{"id":7233,"date":"2020-05-08T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-08T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=7233"},"modified":"2023-03-29T14:52:45","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T04:52:45","slug":"the-great-global-coronavirus-crisis-and-the-pics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-great-global-coronavirus-crisis-and-the-pics\/","title":{"rendered":"The great \u2018Global Coronavirus Crisis\u2019 and the PICs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The COVID-19 pandemic<\/em>\nhas hit the globe very hard, especially given the economies were still recovering\nfrom the recent shocks of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and European Debt Crisis.\nThe COVID-19 outbreak spread at an astonishing rate, pushing the world into the\nthird crisis in a row\u2014the great Global Coronavirus Crisis (GCC). This is an\nexogenous shock and it caught the world off-guard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coronaviruses<\/a>\nare a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from common cold to\nmore severe diseases\u2014these are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between\nanimals and people. COVID-19 proved to be more contagious, both domestically\nand globally, compared to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS<\/em>) of the early 2000s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The GCC, inflicted by COVID-19, is likely to have more\nharmful effects on the socio-economic and financial fabric of the globe than\nthe GFC of 2008-09. Looking retrospectively, the GFC started in the\nbanking\/financial sector and then it turned into an economy-wide and a world-wide\nrecession. The GCC is unprecedented and started from the health sector, adding a\nnew dimension to the prevalent waves of global economic uncertainties, and will\nimpede global<\/em> investment and growth for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The spread and longevity of lockdown will affect trade, and put\nthe pace of globalisation on hold. Its ripple effects could be serious across many spheres of domestic\nand global economies, particularly for the health, hotel, travel and service sectors.\nThe industries in these sectors are likely to run on break-even or suffer\nlosses. The stock markets plummeted perceptibly, radiating the shock waves\nacross investors. The situation unavoidably came to the state of global\nshut-down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The usual tools of monetary policy (reduction in interest\nrate) and fiscal policy (stimulus package) were employed to provide\ndemand-driven stimulus to economic growth during the GFC. These tools served\nthe purpose, as the GFC was caused by crises in the banking\/financial sector. By\ncontrast, the GCC unprecedently spurted from the health sectorand the\nspeed of its impact has been faster than that of the GFC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The short-term macro-management policies (monetary and\nfiscal policies) are useful to provide Keynesian demand-driven solutions. However,\nthe effectiveness of the monetary policy (reduction in interest rate) and\nfiscal policy (stimulus package) prescriptions in healing the global economy\nremains to be seen. Nevertheless, these policies would be useful in terms of\npreventing or reviving the shattered confidence of consumers and investors\u2014they\nwill help keep the sentiments of consumers and investors alive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Low interest rates will affect the profitability of banks,\ndepending on the degree of their pass-through to consumers. The interest rate\nis already at the Keynesian \u2018rock-bottom\u2019 level, and any downward push is highly\nunlikely to have any material effect on the economy. Low interest rates may\ncontribute to the effectiveness of monetary policy via the exchange rate\nchannel. It will lead to the depreciation of domestic currency which, in turn, will\nboost exports. Such depreciation, however, may not be very significant in\nrelative terms, given that the currencies of most economies depreciate by the\nsame or even higher proportions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fiscal policy becomes more useful when the economy is\nsituated in the Keynesian \u2018liquidity trap\u2019. However, it is never a free-lunch. The\nKeynesian fiscal solutions\/support will come at the cost of rising budget\ndeficits and higher public debts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID-19 sends important signals to the health industry in\nthat it foreshadows the need for a even stronger health care infrastructure\naround the globe\u2014the number of hospitals, doctors, nurses, and the accommodative\ncapacity of the existing hospitals. It also underlines the need for continual\nresearch in the pharmaceutical\nindustry in innovating new pharmaceutical products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PICs\u2014yester year, now and beyond<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are heavily dependent on\ntheir tourism sectors. This sector contributes significantly to their GDP and\nemployment (see Figures 1 and 2). The World Bank projections made earlier\nbefore the outbreak of COVID-19 suggest that in 2040, transformational tourism\nopportunities could bring an additional US$1.7\nbillion in revenue and 116,000 jobs<\/a> to Pacific Island Countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: The direct contribution of travel and tourism\nto GDP has increased in most PICs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: World Travel and Tourism Council<\/a> (WTTC)<\/em> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2: Long-term tourism growth has been positive, but performance varies between PICs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: World Tourism Organization<\/a> (UNWTO) and the World Bank <\/em> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The tourism sector bears the significant brunt, and this ripples through to the rest of the economy in terms of its effects on economic growth and employment. The export of tourism services suffers a significant decline. The COVID-19 shock superimposes on the shock of natural disasters, which PICs remain vulnerable to. The tourism sector, which previously served as a steppingstone to progress has turned out to be a stumbling block now, given the heavy reliance on this sector. The stimulus packages provided by the governments will be useful to provide short-term solutions, but at the cost of higher budget deficits and public debt. In fact, the PICs do not have much fiscal space, given that they already have high levels of public debt. Further increase in public debt will exacerbate the vulnerability of their banking sector, which invests in so-called \u2018risk-free\u2019 sovereign securities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID-19 leaves a legacy of important lessons for the PICs in\nthat they need to reorient their long-term development strategy. Heavy reliance\non one sector\u2014tourism\u2014amounts to putting all their eggs in one basket. The\ndiversification of the development goals is essentially inevitable to\nstrengthen the resilience of PICs to the shocks which could erupt from anywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Debt relief and financial support from the multilateral\norganisations\u2014International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Asian\nDevelopment Bank\u2014are inevitably essential to enable PICs to strengthen their\npolicy-based research to identify the key areas of strategic importance and\nchalk out well-grounded long-term development strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Associate Professor Tarlok Singh<\/strong>, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics and member of the Griffith Asia Institute<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the globe very hard, especially given the economies were still recovering from the recent shocks of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and European Debt Crisis. The COVID-19 outbreak spread at an astonishing rate, pushing the world into the third crisis in a row\u2014the great Global Coronavirus Crisis (GCC). This is anContinue reading “The great \u2018Global Coronavirus Crisis\u2019 and the PICs”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":7236,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1105,1427,1755,1021,248,1055,1057],"tags":[981,1052,1087,779,789,891],"class_list":["post-7233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coronavirus-in-the-pacific","category-pacific-forum","category-governance-democracy","category-pacific-outlook","category-png-and-the-pacific","category-economies-and-development","category-security","tag-associate-professor-tarlok-singh","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-economic-growth","tag-south-pacific-centre-for-central-banking","tag-spccb"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nThe great \u2018Global Coronavirus 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