for the DPP and\ndefeat for the KMT as it was an endorsement of Tsai Ing-wen and a rebuke of Han\nKuo-yu.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many world\nleaders<\/a>, including US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and\nShadow Australian foreign minister Penny Wong congratulated Tsai on her\nvictory. China on the other hand, dismissed<\/a>\nthe election results and slammed countries that offered congratulatory messages\nto Taiwan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another part of the Indo-Pacific, tensions between\nIndonesia and China over the Natuna islands resurfaced again this fortnight.\nJakarta lodged a diplomatic protest against violations of its Exclusive\nEconomic Zone (EEZ) around the Natuna islands by three Chinese Coast Guard and\nroughly 63 fishing boats last month. Indonesia\u2019s foreign ministry emphasised<\/a>\nthat it didn\u2019t recognise Beijing\u2019s Nine-Dash Line and its illegal claims in the\nNorth Natuna Sea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to China\u2019s provocations, Jakarta deployed<\/a>\nfighter jets and warships to patrol the disputed waters. Jakarta also authorised<\/a>\nits fishermen to join the effort to defend against Chinese ships, in what\u2019s\nbeing seen as the greatest altercation between the two sides in years.\nIndonesian President Joko Widodo visited the islands last week and asserted,\n\u2018Natuna is part of Indonesia\u2019s territory, there is no question, no doubt\u2026There\nis no bargaining for our sovereignty.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, the Chinese foreign ministry\u2019s response<\/a>\nwas that the Chinese fishermen were within their rights to fish in their\n\u2018traditional\u2019 waters, which overlap with Indonesia\u2019s EEZ. Pointedly, the\nChinese ministry spokesman asserted, \u2018So whether the Indonesian side accepts it\nor not, nothing will change the objective fact that China has rights and\ninterests over the relevant waters.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time of writing, the Chinese fishing vessels\nare being reported<\/a>\nto have retreated to the border of Indonesia\u2019s EEZ in the North Natuna Sea and\ntensions said to be cooling.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s passing of the controversial citizenship\namendment act last month and a perceived government crackdown on student\nprotests (on several issues) has vitiated the political atmosphere in New Delhi\nand across India. Moreover, globally, India\u2019s recent domestic moves are causing\nconcern<\/a> leading countries to renew their assessments New\nDelhi\u2019s commitment to the liberal values. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Indian government organised<\/a> a\ntrip for foreign diplomats, including from the US, to Jammu and Kashmir, which\ncontinues to be under a communications lockdown. The move failed to generate\nsome positive press for New Delhi, and instead has renewed calls for the end to\ncommunications blackout and release of political and other detainees in\ngovernment custody for months now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significance for Australia<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While domestically the new year has so far not been to\nkind to Australia, strategically, the results have been mixed. Taiwan\u2019s\nchoosing of pro-status quo candidate Tsai Ing-Wen in the face of tremendous\npressure from China and amid elaborate Chinese Communist Party-led influence\nand disinformation campaigns, is a good sign. Events of the recent past\nincluding, most importantly, Beijing\u2019s clamp down on Hong Kong last year, have\nhad a telling impact on the Taiwanese election as Xi Jinping\u2019s pitch to Taiwan\nhas been to replicate the \u2018one country, two systems\u2019 Hong Kong model. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Lyons Jones notes<\/a>,\nshort of war, China has all but lost Taiwan. The upholding of democratic values\nand traditions is a positive development for Australia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others caution<\/a>\nthat the results will toughen Xi Jinping\u2019s resolve to explore other options to\nunify Taiwan with the mainland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s recent adventurism in the Natuna Sea add<\/a>\nto Australia\u2019s worries about Beijing\u2019s intentions and modus operandi. Analysts\nnote that the pattern is clear: like the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia,\nChina is pushing its claims southwards, this time at the expense of Indonesia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Indonesian government is being called\nupon<\/a> to develop a new strategy to deal with an assertive\nChina, including suggestions for the creation of a special office to look into\nstrategic matters aimed at \u2018changing\u2019 China\u2019s behaviour in the Natuna waters,\nbolstering coordination with Malaysia and Vietnam on maritime issues and\nincreasing engagement with like-minded countries such as Australia, Japan,\nIndia and South Korea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While such a proposition would be welcome from an\nAustralian perspective, there remain doubts about Jakarta\u2019s appetite and\nwillingness for risk-taking vis-\u00e0-vis China. Already, there are concerns<\/a> that\nthe Jokowi government is downplaying the most recent standoff. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most importantly, the past fortnight has invoked<\/a>\ncalls for Canberra to exercise global leadership on climate change. Australia\nneeds to see the 2019-20 bushfire crisis as a wake-up call and take solid\nmeasures to reduce our dependence on non-renewable sources of energy, phasing\ncoal out of our energy sources and moving towards a zero-carbon economy by\n2050. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On that note, it\u2019s disconcerting to read<\/a>\nthat the Australian government is refusing to make public draft versions of its\nstrategy report for aiding the Pacific island\u2019s adapt to climate change,\nleading to fears that the government weakened the final document. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any event, one would hope that Australia learns\nfrom this crisis and focuses on building a more resilient and better equipped\nnation to fight climate change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aakriti Bachhawat<\/strong> is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The year 2020 has begun on a sobering note for Australia (and the world). While the world came close to facing the possibility of an outbreak of war between Iran and the US last week, Australia continues to grapple through one of the most devastating climate events in its history. Climate change-induced bush fires haveContinue reading “Regional wrap”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":4032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[233,1029],"tags":[716,1042,1043,689],"class_list":["post-6810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feature-series","category-regional-wrap","tag-aakriti-bachhawat","tag-bushfires","tag-iran-us-conflict","tag-regional-wrap"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nRegional wrap | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The year 2020 has begun on a sobering note for Australia (and the world). 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