{"id":8094,"date":"2020-11-06T12:00:03","date_gmt":"2020-11-06T02:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=8094"},"modified":"2020-11-06T17:18:22","modified_gmt":"2020-11-06T07:18:22","slug":"nuclear-ban-treaty-wishful-thinking-over-realism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/nuclear-ban-treaty-wishful-thinking-over-realism\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuclear Ban Treaty: Wishful thinking over realism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lacking enforcement mechanisms or a practical path to<br>elimination, the treaty has little chance of being effective.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You could be forgiven&nbsp;for assuming&nbsp;that&nbsp;governments of the world inhabit two parallel universes. In July this year, Australia launched the 2020&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.defence.gov.au%2Fstrategicupdate-2020%2F&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cdflitton%40lowyinstitute.org%7Cfea4ef95bb6a4536412d08d87b96c063%7C1fb32338ad1940db98fdc701f150c316%7C0%7C0%7C637395234700277671%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=Qy4RR2e8CYPW%2FMDJtiD7nMINVpfKmb5uOkJT75xuygo%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Defence Strategic Update<\/a>, which concluded that its region \u201cis in the midst of the most consequential strategic realignment since the Second World War\u201d. Pledging more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in new and upgraded capabilities between now and 2030, Prime Minister Scott Morrison&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fpolitics%2Ffederal%2Fpm-harks-to-1930s-as-he-bolsters-east-coast-defences-20200701-p557zr&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cdflitton%40lowyinstitute.org%7Cfea4ef95bb6a4536412d08d87b96c063%7C1fb32338ad1940db98fdc701f150c316%7C0%7C0%7C637395234700287668%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=fKHmeL51L02gOTY1BBXM4aZsVw5NknMjgBw7DzI%2Be0E%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">invoked<\/a>&nbsp;the 1930s to warn of \u201cthe&nbsp;multiple challenges and radical uncertainty we face\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In contrast, the entry into force of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fundocs.org%2FA%2FCONF.229%2F2017%2F8&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cdflitton%40lowyinstitute.org%7Cfea4ef95bb6a4536412d08d87b96c063%7C1fb32338ad1940db98fdc701f150c316%7C0%7C0%7C637395234700287668%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=P4WMOdvQWj06js9TcfctsoVBt1XNzYj4VVS2A1fJPjo%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons<\/a>&nbsp;(the Ban Treaty) presents as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lowyinstitute.org%2Fthe-interpreter%2Fwhere-will-australia-stand-banning-weapons-mass-destruction&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cdflitton%40lowyinstitute.org%7Cfea4ef95bb6a4536412d08d87b96c063%7C1fb32338ad1940db98fdc701f150c316%7C0%7C0%7C637395234700297661%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=qCTM7WzCmIfP4ADHY5euC2N14yrN0kN1k7eKPQtGIlM%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hopes among&nbsp;some&nbsp;other nations<\/a>&nbsp;that sheer force of will is enough to bring about a world free of nuclear weapons. Established in 2017, the Ban Treaty commits states parties not to manufacture, transfer, station or receive and \u201cnever to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons\u201d. The Treaty represents a watershed insofar as it obligates complete nuclear disarmament with no conditions \u2013 unlike&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aus01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.un.org%2Fdisarmament%2Fwmd%2Fnuclear%2Fnpt%2Ftext&amp;data=04%7C01%7Cdflitton%40lowyinstitute.org%7Cfea4ef95bb6a4536412d08d87b96c063%7C1fb32338ad1940db98fdc701f150c316%7C0%7C0%7C637395234700297661%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&amp;sdata=UHUY9Xo3aYd51snyxXvXCMYYJXKVLef5PbAbpwxBYmQ%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the Non-Proliferation Treaty<\/a>,&nbsp;which has carve-outs for the five countries that tested nuclear devices prior to 1 January 1967 and aims to achieve nuclear disarmament in the context of general disarmament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regrettably, however, the Ban Treaty is a triumph of wishful thinking over realism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rather than fashion a treaty that provides a&nbsp;<em>practical<\/em>&nbsp;pathway to eliminating nuclear weapons, the Ban Treaty\u2019s authors have actually made it harder. As members of the NPT, North Korea, Iran and Iraq all agreed not to acquire nuclear weapons, and have sought to do so anyway.&nbsp;The Ban Treaty does not even try to address the problem of verification and compliance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/nuclear-ban-treaty-wishful-thinking-over-realism\">Nuclear Ban Treaty: Wishful thinking over realism<\/a>&#8221; article originally published at The Interpreter, written by Professor Stephan Fr\u00fchling<\/em> and <em><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\">Griffith Asia Institute<\/a> Researcher, <a href=\"https:\/\/experts.griffith.edu.au\/18545-andrew-o'neil\">Professor Andrew O&#8217;Neil<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lacking enforcement mechanisms or a practical path toelimination, the treaty has little chance of being effective. You could be forgiven&nbsp;for assuming&nbsp;that&nbsp;governments of the world inhabit two parallel universes. In July this year, Australia launched the 2020&nbsp;Defence Strategic Update, which concluded that its region \u201cis in the midst of the most consequential strategic realignment since the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":8095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1170,1053,245,1057],"tags":[602,474,1508,475,799],"class_list":["post-8094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-australia","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-security","tag-australia","tag-north-korea","tag-nucleur","tag-professor-andrew-oneil","tag-security"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nuclear Ban Treaty: Wishful thinking over realism | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lacking enforcement mechanisms or a practical path toelimination, the treaty has little chance of being effective. 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