{"id":6862,"date":"2020-01-30T15:30:06","date_gmt":"2020-01-30T05:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6862"},"modified":"2020-02-06T06:56:12","modified_gmt":"2020-02-05T20:56:12","slug":"regional-wrap-42","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-42\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The year 2020 seems to be on a relentlessly challenging\ncourse- while Australia continues to grapple with the bushfire crisis, the\nIndo-Pacific region now has an even bigger tragedy unfolding in the form of the\ndeadly coronavirus\nepidemic<\/a>, which has claimed more than a hundred lives in China and is\nthreatening many, many more. The SARS-like respiratory illness which originated\nin Wuhan, a city in southwestern China with a population of 11 million, is extremely\ncontagious and spreading at an alarming pace; so far, Beijing has enforced a shutdown<\/a>\nover 16 cities, effectively quarantining its residents. The disease has now\nbeen confirmed to have spread to other countries, including Australia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, just like the 2003 SARS outbreak, the Chinese\nCommunist Party\u2019s response<\/a>\nto the disease has been less than satisfactory. Moreover, recent reports reveal\nthat local government officials were slow to react to the crisis and initially\nkept information about the outbreak under wraps. The high levels of secrecy and\ncensorship have created ripe grounds for disinformation<\/a>\ncampaigns with several conspiracy theories circulating on social media. The\ncoincidence of this disease with the Chinese New Year made the situation worse\nas there\u2019s a lot of international travel at this time of year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus\nhas reportedly expressed confidence in Beijing\u2019s ability to tackle the crisis. At\nthe time of writing, it\u2019s being reported that China will allow a team of\nforeign experts to enter the country in order to help find a solution. Meanwhile,\nmany countries have issued travel advisories urging citizens to avoid travelling\nto anywhere in China. Many nations are also planning to evacuate their citizens\nand diplomatic personnel from the epicentre of the outbreak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving on, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited<\/a>\nMyanmar this fortnight, the first by a Chinese leader in 19 years, in what\nanalysts see as a major strategic development. The two countries have signed\nmultiple deals to accelerate existing infrastructure projects, including the\nall-important China Myanmar Economic Corridor, but no new projects were agreed\nupon. Most importantly, the two sides agreed<\/a>\nto speed up the construction of a deep-sea port at Kyaukpyu in the Bay of\nBengal, which would give China a critical gateway to the Indian Ocean, allowing\nit to bypass the South China Sea and the Malacca Straits. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts say that Nay Pyi Taw is being particularly cautious\nabout the Belt and Road Initiative, ahead of the upcoming election. Chinese\nprojects in the Southeast Asian country have witnessed several pushbacks, particularly\nthose caught in the crosshairs of the conflict between the army and the ethnic\nrebels in many areas. Moreover, officials are worried<\/a>\nabout the prospect of being sucked into expensive debt traps created by the\nBRI. Nonetheless, Xi proclaimed the heralding of a \u2018new era\u2019 of China-Myanmar\nrelations during the visit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critics argue<\/a>\nthat the recent warming of relations between Beijing and Nay Pyi Taw are a\ndirect result of the West\u2019s pursuit of human rights justice for the persecuted\nRohingya community of Myanmar, who have been driven out of their lands after a\ngenocide. China has been largely supportive of Myanmar through this crisis and\nhas been courting it for a long time, as a lynchpin of Xi\u2019s Belt and Road\nambitions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sticking to the theme of China and great power politics,\nthis fortnight witnessed the culmination of the first round<\/a> of US-China trade wars\nafter the two sides signed a preliminary deal. The agreement will ease up the\ntensions to an extent, with Beijing promising to increase US imports by $200\nbillion above 2017 levels and agreeing to make intellectual property rules more\nstringent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While US President Donald Trump is celebrating this as his\nvictory, China also says it\u2019s a win-win deal. Nonetheless, there\u2019s realisation\nthat this is just the beginning and that it will require several phases of\nnegotiation to normalise trade relations between the two giants completely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, critics are concerned about the conceptual design\nof the agreement which is likely to result<\/a>\nin \u2018unrealistic expectations and unfulfilled commitments.\u2019 Furthermore, there\nare worries about the impact of this bilateral pact on the future of\nmultilateral negotiations and the status of the World Trade Organization as the\narbiter of such disputes. By doing so, critics argue<\/a>\nthat \u2018this deal undermines the interests of the broader global community in\nfavor of the arbitrary whims of great powers.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Trump, who\u2019s currently battling impeachment\nproceedings<\/a> against him in the US Senate, this deal with China couldn\u2019t\nhave come at a better time. Trump was impeached by the US House of\nRepresentatives in December 2019 over misuse of his office to solicit foreign\ninfluence to ramp up his chances in this year\u2019s presidential election. Trump is\naccused of coercing the Ukrainian government to investigate his electoral rival\nJoe Biden and his son Hunter, in return for American aid. While his actions are\nclearly illegal and said to have been confirmed by former US National Security\nAdvisor John Bolton in his upcoming\nbook<\/a>, it\u2019s unclear<\/a>\nand more or less unlikely that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have enough\nnumbers to get the impeachment bill passed in the Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another part of the Indo-Pacific, the Indian government,\nwhich has been facing unprecedented backlash over a new discriminatory\ncitizenship law and toiling with a deep economic crisis, finally has some good\nnews. This week, the government signed<\/a>\na peace accord with the tribal Bodo insurgent groups in the country\u2019s\nnortheast, which had been demanding separation and autonomy for decades and had\ncarried out terror acts in the past. The accord accedes to several demands made\nby the Bodos, including creation of autonomously governed areas under their\ncontrol and recognition of their language. In return, the Bodos dropped their\ndemand for separation, ending decades of violent struggle against the Union of\nIndia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significance for Australia<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The coronavirus epidemic potentially presents a significant\nchallenge to Australia, already reeling under the bushfire emergency response\ndemands. With regard to the bushfires, Prime Minister Scott Morrison outlined\nseveral important measures<\/a>\nin his speech at the National Press Club yesterday- including augmenting the\npowers of the government \u2018to allow prime ministers to declare national\ndisasters and call in the Defence Force rather than waiting for the states to\nask for assistance\u2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The role of the Australian Defence Force in emergency\nresponse has come under renewed scrutiny during this season\u2019s bushfires,\nparticularly as prominent analysts have called for further institutionalisation\nof the ADF\u2019s contributions in fighting climate emergencies. This has spurred a\nnational debate as others argue against formalising or extending the ADF\u2019s role\nas a first responder and prioritising the ADF as the defender of Australia\u2019s\nsovereign interests against \u2018external\u2019 forces. The Morrison government called\nin 3000 army reservists to help with the bushfire response this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morrison also signalled a shift in the Coalition\u2019s policy on\nclimate change and indicated that the Commonwealth will play a more active role\nin preparing for and dealing with climate emergency responses, keeping the\ncountry\u2019s fiscal position in mind, of course.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coming back to China, the coronavirus episode underscores\nthe dangers of living under an authoritarian regime that controls and censors\ninformation for the sake of maintaining \u2018stability\u2019. As Minxin Pei notes<\/a>,\n\u2018To maintain its authority, the Chinese Communist Party must keep the public\nconvinced that everything is going according to plan. That means carrying out\nsystematic cover-ups of scandals and deficiencies that may reflect poorly on\nthe CCP\u2019s leadership, instead of doing what is necessary to respond.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What could\u2019ve been contained and controlled in the initial\nstages of the first cases of the disease in early December has spiralled into a\nregional and potentially global health crisis because of the CCP\u2019s reluctance\nto make information public. This episode further embeds distrust in China\u2019s\nrole as a global actor and makes working with China all the more difficult. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, China\u2019s consolidation of infrastructure projects in\nMyanmar will be viewed with concern Down Under, for Beijing\u2019s propensity for\ncreating debt traps for poor nations and also because of increasing Chinese\naccess and influence in the Indian Ocean Region. It\u2019s in Australia\u2019s interest\nto work closely with like-minded partners, particularly India, to deal with any\nChinese adventurism in the IOR. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aakriti Bachhawat<\/strong> is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The year 2020 seems to be on a relentlessly challenging course- while Australia continues to grapple with the bushfire crisis, the Indo-Pacific region now has an even bigger tragedy unfolding in the form of the deadly coronavirus epidemic, which has claimed more than a hundred lives in China and is threatening many, many more. TheContinue reading “Regional wrap”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":4032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245,246,247,248,1029],"tags":[716,689],"class_list":["post-6862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-india-and-south-asia","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","category-png-and-the-pacific","category-regional-wrap","tag-aakriti-bachhawat","tag-regional-wrap"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nRegional wrap | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The year 2020 seems to be on a relentlessly challenging course- while Australia continues to grapple with the 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