{"id":6982,"date":"2020-03-19T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-18T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6982"},"modified":"2023-08-06T13:47:41","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T03:47:41","slug":"australias-new-regional-context-pacific-island-futures-and-air-power-possibilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/australias-new-regional-context-pacific-island-futures-and-air-power-possibilities\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s new regional context: Pacific island futures and air power possibilities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Australian strategic consciousness the Pacific islands looms very large. There is more than two hundred years of history that includes seminal moments like the capture of German New Guinea in 1914, fighting the Imperial Japanese Forces in World War Two, decolonization and up past the 2003 Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands to recent Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief operations. This historical legacy shapes Australian thinking but there is a new Pacific Island future steadily unfolding that is different in many respects to the celebrated past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three significant issues are disrupting\ncontemporary Australian strategic thinking about the islands.&nbsp; The first is the entry of China as a new\ngreat power into the region. This has raised concerns in geographically distant\nWashington where American strategic thinking is actively considering new\ndirections and defence postures. The Chinese challenge and the US response is\nthough only the most obvious geopolitical change. Over the last decade, many\nother large and middle powers have unexpectedly become more interested in the\nPacific Islands including Japan, the UK, Spain, Chile, India, South Korea and Russia.&nbsp; Geopolitics is now intruding into the\nislands.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second issue is very different but again\narises externally.&nbsp; Global warming and\nits implications are of grave concern across most Pacific Island communities\nwith some seeing it as an existential threat. The Pacific Island nations\nthemselves contribute a minuscule amount to global warming but they are\nnoticeably impacted by it. The external states did not set out to weaponise\ngreenhouse-gas emissions. Instead, they were merely striving for ever-larger\nnational power. Global warming is just a by-product. Some Pacific Islands may\nbecome simply collateral damage in others\u2019 quests for greatness, with China and\nthe US the largest emitters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third issue is dissimilar in being\ninternally driven. The Pacific Islands have reconceptionalised themselves.\nRather than considering each other as small, widely separated island states\nadrift in a vast open ocean expanse they now see themselves as being large\nocean nations. International legal developments, including the United Nations\nConvention on the Law of the Sea, have given many Pacific island countries very\nlarge exclusive economic zones. While their land area combined may only be\nabout that of Spain, the Pacific Islands\u2019 combined marine areas encompass some\n30 million sq kms of ocean, approximately 28% of the world\u2019s exclusive economic\nzones (EEZs).&nbsp; The Pacific Islands as a\ngroup have become an EEZ superpower, and these particular EEZs are resource\nrich. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A changed perspective amongst islanders has\nreinforced this notion of an imagined oceanic community. The Pacific Ocean is\nnow \u201cnot what separates us but rather what joins us together as one ocean\ncontinent.\u201d&nbsp; This is a somewhat startling\nvision of a large \u201cBlue Pacific Continent\u201d located in the mid-Pacific Ocean. Of\nequal consequence strategically, this feeling of an oceanic community is\ndeveloping in parallel with an ever-growing sense of agency. If in the past,\nexternal powers dominated regional developments, now the future is one the\nislanders themselves seek to actively help create. They consider that if they\nact collectively, they can shape their tomorrows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The three factors \u2013 the China challenge, global\nwarming and a determined Pacific Island agency \u2013 create for Australia a new,\nchallenging regional context. The world immediately beyond Australia\u2019s eastern\nshores has changed and as importantly will change further. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper\u2019s first half discusses the Pacific\nIsland\u2019s challenges and responses. This examination endeavours to stay at the\nstrategic level by principally considering the various strategies the major\nparticipants are employing. The first chapter looks at the principal external\nchallenges in Pacific Islands: geostrategic competition (Chinese and US\nstrategies) and climate change. The second and third discusses the Pacific\nIslands\u2019 and Australia\u2019s strategies in response. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having set the scene, the paper\u2019s second half\nmoves beyond the present, with the fourth chapter looking to 2040 to develop\nfour, rather broad Pacific Island alternative futures. The future is always\nuncertain but in general terms lies within definable boundaries. The past and\npresent shapes the future; it does not arise in some temporally independent\nmanner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fifth and sixth chapters then use these\nfutures to devise a range of possible strategic options in terms of both\npotential air power approaches and possible force structure changes. In this\nthe paper focuses on national air power: the ability of a nation to achieve its\nobjectives through the air domain and encompassing elements of civilian and\nmilitary aviation.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper takes in a broad intellectual sweep. Air power has traditionally been conceived mainly in terms of warfighting and in particular applying mainly to major interstate conflict. This is not the world of the Pacific Islands. Instead of state security, the 2018 Boe Agreement signed by Australia and other Pacific Island Forum &nbsp;members placed human security at centre stage. Accordingly, the paper does not assume a future world at war in some rerun of World War Two although some future worlds considerably more fragmented and divided than today are considered. Air power is not usually discussed in terms of human security. However, in the Pacific Island case reality intrudes and perhaps surprisingly air power has much to offer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"author label\">AUTHOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dr Peter Layton<\/strong> is a  Visiting Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Please click here to read the full paper \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/airpower.airforce.gov.au\/APDC\/media\/PDF-Files\/Contemporary%20AirPower\/AP45_Australias-New-Regional-Context.pdf\">Australia\u2019s new regional context: Pacific island futures and air power possibilities<\/a>\u201d published by the Air Power Development Centre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| In the Australian strategic consciousness the Pacific islands looms very large. There is more than two hundred years of history that includes seminal moments like the capture of German New Guinea in 1914, fighting the Imperial Japanese Forces in World War Two, decolonization and up past the 2003 Regional Assistance Mission to the<a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/australias-new-regional-context-pacific-island-futures-and-air-power-possibilities\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"sr-only\">&#8220;Australia\u2019s new regional context: Pacific island futures and air power possibilities&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":6978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1758,1021,248,1057],"tags":[640,969,1050,1082],"class_list":["post-6982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-environment","category-pacific-outlook","category-png-and-the-pacific","category-security","tag-other-peoples-air-power","tag-pacific-islands","tag-pacific-outlook","tag-peter-layton"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Australia\u2019s new regional context: Pacific island futures and air power possibilities | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| In the Australian strategic consciousness the Pacific islands looms very large. 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