{"id":6967,"date":"2020-03-09T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-08T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6967"},"modified":"2020-03-12T13:34:23","modified_gmt":"2020-03-12T03:34:23","slug":"the-us-china-trade-war-implications-of-the-phase-one-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-us-china-trade-war-implications-of-the-phase-one-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"The US-China trade war: Implications of the phase one deal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The trade \u2018war\u2019 between the US and China has been continuing since July 2018. Trade tensions between the two super-economies has had a substantial impact on global trade and growth. The negative impact on trade extends beyond the shrinkage of bilateral trade because globally China is the hub of the manufacturing supply chain network. The reduction in its domestic production for export, for example, would decrease its imports from input suppliers from the East Asian economies and the rest of the world.

Up until February 2020, Korea, Germany and Japan seemed to have had the largest negative impact while Vietnamese exports to US increased. The trade war also led to a decrease in the growth rate given the withered domestic consumption and corporate investments following the GFC in 2007-2009. This justifies why the resolution of the trade war is particularly important to raise\/maintain the current economic growth rate for most countries.

The phase one deal<\/a> signed in January 2020 is positive as it assured no further deterioration of the trade war in the immediate future. However, the problem is that the conflict has yet to be resolved as President Donald Trump publicly announced. Therefore, we need to examine carefully the phase one deal and its implications. This agreement provides important information about the origins of the trade dispute, allowing us to draw some implications for government policy and multinational\u2019s global strategy.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 18-month-long war between the two super-economies has resulted in escalated import tariffs and business uncertainties. The trade war broke out when US began to levy 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth (818 items) of imports from China in July 2018, followed by China\u2019s levy of retaliative tariffs on US products, which in turn invited the levy of US tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China and so on. The agreed deal indicates that there are both political and economic reasons behind the trade dispute.

The sustained US trade deficit could be one of the reasons, according to President Trump. The size of US trade deficit in 2019 was $616.8 billion and 56% of this ($345.6 billion) was from trade with China. However, the trade deficit itself should not be blamed unless the composition of imports is dominated by luxury consumer goods. Indeed, most of the US\u2019 imports from China are desirable goods such as computers, mobile phones and clothing\/footwear.

President Trump\u2019s emphasis on the trade deficit problem is misleading\u2014rather it conveys his intention to justify his actions to decrease trade deficits for political gain and potential re-election in November 2020. This political agenda is confirmed by the deal highlighting China\u2019s agreement to purchase $200 billion worth of US goods, including agricultural products, over the next two years. In response, the US cut the tariff levy from 15% to 7.5% on $120 billion worth of imports and cancelled the tariffs on $160 billion worth of imports from 15 December 2019.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this deal, China also promised a\nstrengthened protection of intellectual property right and abolition of demand\nfor technology transfer from the US multinationals. The emergence of China as\nthe G2 and President Xi Jinping\u2019s ambitious plan of the China 2020 to modernise\nand level-up the Chinese economy and technology has also been regarded as a\nthreat to US hegemony in high-tech industries, such as the 5G technology. Without\neffective protection of intellectual property rights, US multinationals are\nreported to be pressured by the Chinese government to transfer their high-tech\nto local companies as a pre-requisite to run their businesses in China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China also agreed to open financial\nmarkets including share markets and promised no government intervention to devaluate\nthe Yuan. Compared to other agreements, implementation of Yuan exchange rate\npolicy is somewhat complex and could be controversial. In contrast to the manufacturing\nsector, the global competitiveness of China\u2019s financial market has yet to be\ndeveloped. The opening of its share market could encourage foreign investor\u2019s\nportfolio investments. The decreased return on investment, in combination with relocation\nof multinational firms from China to ASEAN and India, along with the trade war,\nwould facilitate the replacement of foreign direct investments with portfolio\ninvestments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, the value of the Chinese\ncurrency, would be more vulnerable to shocks in the global market. Due partly\nto the sustained business uncertainty in the global market, a high demand for the\nUS dollar has been maintained. This capital injection in combination with the\nsustained domestic consumption has contributed to US economic growth, despite\npoor performance of all other developed countries. This puts upward pressure on\nthe appreciation of Yuan, which is effectively pegged to the stronger US dollar,\nhowever the deal prohibits government intervention to devalue the Yuan which is\ndifferent from other emerging economies\u2019 currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is detrimental to the growth of the\nChinese economy\u2014particularly when both domestic consumption and investments are\nshrinking\u2014whilst most other emerging nations competitively depreciate their own\ncurrencies (i.e. global currency war). The dwindling of consumption and\ncorporate investments has also been worsened by the eruption of Covid- 19 in\nearly 2020. The Covid-19 is expected to impact negatively on the real economy\nthrough fallen financial markets leading to a decrease in household consumption\n(i.e. wealth effect), keeping consumers at home (i.e. consumer confidence) and\ndisruption of supply chain networks. In order to restore his authority and growth,\nPresident Xi will have a strong desire to depreciate the Yuan to prevent its\nGDP growth rate from dropping below a critical level, perhaps 6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though not included in this phase one\ndeal, the issue of a level playing field has often been addressed by US representatives\nduring the last 12 rounds of negotiations. In particular, the Chinese\ngovernment\u2019s subsidies for state-owned enterprises (SOE) remains an issue to be\nresolved. This is a challenging issue because China considers it as related to\nnational sovereignty and internal legal system while US regards it as an issue\nof fair competition and a norm to be accepted by all participants in the global\nmarket. The portion of SOE is around 65% of all the Chinese firms, which are approximately\n70-80% of listed firms in the Shanghai share market, are SOE and these are\nstrong supporters of President Xi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The debt problem of SOE has been deteriorating\nsince 2014 and existing debts have amounted to 135 trillion Yuan ($18.9\ntrillion). These listed SOE have increased leverage using the issued shares as\ncollateral to invest in property and other sectors. Currently, more than 8% of\ntotal revenue (24 trillion Yuan, equivalent to $3.4 trillion) of the SOE are\nused to service the interest component of the debts. SOE account for half of new credit but have recorded added value\nthat is less than half that of the private sector. The high leverage and\nlow profitability of SOE has eroded capital adequacy ratio of most local banks\nthat provided the debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The growth in lending by banks to\nshadow banking entities is another potential problem to deteriorate the ratio. These shadow banking entities, such as\nnon-bank financial institutions, wealth management products, mutual funds and\ntrusts had assets of about 123 trillion Yuan ($17.22 trillion) in 2016,\naccording to Nomura. Most local governments have also played a Ponzi\ngame referring to the continuous issuance of new bonds to pay back the existing\ndebts and interest payments. Fiscal soundness of most local governments except Shanghai\nis also worrisome. The estimated\ndebts of local government ranged between 16 and 42 trillion Yuan ($2.24-5.88\ntrillion), depending on different sources such as the China\u2019s Ministry of\nFinance and IMF. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China may adopt expansionary monetary\nand fiscal policies to overcome the expected recession caused by the trade war\nand the spread of coronavirus. The expected low economic growth combined with\nlow profitability of SOE and deficits of local governments will increase\npressure for Chinese governments to continue the subsidies, contradictory to\nthe US expectation. \n\nPresident\nTrump wishes the remaining issues of opening internet markets, intellectual\nproperty rights in high-tech and subsidies to SOE to be completely resolved in\nthe upcoming phase two deal so that he would not need to consider any further\ndeals. Contrary to this expectation the phase two negotiation could be a\nbeginning of many more deals as it will seriously tackle the hegemony in new\ntechnology and the level playing field, which is closely related to the Chinese\nnational legal system, political regime and, to some extent, social value. \n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Byung-Seong Min<\/strong> is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Business Strategy and Innovation and member of the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The trade \u2018war\u2019 between the US and China has been continuing since July 2018. Trade tensions between the two super-economies has had a substantial impact on global trade and growth. The negative impact on trade extends beyond the shrinkage of bilateral trade because globally China is the hub of the manufacturing supply chain network. TheContinue reading “The US-China trade war: Implications of the phase one deal”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":6968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245,1055],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-economies-and-development"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nThe US-China trade war: Implications of the phase one deal | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The trade \u2018war\u2019 between the US and China has been continuing since July 2018. 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