{"id":7937,"date":"2020-09-07T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-09-07T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=7937"},"modified":"2023-08-08T09:23:10","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T23:23:10","slug":"india-in-the-wake-of-a-pandemic-driven-recession-massive-loss-modest-response","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/india-in-the-wake-of-a-pandemic-driven-recession-massive-loss-modest-response\/","title":{"rendered":"India in the wake of a pandemic-driven recession: Massive loss, modest response?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

YAN ISLAM<\/a> | <\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s national statistical agency announced on\u00a0August 31 that quarterly (April to June, 2020) GDP declined by a massive 23.9 percent.<\/a>\u00a0This was the largest recorded GDP contraction among major economies\u00a0(see Figure 1).<\/strong>\u00a0Thus, the Indian economy is heading towards an unavoidable recession for the FY 2020-21 which could surpass the severity of the\u00a0five recessions\u00a0<\/a>that the nation has endured since Independence in 1947.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Change in quarterly real GDP (%) April-June 2019 to April-June 2020<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Source: The Indian Express<\/a>, September 2, 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Finance Minister<\/a> called the latest developments an \u2018act of God\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThis year we are facing an extraordinary situation\u2026 we are facing an act of God which might even result in a contraction of the economy, to what percent I am not getting into that.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The tentative observation \u2018might even result in contraction\u2019 became a harsh reality soon after the Honourable Minister spoke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country\u2019s central bank<\/a> (Reserve Bank of India: RBI) was fearing the worst when, a week prior to the August 31 release of the GDP figures, it noted:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201c\u2026high frequency indicators that have arrived so far point to a retrenchment in activity that is unprecedented in history\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It also offered model-based estimates that the \u2018output gap\u2019 (actual GDP falling short of potential GDP) would be severe (-12 percent). To make matters worse, the RBI, in typically sedate and understated fashion, highlighted the fact that the economy was slowing down sharply well before the onset of COVID-19. Thus, it noted:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201c\u2026From Q1:2018-19, (the Indian economy) \u2026lost speed continuously over the next 8 quarters, reaching 3.1 per cent in Q4:2019- 20, the lowest in the national accounts series\u2026\u201d (see Figure 2). <\/strong>Furthermore, it noted with disappointment that investment \u2013 a major engine of growth \u2013 was faltering well before COVID-19 descended with full force on India:<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cA slowdown in fixed investment set in from 2011-12 and became entrenched from Q4:2018- 19, slumping into contraction from Q2:2019-20.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2: India GDP growth quarterly year-on-year (%)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Source: Scroll.in<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The irony is that, despite a draconian nationwide lockdown regime, pursued over several weeks during March and April, there is little evidence that COVID-19 is under control in India (see Figure 3).<\/strong> As one economist lamented:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe bleak data on the economy \u2026<\/strong>and the seemingly runaway COVID-19 pandemic \u2026<\/strong> point to serious shortcomings about the Indian government\u2019s response\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases (rolling 7-day average)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Source: Indian Express, September 2, 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what about the government\u2019s response? The headline statistics, as embellished by the government in May 2020, revealed that the government was committed to spending an impressive 10 percent of GDP<\/a> to cope with the adverse economic consequences of the current pandemic. The IMF, in its \u2018Policy Tracker\u2019<\/a> , suggests a mundane package of measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIndia\u2019s fiscal support measures can be divided into two broad categories: (i) direct spending (about 1.7 percent of GDP) and foregone or deferred revenue (about 0.3 percent of GDP falling due within the current year); and (ii) below-the-line measures designed to support businesses and shore up credit provision to several sectors (about 4.9 percent of GDP). The key direct-spending measures are: in-kind (food; cooking gas) and cash transfers to lower-income households; insurance coverage for workers in the healthcare sector; and wage support and employment provision to low-wage workers. An additional 150 billion rupees (about 0.1 percent of GDP) will be devoted to health infrastructure.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Is this enough? Not really, says an evaluation from Brookings Institution.<\/a> The authors of this evaluation note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201c(The) funding responses and relief measures targeted at the poor and vulnerable\u2026falls short as it mostly reallocates funding across existing budgets or allows people to make advance withdrawals on their social benefits rather than mobilizing additional funding. India needs to do more to help the families of low wage workers displaced from their jobs by the lockdown and the weakening economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It remains to be seen whether, in light of the latest quarterly GDP figures, the government will come up with a more ambitious and comprehensive fiscal stimulus package to cope with the dire economic consequences of COVID-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iyanatul Islam<\/strong> is an Adjunct Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute and former Branch Chief, ILO, Geneva. The views expressed in this blog are the author\u2019s own and should not be attributed to the ILO.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

YAN ISLAM | India\u2019s national statistical agency announced on\u00a0August 31 that quarterly (April to June, 2020) GDP declined by a massive 23.9 percent.\u00a0This was the largest recorded GDP contraction among major economies\u00a0(see Figure 1).\u00a0Thus, the Indian economy is heading towards an unavoidable recession for the FY 2020-21 which could surpass the severity of the\u00a0five recessions\u00a0thatContinue reading “India in the wake of a pandemic-driven recession: Massive loss, modest response?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":7933,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1170,233,246,1055],"tags":[1087,779,512,1139,1320],"class_list":["post-7937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-feature-series","category-india-and-south-asia","category-economies-and-development","tag-covid-19","tag-economic-growth","tag-india","tag-iyantul-islam","tag-yan-islam"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"\nIndia in the wake of a pandemic-driven recession: Massive loss, modest response? 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