{"id":6929,"date":"2020-02-27T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-27T02:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6929"},"modified":"2020-03-10T16:15:03","modified_gmt":"2020-03-10T06:15:03","slug":"regional-wrap-44","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-44\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Change is the only constant in life they say\u2014this holds even more true for politics. The past fortnight witnessed yet another demonstration of how dynamic the Indo-Pacific region is. While US President Donald Trump\u2019s first state visit<\/a> to India dominated the headlines, communal riots in New Delhi formed an important subtext, and cast a gloomy shadow on India\u2019s secular and liberal credentials at a time when it\u2019s being hailed as an exemplar of liberal values juxtaposed against an authoritarian China. Meanwhile, dramatic political developments in Malaysia threaten to plunge the country into chaos once again. All this while COVID-19 (the erstwhile coronavirus) continues to spread at a rapid pace, having claimed more than 2500 lives to date.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Donald Trump visited India this week in what was\nseen as a largely successful visit albeit more rhetorically than substantively.\nThe US and India signed important defence<\/a>\ndeals to the tune of US $3 billion and involving the sale of 24 MH-60 R Seahawk\nMulti-Role Helicopters and 6 AH-64E attack helicopters to India. Both countries\nalso came close to finalising another military pact called the Basic and\nCooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation (BECA), which will allow the\nUS to share sensitive and advanced satellite and topographical data with India,\nmarking another step towards closer military engagement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, tellingly, the two sides failed to agree upon a\nmuch talked-about trade deal. President Trump has still expressed optimism<\/a> about\nsigning a \u2018comprehensive trade deal\u2019 with New Delhi in the near future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, Trump\u2019s visit was characterised by signs of his\ngrowing camaraderie with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and his speech to\nthe 125,000 strong crowd at the Motera stadium in Ahmedabad was cleverly\ndirected to please the hosts. It was also meant to appeal to the strong and\ninfluential Indian diaspora in the US, as Trump\u2019s bid for re-election gains\nmomentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, Trump made an unsubtle distinction between\nIndia and China, without naming the latter, when he stated<\/a>,\n\u2018There is all the difference in the world between a nation that seeks power\nthrough coercion, intimidation, aggression, and a nation that rises by setting\nits people free and unleashing them to chase their dreams\u2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, underneath the show and the theatrics, lies the\nundeniable fact that US-India relations have never been better. Dhruva\nJaishankar sums it up well when he writes<\/a>,\n\u2018The India-US relationship has proved resilient amid the immense changes\nunderway in international politics. The greatest significance of Donald Trump\u2019s\nvisit as president is the indication that this broad trajectory is likely to\ncontinue, even under circumstances that would once have been considered highly\nunlikely.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Troublingly, this fortnight has been marred<\/a> by a vicious communal riot\nbetween Hindus and Muslims in north-eastern Delhi, in which 24 people are\nreported to have died so far. Violent clashes between supporters and opposers\nof the Indian government\u2019s recently passed Citizenship Amendment Act, spiralled\ninto full-scale riots this week as religious mobs went on rampage attacking\npeople and property with impunity. Several journalists reported that the police\ndid nothing to curtail the violence in many areas. Also, Trump has been criticised<\/a>\nfor keeping quiet about the riots taking place in the city while he was there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham is also visiting Delhi this week, along with a major delegation of Australian businessmen and women. Before departing for India, Senator Birmingham expressed<\/a> his government\u2019s wish \u2018\u2026to make sure Australian businesses are front and centre as India\u2019s economy grows over the next 20 years.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birmingham is scheduled to meet his Indian counterpart Indian\nCommerce Minister Piyush Goyal to reinvigorate talks of a free trade agreement\nafter India walked out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.\nAlthough there\u2019s speculation<\/a>\nthat New Delhi is more amenable on concluding an FTA with Canberra this time\naround, past as well as recent experience suggests otherwise. This Indian\ngovernment has been more protectionist than probably any other government in\nNew Delhi\u2019s post Cold War history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In further India-related news, a Chinese ship carrying potential\ndual-use equipment and headed to Pakistan, was detained<\/a>\nat a port in Gujarat earlier this fortnight after it mis-declared an autoclave\nas a \u2018dryer\u2019. Autoclaves can also be used to build missiles. The ship was\ndetained following a high-level tip-off received by Indian intelligence\nagencies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other news, China is delaying<\/a>\ngranting permission to an Indian Air Force flight carrying medical supplies to\nHubei province, and on a mission to rescue more than 100 Indian nationals from\nthe COVID-19 epicentre. As Tanvi Madan notes<\/a>,\nit\u2019s mere speculation at this stage, but there could be a link between the\ndetainment of the Chinese ship and Beijing\u2019s stubbornness on this account as\nsignalling retaliation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another part of the Indo-Pacific, a political drama has\nbegun unfolding. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad announced his\nresignation, claiming that the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition (of which his\nparty was a part) had lost its majority in the parliament. A power\nstruggle<\/a> is now ensuing between Mahathir, who\u2019s acting as a caretaker prime\nminister and the \u2018perpetual\u2019 prime minister-in-waiting, Anwar Ibrahim (who was\nto succeed him later this year). The erstwhile coalition has declared Anwar as\nits leader; it\u2019s reported that the Malaysian king will determine which party\nhas the majority and the results are yet to be declared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

James Chin predicts<\/a> that ultimately, Mahathir will likely emerge victorious but the overall outcome will be tragic for the country- it\u2019ll just be a reaffirmation that \u2018regime change last year did not fundamentally alter the trajectory of Malaysian politics\u2019, and that there has just been a change of power \u2018from the Najib dynasty to the Mahathir dynasty\u2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Closer to home, the Australian government announced its\nplans to expand the Royal Australian Air Force\u2019s base Tindal, around 300 km\naway from Darwin, which commentators see<\/a>\nas \u2018a giant strategic step forward\u2019 and which will enable Australia to \u2018deliver\na firmer deterrent posture and a closer alliance with the US.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Current Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Director-General\nMike Burgess delivered<\/a>\nhis annual threat assessment speech in Canberra this week. Notably, he\nmentioned that the level of foreign interference activities within Australia is\nat its peak now. Without disclosing the name of any country, Burgess revealed\nthat ASIO had discovered a foreign \u2018sleeper-agent\u2019 in Australia, who had been\nfound guilty of espionage. He also mentioned that right-wing terrorism is\nquickly gaining ground Down Under, with Neo-Nazism emerging as one of the key\nthreats facing Australians today. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picking up from Burgess\u2019s remarks, Sen Rex Patrick accused\nChina of perpetrating insidious foreign interference activities against Australia.\nOn that note, China\u2019s deputy head of mission to Australia, Wang Xining appeared<\/a>\non Australian TV show Q and A this week and attacked Australia\u2019s \u2018xenophobia\u2019\nvis-\u00e0-vis China. He asserted that China did not censor information and there\nwas \u2018no cover-up\u2019 where the coronavirus outbreak was concerned. He also\ndefended Beijing\u2019s internment of Uighurs in Xinjiang, insisting those were\n\u2018training\u2019 and not concentration camps. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significance to Australia<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The past fortnight has given Australian policymakers plenty to deal with, with the ASIO chief\u2019s warnings being the topmost priority. The prospect of right-wing terrorists operating and posing a threat to Australians is one that\u2019s going to keep many in Canberra awake. Moreover, the discovery of the foreign sleeper cell and the extent of the unnamed foreign regime\u2019s reach into Australian society is also deeply worrisome and is likely to test our resilience as a nation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade Minister Birmingham\u2019s visit to India could not have\ncome at a more unfortunate time- riots in Delhi are the last thing Australian\nbusinesses need to witness as they assess India\u2019s potential as an economic\npartner. India\u2019s descent into shades of illiberalism is one that\u2019s going to put\na shadow over any future engagement and will dampen Australia\u2019s newly found\nkeenness on consolidating ties with New Delhi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that the US wasn\u2019t able to secure an FTA with\nIndia, after over a year of negotiations, is also likely to depress Canberra.\nAs Aman Thakker notes<\/a>,\na free and open Indo-Pacific can not be realised without a free and open India.\nAnd for that to happen, New Delhi will need to \u2018build a free, open, and\ninclusive India\u2019 at home first. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If members of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party keep stoking\ncommunal tensions and voicing anti-Muslim sentiments, Australia will need to\nreassess its strategy of engagement with India, as unfortunate as that is.\nAlthough realism dictates that nations act in self-interest, engaging with a\ndivisive and inward looking Indian government will cease to be within\nAustralia\u2019s interests if India\u2019s current political and economic trends continue.\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aakriti Bachhawat<\/strong>\u00a0is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Change is the only constant in life they say\u2014this holds even more true for politics. The past fortnight witnessed yet another demonstration of how dynamic the Indo-Pacific region is. While US President Donald Trump\u2019s first state visit to India dominated the headlines, communal riots in New Delhi formed an important subtext, and cast a gloomyContinue reading “Regional wrap”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":4032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245,246,247,1029],"tags":[716,1069,706,689],"class_list":["post-6929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-india-and-south-asia","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","category-regional-wrap","tag-aakriti-bachhawat","tag-india-riots","tag-president-donald-trump","tag-regional-wrap"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"\nRegional wrap | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Change is the only constant in life they say\u2014this holds even more true for politics. 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