{"id":8143,"date":"2020-12-09T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-12-09T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=8143"},"modified":"2023-08-08T08:26:43","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T22:26:43","slug":"charting-a-course-to-2050-in-the-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/charting-a-course-to-2050-in-the-pacific\/","title":{"rendered":"Charting a course to 2050 in the Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

PETER LAYTON<\/a>, WESLEY MORGAN<\/a> AND TESS NEWTON CAIN<\/a>\u00a0 |\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders meeting in Tuvalu, member countries agreed to develop the 2050 Blue Pacific strategy<\/a>. The draft will be considered at the 2021 PIF Leaders Summit in Fiji<\/a>. To assist with this, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) sought answers<\/a> to several carefully focussed questions.  The Griffith Asia Institute, given its long-standing involvement in Pacific islands research<\/a> made a submission which is summarised below.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

DFAT: What are the major challenges facing our region as we work together to achieve the vision for a Blue Pacific Continent by 2050?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The PIF and other Pacific-led groupings have achieved much in providing regional diplomatic leadership on the two major contemporary challenges: climate change and geostrategic competition. Between now and 2050 there is an opportunity to build on these accomplishments and galvanise greater ambition and action, particularly when it comes to addressing climate change. However, there is a risk that latent fault lines between members of the PIF could undermine the bloc\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to geostrategic competition<\/a>, Pacific island countries are affected by changes in the wider international system rather than only competition between China and the USA.   Chinese<\/a> and US interest<\/a> in the region fluctuates but the international system within which the PIF functions endures, offering more diplomatic opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other challenges include those associated with stimulating and maintaining a unique economic and social development process that will be inclusive and sustainable, and will nurture Pacific island livelihoods and cultures. There will be ongoing tensions associated in progressing the benefits of working together<\/a> (the \u2018regionalism project<\/a>\u2019) against the backdrop of the domestic political realities of delivering at national and sub-national levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Importantly, by 2050, the Pacific islands region population is expected to increase by some 75 per cent. This will occur unevenly. Whilst the \u2018youth bulge<\/a>\u2019 of the Pacific (especially Melanesia) has been recognised for some time, there is also now an increasingly ageing population. This has significant economic and social effects, such as an increased incidence of non-communicable age-related diseases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DFAT: How might these challenges impact on our region over the next 30 years to 2050?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Global warming modelling indicates several future negative impacts<\/a> are probable. These include a change in the frequency, distribution and severity of tropical cyclones. In addition, Cook Islands, Fiji, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu will experience more severe storms more often. Sea level rises are expected to contaminate some islands\u2019 water supplies through saltwater intrusions, negatively affecting agriculture. Lastly, the movement of fish stocks towards cooler higher latitude waters and further east will lead to significant decreases in catches in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of several Pacific island countries<\/a>. This will create considerable economic turbulence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In being a political matter, geostrategic competition impacts are more uncertain than global warming which is a well-modelled scientific phenomenon<\/a>.  Thinking about geostrategic issues is better handled by devising scenarios of what might occur.  Four potential \u201cPacific futures\u201d<\/a> were devised:<\/p>\n\n\n\n