{"id":7112,"date":"2020-04-08T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=7112"},"modified":"2020-05-14T15:49:49","modified_gmt":"2020-05-14T05:49:49","slug":"the-battle-begins-for-the-shape-of-the-post-covid-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-battle-begins-for-the-shape-of-the-post-covid-world\/","title":{"rendered":"The battle begins for the shape of the post-COVID world"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u201cJesus wasn\u2019t born radical\u2026 but the crisis called him to act\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>Sign outside a church in inner suburban Melbourne<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMay the rich choke on their own blood for crimes against planet\/animals\/poor\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>New fly-poster nearby<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

 \u201cRent strike now! Mortgage strike now!\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>Columnist on Crikey website<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe coronavirus crisis shows it\u2019s time to abolish the family\u201d.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>Sophie Lewis, Open Democracy <\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

An influential part of Australia was\nalready in an apocalyptic mood before COVID-19 struck the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many were attentive to Greta Thunberg, the\noracle of climate change extinction, as she envisioned \u201cOur house is on fire\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even more viewed Australia\u2019s fire-season\ncatastrophe as a harbinger of end-times for \u201clife as we know it\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, as their physical worlds are\nshrinking to fit the shape of a house or apartment, few Australians are\nconcerning themselves about much beyond their radically restricted daily lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we get through this crisis\u201d is a\nphrase being heard in some anxiety-soaked homes, as well as the more common,\n\u201cwhen we get through it\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re not unique in this. Much of the\nworld\u2019s population is in the same boat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We shall indeed emerge from peak\ncoronavirus, but it will be into a changed environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our lifestyles will be altered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Hong Kong today, diners are commonly\nprovided with two pairs of chopsticks\u2014a permanent result of precautions that\nbegan to be taken during the SARS outbreak in 2003-2004. In Australia and other\nplaces, some of the routine meetings that are now, in the world of coronavirus,\ntaking place via the Zoom app, are likely to shift online permanently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Students in Australia and other countries\nhad already largely shifted the fulcrum of their daily lives off campus and\ninto their homes, where they watch lectures remotely; this may lead to the redesignation\nof only recently constructed university buildings substantially funded by\nrevenues from international students who may themselves be less inclined now to\ntravel abroad to study. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sage pundits are suggesting strikingly\ncontrasting ways in which our world will be shaped in the grander economic, social\nand political contexts too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some anticipate a more caring, nurturing,\nplace in which we acknowledge mutual needs, and seek to strive more in concert\nto safeguard the environment we share, intensifying the campaign against\nclimate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some believe we shall endeavour to build\non our national comparative advantages more rationally than BC\u2014\u2018Before\nCoronavirus\u2019\u2014while breaking down economic barriers and rebuilding the\ninternational economy through intensifying globalisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others state that the virus will be widely\nperceived as a warning against efforts to build a borderless world, that\nnations\u2014and regions within them\u2014will seek to increase self-reliance, for\ninstance by restoring manufacturing processes previously outsourced\ninternationally, such as for health equipment, and oil refining, now viewed as\nessential components of the national equilibrium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commentators and academics are mostly punting\nthat their own predilections will be reinforced by the demands of the\ncoronavirus world, and will emerge in triumph. In general, nationalists believe\nnationalism will be intensified, globalisers ditto re-globalisation, and\nliberal economists, Marxists, supporters of more migration and less, all also\ninsist that history is now at last shifting their way, catalysed by the\nexigencies of the virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This feature cites some of the more cogent\nanalysts, from Australia and from the world at large as they start to assess\nthe shape of the PC, \u2018Post-Coronavirus\u2019, world\u2014especially in our own Indo-Pacific\nregion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cThe world before coronavirus is not returning. An economic and social shock of this scale is not a freeze-frame moment. <\/em><\/strong>“<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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The veteran Canberra journalist Michelle\nGrattan writes of \u201cmajor\nchanges in attitudes coming out of the crisis. Internationally and in\nAustralia, there is likely to be a rise in the advocacy of protectionism. We\ncan expect increased concern about our dependence on China. For the duration of\nthe crisis, applications for foreign investment in Australia are being more\nextensively scrutinised; post crisis, there is likely to be a feeling we have\nbecome too deeply dependent on China\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The former head of the Office of National Assessments,\nnow national president of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Allan\nGyngell, agrees: \u201cThe world before coronavirus is not returning. An economic\nand social shock of this scale is not a freeze-frame moment. The balance of\nglobal power, the structure of the international and national economies, the\nrole of multilateral agencies, patterns of social interaction and ways of work\nwill all be different\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some existing trends in international\nbehaviour have been strengthened by the crisis, he says. \u201cThe reassertion of\nstate sovereignty against the fading dreams of cosmopolitanism has been powerfully\nreinforced. Authoritarian leaders on both the left and right have seized\nopportunities to strengthen their control. Across democracies, the role of the\nstate has also been boosted\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The geostrategic pressures for decoupling\nbetween China and the United States will be reinforced, Gyngell says, and \u201ceverywhere,\ncalls for greater self-sufficiency will grow\u201d. Although, he says, during this\ntime \u201cthe formal processes of multilateralism, specialist parts of government\nregulatory agencies and informal research links of specialists networking with\ntheir overseas counterparts has been critical\u2026 the multilateral institutions\nmost important to Australia will be weaker\u201d in the future. \u201cThe G20 has proved\nitself entirely unable to mount an effective\nresponse<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“the G20 must be the primary convener for a truly global response given its global authority “<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Australian lawyer John Denton, now the Secretary General of the\nInternational Chamber of Commerce, and Peter Drysdale head of the East Asian\nBureau of Economic Research at the Australian National University, argue that\nglobalisation must be grasped with even greater determination post-virus. They write\nin the East Asia Forum that \u201cin our hyperconnected world, this is true for\nevery country: that all have a major stake in effective health and economic\nmeasures taken in other countries and cooperation that makes that possible\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They urge that \u201cthe G20 must be the primary\nconvener for a truly global response given its global authority\u2026 Difficult action at home is made\neasier when done with others through global cooperation\u201d, since \u201cin a global\npandemic, we need to ensure essential supplies are available where they are\nneeded most\u201d\u2014which may well involve lifting import taxes, quotas and other government-imposed\ncosts, they say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But so far, the indicators pointing towards success in achieving support for this reinforced globalisation appear to be wilting. The Asia Society in Australia says about COVID-19 that \u201cthe concept of a more unified Asia has been left wanting in the face of an unexpected crisis which actually started in the region. Deep seated historical grievances quickly soured the way the two most developed economies \u2013 Japan and South Korea \u2013 managed their bilateral travel bans. And the oldest institution \u2013 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) \u2013 has only managed to produce a bland statement restating old commitments to trade openness\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its monthly commentary, the Asia Society notes\nthat Asia\u2019s\ncollective focus on crisis preparedness since the 1998 financial meltdown has\nproduced a spate of institutions ranging from the Chiangmai Initiative to the\nEast Asia Summit, and that these western-styled, mostly geo-economic\ninstitutions may yet come to the fore in the economic recovery from the\ncoronavirus crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it says, the financial rescue packages to deal with the virus\ncrisis have diverged sharply, with Singapore and Malaysia announcing measures\nequal to more than 10 per cent of GDP. But other countries from China to\nIndonesia have only announced stimulus equal to around one percent of GDP. \u201cAt this point it is an older, more\nutilitarian sort of Asia which has emerged with the most credibility from a\ncrisis which has left the world\u2019s traditional leaders from the United States to\nthe newer Group of 20 looking flat-footed. But these seem to have been very\norganic (although drawn from the shared past SARS experience) rather than the\nresult of any modern shared pan-regionalism\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cafter decades of falling unionisation, Western economies are confining much of their workforce to their homes while enormously increasing their reliance on a vital set of workers in the care, logistics, and retail sectors\u201d. <\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The HQ of the Asia Society warns from its\nUS base: \u201cOnce the virus is tamed \u2013 if<\/em> the virus is tamed \u2013\nthere may be a rebound in production of some products for which demand is pent\nup; but for many items consumption once foregone does not return. You do not\nhave dinner twice tomorrow because you skip it today, and the same goes for\nvacations, movies, fuel to commute to work or take business trips, and many\nother activities. The crisis will greatly exacerbate nonperforming loan rates\nat virtually all commercial banks and financial insolvencies at firms\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greg Sheridan, the Foreign Editor of The\nAustralian, describes coronavirus as \u201cthe hunter-killer enemy of globalisation\u2026\nIt flew on the wings of globalisation, sailed down globalisation\u2019s every canal,\ntraversed all its highways. But it means to kill its host\u201d. He says that \u201cthe centre\nof every citizen\u2019s sense of accountability for this virus is their national government.\nNo one asks: what is the Indian Ocean Regional Association for Co-operation\ndoing about this? They ask: what is Canberra doing?\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a global pandemic and therefore national\ngovernments will need to cooperate, he adds. But each nation has taken its own\nnational measures. \u201cWhen the Morrison government first banned direct travel to\nAustralia from China, Beijing was furious. Then a lot of countries did the\nsame. The epicentre of the crisis now is Europe. COVID-19 has been badly\nmanaged in Italy and other European nations. This is partly because the bizarre\nrules of the \u00adEuropean Union limit what each nation can do. The EU is talking\nof closing its borders. But European nations cannot close their own borders\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He concludes that the richer a national government,\nand the greater the sovereignty and real control it exercises, the better its\nchances of doing something effective to delay the spread of the virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Structurally, Sheridan anticipates, the crisis\u2014often cast\nas a \u2018war\u2019 against a virus\u2014will see power flow to national capitals everywhere.\n\u201cFor there is one perennial winner in war. If a nation is not wholly destroyed,\nthe national government always emerges stronger, with new powers and new\ndominance\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The federal income tax was introduced in Australia in 1915,\nto help pay for World War 1, he points out. In the US it was introduced by the\nnational government during the Civil War in 1861, also to pay for the war\neffort. In Britain it was introduced in 1799 to help pay for the Napoleonic\nWars. \u201cIn Australia, income tax became wholly national, rather than\nstate-based, during World War II. Changes like this are never reversed. War is\nsupremely a national undertaking and it always leads to greater concentration\nof power in the national government\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Singapore\u2019s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told Sheridan in\na Skyped interview, that \u201cthe\nlogical extreme of a completely borderless world, where goods and people can\nmove freely, and you do not mind being completely dependent on one source for\nimportant things\u2014whether it is drugs or electronics or, for that matter, food\u2014is\ngoing to come under very searching scrutiny\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nicholas Mulder, an historian at Cornell\nUniversity, says in Foreign Policy magazine that \u201cafter\ndecades of falling unionisation, Western economies are confining much of their\nworkforce to their homes while enormously increasing their reliance on a vital\nset of workers in the care, logistics, and retail sectors\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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He notes that doctors, nurses,\ndelivery people, postal and transport workers, grocery store employees, shelf\nstockers, refuse collectors and caretakers, mechanics and tech employees, and\nfarm workers \u201care now, very clearly, the indispensable foundation of a\nfunctioning society. There is no precedent for the asymmetric mix of mobilisation\nand demobilisation of labour that we are witnessing right now. And as anyone\ncurrently working from home with children knows, the realms of office work,\nchild care, and other forms of domestic labour are colliding as never before\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broadening this perspective,\none can anticipate that the use of robotics will accelerate. Just-in-time\nproduction will decline. Governments will subsidise the establishment\u2014or\nre-establishment\u2014of facilities to produce medical and other items now perceived\nas essential for national security. Workers will only with reluctance, dread\nand resentment now enter the \u2018gig economy\u2019 or accept contract work rather than\npermanent employment.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

International Relations Professor at Harvard University Stephen Walt, also writing in Foreign Policy, says that \u201cthe pandemic will strengthen the state and reinforce nationalism. Governments of all types will adopt emergency measures to manage the crisis, and many will be loath to relinquish these new powers when the crisis is over. COVID-19 will also accelerate the shift in power and influence from West to East\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Korea and Singapore have\nresponded best, he believes, and China has reacted well after its early\nmistakes. \u201cThe response in Europe and America has been slow and haphazard by\ncomparison, further tarnishing the aura of the Western \u2018brand.\u2019 Previous\nplagues\u2014including the influenza epidemic of 1918-1919\u2014did not end great-power\nrivalry nor usher in a new era of global cooperation. Neither will COVID-19\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Walt anticipates a further\nretreat from \u2018hyperglobalisation\u2019, as citizens look to national governments to\nprotect them and as states and firms seek to reduce future vulnerabilities. \u201cIn\nshort, COVID-19 will create a world that is less open, less prosperous, and\nless free\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is likely to be the extent of the\npost-COVID-19 challenges in our Indo-Pacific region, more specifically?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ANZ Bank anticipates that the economy of the\nPeople\u2019s Republic of China (PRC) will not merely slow but contract\u2014for the\nfirst time since 1976, the climactic final year of the Cultural Revolution,\nduring which Mao Zedong died and the Tangshan earthquake killed a quarter of a\nmillion people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thomas Gatley of GavekalDragonomics agrees: \u201cChina\u2019s hopes of\nemerging from its own lockdown with a V-shaped growth rebound are evaporating.\nThe unprecedented shutdown of normal economic activity across Europe, the US\nand a growing number of emerging markets is certain to cause a dramatic\ncontraction in Chinese exports\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Japanese government is following\nTaiwan\u2019s successful lead in 2019 in offering substantial subsidies\u2014in Tokyo\u2019s\ncase totalling $A3 billion\u2014to companies investing back home rather than in\nChina. In Japan\u2019s case, some support is even being made available to firms that\nshift production centres to South East Asian countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“By focusing on the fostering and amalgamation of medical, health, and technological advances, China will become the world\u2019s leading economy sooner than expected”<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The PRC too is persisting in its\ndecade-long strategy, Made in China 2025, to shift away from being \u2018the world\u2019s\nfactory\u2019 to becoming a high-end, technologically advanced and self-reliant\nproducer\u2014crucially, dependent on home-grown corporations, both state and\nprivately owned, and away from the high degree of international engagement that\ndelivered its original rise during the 40 years of Deng Xiaoping\u2019s\nreform-and-opening of China\u2019s economy. This \u2018old era\u2019 is now contrasted by\nBeijing with Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2018Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics\nfor a New Era\u2019 that is enshrined in both state and Party constitutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The complex supply and production chains that\nhave formed the core of East Asia\u2019s economic success stories, and that required\nthe integration of manufacturing operations around Asia, often with final\nassembly taking place in the PRC\u2014thus the extent of the \u2018Made in China\u2019 tags\u2014appear\nlikely to have hit their zenith, with their unwinding accelerated by COVID-19\nas self-reliance re-emerges as a core economic value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alistair Nicholas, a Sydney-based business\nconsultant with extensive China experience, and Guy McKanna, co-founder\nof the Australian Transformation and Turnaround Association, say that the\nanswer is for Australia to engage far more fully, post-virus, with the PRC, confident\nin the success of its emerging strategies. They have written for the Lowy\nInstitute that \u201cas\nimportant as the health risks posed by the coronavirus pandemic and its\ncontainment are, leaders also need to start to think about the shape of the\npost\u2013COVID-19 global economy. If they don\u2019t, we all face a serious risk of\nsuccumbing to the new anti-globalisation protectionism that is on the rise\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They posit that \u201cChina is very likely going to\nemerge from the coronavirus crisis much stronger economically\u201d, as happened\nafter the SARS outbreak of 2003. \u201cBy focusing on\nthe fostering and amalgamation of medical, health, and technological advances,\nChina will become the world\u2019s leading economy sooner than expected\u2026 Chinese consumers will be more\ninclined to purchase goods and services online than at buildings where people\ngather. Even online education will become more attractive to China\u2019s students\u2014presenting\nboth a risk and an opportunity for our tertiary education sector\u2026\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Nicholas and McKanna believe that China\u2019s\n\u201ccommitment to innovative and transformative technologies\u2026 will see a leap\nacross the board, extending from its leadership in drones and automation,\ndriverless cars and better communications, and smart-cities, to especially\nfocus on healthcare and biotechnology\u2026\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than surreptitiously acquire these\ntechnologies from abroad, which was a major factor in the recent China-US trade\nwar, they say, China will this time have to entice technology firms from around\nthe world to bring it to them. \u201cThis will have\na major impact on global financial services, with technology developers soon to\nfind it easier to access a more open, yet still centralised, China\u201d, they claim\u2014despite the tone of its Made in\nChina 2025 campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leading Australian economist John Edwards,\nalso writing for Lowy, agrees\u2014to a degree\u2014within a broader macro context: \u201cThe\nincrease in debt compared to GDP need not much affect economic performance and\nis regardless a necessary consequence of trying to sustain demand while the\nvirus is brought under control. Central banks will have to keep rates very low\neven after economies have recovered. Lower for longer is going to be so low for\nso long that for many years we can forget about central banks capacity to\nstimulate economies. They will have none…\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The crisis, says Edwards, has reminded us\nof the authority of the state over markets and supranational institutions. \u201cAt\nthe same time it has reminded us of how much nations have in common with all\nothers, of the inescapable and irreversible fact of globalisation. It has\nqueried the pretensions of the superpowers. In the global contest between China\nand the US, neither of the proponents have done well\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He agrees with many analysts that the most\nsuccessful countries in dealing with the virus have been Singapore, Taiwan,\nHong Kong and Korea\u2014all, like Australia, relatively small and with good health\nsystems. He says: \u201cIn this crisis the rest of the world owes nothing to the\nleadership of either superpower. Although the pandemic started in China, the\nAsian regional economy, with China at its core, is coming out the crisis faster\nand stronger than Europe or the Americas. Decoupling from China will seem even\nmore of a fantasy\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the hard-won trade deal cobbled\ntogether recently between the PRC and the US looks to be at risk as the\ncoronavirus pandemic rocks the global economy, making it tough for Beijing to\nfulfil its commitments, warns international news agency AFP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It says in a commentary: \u201cThe US also\nfaces huge disruptions from the deadly virus while a diplomatic spat between\nBeijing and Washington threatens to derail the phase-one deal that came after\nmore than a year of escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest\neconomies\u201d. In the pact signed in January, China agreed to buy $A333 billion\nmore in US goods over two years than it did in 2017\u2014before the trade war\nerupted and triggered tariffs on billions of dollars of two-way trade. But\nconcerns are mounting that the conditions of the deal cannot be met as the\nworld economy is threatened by the lockdowns ordered by governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what of regional organisations? As we\nhave seen, ASEAN, APEC, the G20, have played minor roles if any during the\npandemic, while\nthe Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership spin-off from ASEAN Plus has so\nfar failed to find its feet following the decision last November to press on\nwithout India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could we see a revived Trans Pacific\nPartnership, stepping forward despite Trump pulling the US out of the pact in\n2017, following COVID-19?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nikkei\u2019s Rintaro Tobita says that leading\nmember Japan will make a fresh attempt to expand the TPP to include more\nAsian economies, such as Thailand, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines, after\nthe virus exposed the risks of supply chains over dependent on China. \u201cNegotiations\nwill officially begin in August, when the 11 existing members – Australia,\nBrunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore\nand Vietnam – hold a ministerial meeting in Mexico. Japan has already begun\nlaying the groundwork by sending a high-ranking negotiator to Thailand\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tobita notes that Japan will chair the TPP\nin 2021, when talks are expected to kick into high gear. \u201cThe move comes amid a\nrealisation that diversifying production is increasingly important\u201d. But China\nhas also played a growing role in Japanese supply chains in recent years, and\nit is not impossible to imagine Beijing considering the reforms needed to apply\nto join TPP itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Richard Martin, the Singapore-based\nmanaging director of leading regional business analysts IMA Asia, says that:\n\u201cMost advanced countries and a lot of Asia can cope with a second weak year of\nglobal demand. The challenge will be for a small number of consumers,\ncompanies, sectors, and countries that have loaded up on cheap debt over the\nlast few years and face a fall in income to service that debt\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He warns that in this pandemic period,\n\u201ccountries with traditional uneasy relations with China, like Vietnam, will\nneed to keep a lid on anti-Chinese sentiment\u201d. While \u201cChina will continue to\nwelcome foreign investors, a growing number will want to ring-fence China\noperations and reduce supply chain reliance. That\u2019s a plus for alternative\nproduction sites in north east and south east Asia\u201d. A big fall in oil prices\ngenerally means lower inflation across Asia, although a few prices will jump\ndue to shortages of certain goods from China. Thus, interest rates will remain\nlow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In China, Xi Jinping is using the\ntrenchant manner of the anti-virus campaign eventually adopted after\nwhistleblowers were initially rebuffed and punished, to reinforce his already\nmassive political dominance\u2014brandishing his new title of \u201cPeople\u2019s Leader\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In South Korea, the conservative parties\nled by the Liberty Korea Party are seeking to gain control of the legislature\nin April 15 elections, which would make single-term President Moon Jae-in,\nleader of the Democratic Party of Korea, a lame-duck leader for his final two\nyears. The comparative success of the COVID-19 control efforts may keep Moon\u2019s\nDPK in control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Malaysia, with governance confused by\nthe complex manoeuvrings that led to the recent change of leadership, the large\nexport manufacturing sector, strong in electronics, is struggling due to\nshortages in supply from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Singapore is due for an election within\nthe next year, and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, likely to step aside during\nthe next term, will be looking to capitalise on his government\u2019s strong\nperformance in virus control. The country may also gain from some trade\ndiversion from China and Hong Kong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vietnam, a TPP member which has also\nsigned an FTA with Europe, has opened itself to a program of reform\u2014including\nindependent trade unions\u00ad\u2014driven by requirements associated with joining these\neconomic pacts. Like Malaysia, it too is vulnerable to its big supply chain\nlinkages into the Chinese economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thailand, IMA Asia warns, \u201chas the least\ncapable political system for coping with COVId-19\u201d, since its government,\neffectively still a military dictatorship, attracts only lukewarm popular support\nat best. Its economy had already stalled in the final quarter of 2019, as\ndomestic and export demand tumbled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Rodrigo Duterte entered the\nCOVID-19 year in strong political form, and with the economy in excellent\nshape, and could coast through his final two years of his single term while\nseeking to install a successor of his choosing, but he is following his\ninstinct anyway to use the pandemic to crack down on a public that appears to\ncontinue to relish his threats and bullying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indonesia is one of the least exposed\ncountries to China in Asia\u201416 per cent of exports and 13 per cent of tourists,\nthough Chinese imports comprise 26 per cent. Growth has been slow under\nPresident Jokowi though, almost a percentage point below the 5.7 per cent average\nin the decade before he took office, and the virus will collapse this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taiwan, its government and President Tsai\nIng-wen re-elected in a landslide in January, is viewed, alongside Korea and\nSingapore, as a model in combatting COVID-19, and with production already\nreshoring from China, appears as well placed as any in Asia to recover from the\nviral impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Hong Kong, besieged chief executive\nCarrie Lam has come under further criticism for failing to close the border\nwith China earlier. This year\u2019s budget was already expected to fall into\ndeficit\u2014for only the second time in 15 years\u2014of $A17 billion, and the impact of\nthe virus will of course massively add to that, and to popular antipathy to\nboth local and Beijing governments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan of course lost the Olympic Games\u2014for\n2020, anyway\u2014 to COVID-19, as well as the historic visit from President Xi\nscheduled for April. But Asian countries concerned about the manner of\nBeijing\u2019s initial management of the virus are likely to look to veteran prime\nminister Shinzo Abe to display regional leadership as the shape of the\npost-pandemic Indo-Pacific era opens itself to new directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Martin says that overall, \u201cwhat is\nstriking in the COVID-19 outbreak is the speed and scale of the response by\ngovernment, organisations, and many firms\u201d in the region\u2014reflecting in part,\nlessons learned from prior virus outbreaks, and in part, the internet\u2019s\nenabling of faster information and action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“One of the other longer lasting fruit of COVID-19 is likely to be a sense of living in a provisional age”<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It is possible that those countries whose\npatterns of response and of effectiveness in tackling COVID-19 feel drawn\ncloser together\u2014in which case, Australia\u2019s connections with developed East\nAsian economies including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and perhaps\nHong Kong, as well as its closer neighbour New Zealand, may be reinforced in\nthe period of emergence from the grip of the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the appetite for greater globalisation\noverall, beyond some elites, appears to be waning, while the desire for greater\nenmeshment with the PRC is also tempered, by concerns about the light thrown on\nits governance through the manner of its initial management of COVID-19, and\nthe tone of its more recent associated propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the other longer lasting fruit of COVID-19 is likely\nto be a sense of living in a provisional age, a reluctance to plunge into epic\nenduring commitments or to construct bold new worlds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For many will from today onwards sense, as Albert Camus testified in the closing words of his classic 1947 novel La Peste, <\/em>that \u201cthe plague bacillus never dies or vanishes entirely… it can remain dormant for dozens of years in furniture or clothing… it waits patiently in bedrooms, cellars, trunks, handkerchiefs and old papers, and… perhaps the day will come when, for the instruction or misfortune of mankind, the plague will rouse its rats and send them to die in some well-contented city”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rowan Callick<\/a> is an Industry Fellow of Griffith University\u2019s Asia Institute<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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