{"id":6989,"date":"2020-03-12T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=6989"},"modified":"2020-03-12T06:06:27","modified_gmt":"2020-03-11T20:06:27","slug":"regional-wrap-45","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/regional-wrap-45\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The coronavirus crisis, or what might be more aptly\ndescribed as the coronavirus pandemic<\/a>,\nhas become the most definitive phenomenon this year whose second and third\norder effects are likely to be felt across the global economy for years to come.\nThe biggest story this fortnight is the major economic downturn caused by\nfalling oil prices in the global markets, triggered by the slowing down of the air\ntravel and tourism industries globally. Australia has announced a ban on\ntravellers from Iran and Italy (to be effected from later this week) and is\ncontinuing to ban all travel from China (except for Australian citizens and\npermanent residents). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The simultaneous hit taken by global demand and supply, has according\nto experts, \u2018undermined the momentum of global economic growth.\u2019 In fact, 9th<\/sup>\nMarch 2020 is now called Black Monday because of the drastic stock market\ncrashes in all major economies, including the US and Australia. There are now distinct\nmurmurs of a global recession setting in akin to the 2008 global financial\ncrisis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID-19 has now reached the transmission phase in Australia\nwhich means that its spread doesn\u2019t require contact with foreign travellers-\nit\u2019s homegrown. So far, Australia has registered<\/a>\n112 confirmed COVID-19 cases and three deaths. The Australian government has announced<\/a>\na package worth $2.4 billion to tackle the epidemic and is also reportedly going\nto introduce a broader economic stimulus package to offset the losses faced by\nbig and small businesses and especially the vulnerable sections of the society.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving on, Malaysia witnessed<\/a>\na fascinating end to the tumultuous political drama which had begun unfolding over\nthe past fortnight after then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suddenly resigned\nfrom power. Earlier this fortnight, the Malaysian king swore in Muhyiddin\nYassin as the country\u2019s new prime minister after it was revealed that it was he\nwho held the majority support in parliament rather than political heavyweights\nMahathir and Anwar Ibrahim (Mahathir\u2019s originally designated successor). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mahathir and Anwar now<\/a>\nfind themselves in the Opposition but the former is still hopeful of coming\nback to power once a confidence motion is held in the next parliament session\nin May. However, it\u2019s an open question as to whether Mahathir or Anwar will be\nin the lead if the current government does fall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions have been brewing<\/a>\nbetween China and Taiwan again in recent times. Earlier this fortnight, a\nChinese H-6 bomber again flew over the Taiwan strait, making it the second time\nin a month. On 10th<\/sup> February too, the Chinese bomber, participating\nin military drills, had entered the Taiwanese air space. In response, Taipei\nscrambled F-16 fighter jets and a day later, two American B-52 bombers and a\ncommando aircraft flew over the area. According to Chinese state-run news\nmedia, the military exercises were meant \u2018to warn Taiwan secessionists and also\ndemonstrate the PLA\u2019s capability to solve the Taiwan question by force.\u2019 This\nwas a direct message to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, largely seen as being\nopposed to reunification with China, who was re-elected in January this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Speaking of Chinese\nmilitary incursions, it was recently reported<\/a>\nthat a sophisticated Chinese research vessel was found mapping the seas off\nAustralia\u2019s west coast and near Christmas Island in January-February this year.\nThese waters are frequently used by Australian submarines visiting the South\nChina Sea; according to officials although the boat stayed outside Australia\u2019s\nExclusive Economic Zone, it\u2019s clear that it was studying the strategic routes\nused by submarines. It\u2019s probably not a coincidence that the Chinese vessel was\ndetected in those waters at the same time as the scheduled port visit by the\nAmerican fast-track submarine USS Texas at HMAS Stirling naval base near Perth.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United Nations Human Rights Commission has\nfiled<\/a> an application in the Indian Supreme Court, challenging the Narendra\nModi government\u2019s recently passed Citizenship Amendment Act. Since its passing,\nthe country has witnessed mass protests and demonstrations which culminated\nlast fortnight in one of the worst communal riots in Delhi in recent times.\nIndia has reacted strongly to this, insisting that CAA was an internal matter\nand that the UN body has \u2018no locus standi\u2019 on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significantly, the Indonesian government, following domestic\noutrage, summoned<\/a>\nthe Indian ambassador in Jakarta to express its concerns regarding the\ntreatment of Muslims in India in light of the Delhi riots last week. Indonesia\nhas become the fourth Muslim-majority nation to condemn the human rights\nviolations of Muslims in India recently, joining Turkey, Iran and Malaysia (and\nexcluding Pakistan). However, the Indonesian government\u2019s statement, was\naccording to Shekhar Gupta, \u2018measured\u2019 and expressed \u2018complete confidence that\nthe government of India will be able to manage the situation and ensure the\nharmonious relations among its religious communities\u2026\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On another note, India has\njoined<\/a> the Indian Ocean Commission, a multi-government organisation that\nmanages maritime governance in the western Indian Ocean as an \u2018observer\u2019. The\ngrouping currently includes Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius and\nFrench Reunion. Experts say that the move will strengthen India\u2019s security ties\nto these small island nations and with France, boosting Modi\u2019s 2015 SAGAR\n(Security and Growth for All) initiative. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Closer to home, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern visited<\/a>\nAustralia earlier this fortnight and held meetings with her counterpart Scott\nMorrison. The two leaders discussed<\/a>\nglobal trade, development in the Pacific and online extremism. During her\naddress to the media in Sydney, Ardern slammed the Australian government\u2019s\ndeportation of close to 2000 New Zealand-born people with criminal records back\nto their country of birth. In a blunt message to Canberra, she implored the\nAustralian government not to deport its people and its problems to New Zealand.\nMany saw this attack as unnecessary<\/a>\npolitical grandstanding from the Kiwi Prime Minister and viewed it as a sign of\nthe relationship being under stress. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significance to Australia<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The past fortnight has given Australian policymakers a lot\nto worry about- staving off an economic recession at home being the foremost\npriority. Canberra would be deeply worried about the impact of COVID-19 on the\nChinese and global economy and the resultant disruptions in the global supply\nchains. The Chinese Communist Party\u2019s attempts to deflect criticism of its\nhandling of the crisis as well as propping up Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2018exemplary\nleadership\u2019 during the epidemic should be noted with caution by Australia as\nyet another CCP trick to whitewash history. It\u2019s in our interests to ensure\nthat China doesn\u2019t get away by absolving itself of responsibility for the\npandemic, made tenfold worse due to its efforts to hide and censor information.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increased tensions over the Taiwan strait are likely to\ncause sleepless nights Down Under. As Brendan Taylor notes<\/a>,\nAustralia has maintained an uncomfortable silence over Chinese aggressive\ndesigns vis-\u00e0-vis Taiwan for over a decade. Moreover, Australia would be caught\nbetween a rock and a hard place should a war break out between the US and China\nover Taiwan. It is thus, according to Taylor, in Canberra\u2019s strategic interests\nto \u2018advocate for more robust crisis avoidance, management and\nconfidence-building, rather than focusing on our alliance obligations or lying\nlow due to the fragile state of Sino-Australian relations.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The discovery of the Chinese research vessel close to\nAustralian waters will also be noted carefully. In January this year, India had\ndiscovered<\/a>\nand expelled a similar vessel from its EEZ near the Andaman and Nicobar\nislands. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worsening of the human rights situation of the Muslims\nin India will worry Australia significantly because as I\u2019ve written previously\nin these pages, India\u2019s democracy and secular characteristics are major\nelements of its soft power, which draw Australia close to it in the championing\nof \u2018like-minded values\u2019. Moreover, any changes in Indonesian public opinion on\nIndia matter to Canberra, which cannot afford chinks in its Indo-Pacific vision.\n<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

AUTHOR <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aakriti Bachhawat<\/strong> is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The coronavirus crisis, or what might be more aptly described as the coronavirus pandemic, has become the most definitive phenomenon this year whose second and third order effects are likely to be felt across the global economy for years to come. The biggest story this fortnight is the major economic downturn caused by falling oilContinue reading “Regional wrap”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":4032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[245,246,247,248,1029],"tags":[716,689],"class_list":["post-6989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-india-and-south-asia","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","category-png-and-the-pacific","category-regional-wrap","tag-aakriti-bachhawat","tag-regional-wrap"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"\nRegional wrap | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The coronavirus crisis, or what might be 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