{"id":6826,"date":"2020-01-21T08:30:06","date_gmt":"2020-01-20T22:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6826"},"modified":"2023-08-08T09:33:04","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T23:33:04","slug":"revisiting-indias-growth-slowdown-how-bad-is-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/revisiting-indias-growth-slowdown-how-bad-is-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Revisiting India\u2019s growth slowdown: How bad is it?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

YAN ISLAM<\/a> | <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abhijit Banerjee, who, along with Esther Duflo (his partner) and Michael Kremer, won the latest Nobel prize in economics, has warned that the Indian economy is \u2018extremely close to a tipping point of a major recession\u2019.<\/a> He joins a growing list of eminent \u2018expat\u2019 Indian economists in raising the alarm about India\u2019s poor short-run growth prospects. Thus, Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and now at Chicago University, proclaims the persistence of a \u2018growth recession\u2019 and expresses considerable concern that \u2018there are signs of a deep malaise in the Indian economy<\/a>\u2019. Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser to the Indian government and now at Harvard University, paints a poignant picture of a \u2018great Indian slowdown\u2019<\/a>. He builds his case on previous contributions that the current GDP<\/a> numbers paint a much more rosy picture and thus hide more than they reveal. \u00a0Kaushik Basu, another former Chief Economic Advisor to the Indian government and now at Cornell University, notes that \u2018all major indicators show that the economy is slowing down sharply\u2019.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This represents a striking contrast to the recent past. For example, Basu notes that \u2018between 2003 and 2011 growth averaged nearly 8.5 per cent<\/a>\u2019. All major international agencies ((ADB, IMF and World Bank) have downgraded their growth forecasts to 5-6 per cent for 2019 \u2013 see Table 1<\/em>. India\u2019s central bank (RBI) now concurs concluding that the best that can be expected is a growth rate of 5 per cent<\/a> for 2019-2020. This is a rather sombre prognosis relative to the RBI\u2019s reasonably optimistic October 2018 monetary policy report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 1: India’s economic growth 2019-2020<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agency <\/td> Growth estimate for 2019 (%) <\/td> Growth forecast for 2020 (%) <\/td><\/tr>
ADB <\/td>\n 5.1\n <\/td>\n 6.5\n <\/td><\/tr>
IMF <\/td>\n 6.1\n <\/td>\n 7.0\n <\/td><\/tr>
World Bank <\/td>\n 5.0\n <\/td>\n 5.8\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>Asian Development Bank<\/em><\/a>;<\/em> International Monetary Fund<\/em><\/a>; and <\/em>World Bank<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critics might argue that proclamations of an imminent \u2018major recession\u2019 in India are exaggerated, especially when seen from the perspective of long run growth. Figure 1<\/em> shows real GDP growth rates for India for a period of 57 years (1961-2018). The years of major recessions stand out (1965, 1972, 1979), while in 1991 the economy came perilously close to a recession. Compared with such calamitous episodes, growth forecasts of 5-6 per cent appear rather benign. Indeed, India\u2019s long run growth rate, estimated from the vantage point of the 1960s, is just above 5 percent. Hence, one could argue that the 8 percent growth rate that one witnessed in the recent past was probably an outlier. Even if it grows at 6 percent in the medium-term, India would still be placed among the fastest growing economies in the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: India, long run real  GDP growth (%), 1961-2018<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>World Bank.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While\nhistorical comparisons might provide succour and support to the government, it\nwould still be wise to pay heed to the collective pessimism of Banerjee et al<\/em>. To start with, one cannot reject\nArvind Subramanian\u2019s argument that, as a result of contentious methodological\nrevisions, the current GDP numbers significantly overstate the underlying\nstrength of the economy. Key components of aggregate demand \u2013 consumption,\ninvestment and net exports \u2013 have faltered badly making them seemingly\nincompatible with high aggregate growth rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\nmatters most is that labour market and poverty indicators reveal an economy in\ndistress.<\/a> Official figures suggest that the unemployment rate\nis at a 45-year high. Other indicators, such as the decline in the labour force\nparticipation rate, suggest a poorly functioning labour market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A veteran\neconomist, S. Subramanian<\/a>, has compiled what is perhaps the most disturbing aspect\nof the current state of the Indian economy \u2013 a decline in the living standards\nof rural residents juxtaposed with a conspicuous rise in rural poverty between\n2011-12 and 2017-2018 \u2013 see Table 2.<\/em>\nIronically, these numbers are based on a draft report prepared by the National\nStatistical Office (NSO) that the current government has decided will not be\nofficially published \u2018apparently on grounds\nof the questionable quality of the data\u2019.<\/a> This has\nunderstandably raised suspicions of an attempt by the government to ignore bad\nnews.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 2: Real consumption and poverty in rural India, 2011-12 to 2017-2018<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indicator <\/td> 2011-12 <\/td> 2017-2018 <\/td> Nature of change <\/td><\/tr>
Mean consumption (Indian Rupees:INR) <\/td>\n 1429.96\n <\/td>\n 1304.07\n <\/td>\n Declined\n by 8.8%\n <\/td><\/tr>
Poverty (based on official poverty line) <\/td>\n 31.5%\n <\/td>\n 35.10%\n <\/td>\n Increased\n by 12.68%\n <\/td><\/tr>
At-risk-of poverty (20% increase in poverty line) <\/td>\n 42.29%\n <\/td>\n 52.31%\n <\/td>\n Increased\n by 23.69%\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Adapted from  <\/em>https:\/\/www.theindiaforum.in\/authors\/s-subramanian<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the latest World Economic Outlook<\/a>, the IMF makes the following observations on the Indian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

India<\/em>\u2019s growth is estimated at 4.8 percent in 2019, projected to improve to 5.8 percent in 2020 and 6.5 percent in 2021 (1.2 and 0.9 percentage point lower than in the October WEO), supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as subdued oil prices.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Those who worry about the nature of the current growth slowdown in India have a lot of culprits to aim at. They worry about the long-lived consequences of what are now considered to be serious policy mistakes \u2013 such as the November 2016 demonetisation exercise and the poor execution of a badly designed GST. They note that the domestic financial system is broke impairing the flow of credit to the private sector as well as adversely affecting the efficacy of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They despair at the fact that the government has run out of the capacity to fight the growth slowdown because monetary policy is insufficiently effective while there is little room for large-scale fiscal stimulus. More importantly, they worry that the current government is pursuing a contentious majoritarian political agenda that has instilled a \u2018climate of fear\u2019 that is \u2018causing low levels of investment and lending\u2019.<\/a> Only time will tell whether the government is prepared to listen to its critics or indeed whether the critics are being unduly pessimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iyanatul Islam<\/strong> is an Adjunct Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute and former Branch Chief, ILO, Geneva. The views expressed in this blog are the author\u2019s own and should not be attributed to the ILO.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

YAN ISLAM | Abhijit Banerjee, who, along with Esther Duflo (his partner) and Michael Kremer, won the latest Nobel prize in economics, has warned that the Indian economy is \u2018extremely close to a tipping point of a major recession\u2019. He joins a growing list of eminent \u2018expat\u2019 Indian economists in raising the alarm about India\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":6828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[233,246],"tags":[512,905,1320],"class_list":["post-6826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feature-series","category-india-and-south-asia","tag-india","tag-india-economy","tag-yan-islam"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nRevisiting India\u2019s growth slowdown: How bad is it? | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"YAN ISLAM | Abhijit Banerjee, who, along with Esther Duflo (his partner) and Michael Kremer, won the latest Nobel prize in economics, has warned that the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/revisiting-indias-growth-slowdown-how-bad-is-it\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Revisiting India\u2019s growth slowdown: How bad is it? 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