President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic China and President Ma Ying-jeou of\u00a0the Republic of China in Taiwan conducted a historic meeting in Singapore on\u00a0November 7, 2015. The meeting is symbolic in nature because neither a joint\u00a0statement nor an agreement has been signed by the leaders across the Strait. However, the implications of the meeting for regional security are profound.<\/p>\n
First, the meeting opened a new phase of bilateral relations between the\u00a0mainland and Taiwan. Despite increasing economic and cultural linkages\u00a0between the mainland and Taiwan, political talks or negotiations have been a\u00a0political taboo for many years. Although the Xi-Ma meeting will have limited\u00a0effects on the upcoming elections in Taiwan in early 2016, it signified a new\u00a0stage of bilateral relations across the Taiwan Strait. Based on recent polls, it is\u00a0highly likely that the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party), the opposition party\u00a0in Taiwan, will win the presidential election. However, no matter who comes to\u00a0power, the Xi-Ma meeting has set a new “status quo” that will constrain the new\u00a0Taiwanese leader’s policy behavior toward the mainland because any pro-independent rhetoric or policy will be seen as a setback from the “status quo.”<\/p>\n
After Ma announced his meeting, Tsai Ying-wen, the DPP presidential candidate,\u00a0also stated that she would not exclude the possibility to meet Xi Jinping if she is\u00a0elected in February, 2016. It seems that the Xi-Ma meeting has signified a new\u00a0starting point for the relations across the Strait.\u00a0Although the future of Taiwan\u00a0issue is still full of uncertainties, one thing is clear: a bilateral summit, if it can be\u00a0institutionalized, will be conducive\u00a0<\/span>to maintaining stability and peace across the\u00a0Strait.<\/p>\n Second, the Xi-Ma meeting might encourage pragmatic cooperation between the\u00a0mainland and Taiwan on the territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the\u00a0East China Sea. Regarding the Diaoyu\/Senkaku islands and the South China Sea,\u00a0the mainland and Taiwan hold the same sovereign claims based on historical\u00a0records. For example, in late October, 2015 the Hague-based Permanent Court of\u00a0Arbitration (PCA) ruled that it had jurisdiction over the case filed by the\u00a0Philippines, which contested China’s claims to nearly 90 percent of the South\u00a0China Sea. Both the mainland and Taiwan issued official statements insisting that\u00a0they would not recognize the ruling by the PCA, because China has “indisputable\u00a0sovereignty over the South China Sea Islands and the adjacent waters.” Xi and Ma\u00a0might not have discussed the South China Sea and the East China Sea issues at\u00a0their closed-door meeting in Singapore. However, the meeting itself may pave\u00a0the path for pragmatic cooperation or coordination between relevant\u00a0bureaucracies of the two sides.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Last but not least, the Xi-Ma meeting might influence the dynamics of US-China\u00a0competition in the long run. Taiwan is a de facto ally of the United States.\u00a0Although the United States recognizes the “One China” principle, it has still\u00a0provided advanced weapons to Taiwan for defending itself against the mainland.\u00a0The United States just conducted a freedom of navigation (FON) patrol in the\u00a0waters near the Subi and Mischief reefs controlled by the mainland China, and\u00a0the US action is widely seen as a direct challenge to China’s ambitions in the\u00a0South China Sea. If the strategic competition between China and the United\u00a0States in the South China Sea is inevitable in the future, Taiwan’s position might\u00a0be a key factor in shaping the final outcome. Due to the similar historical claims\u00a0over the South China Sea, cooperation or coordination between the mainland\u00a0and Taiwan might influence the power balance\u00a0between China and other\u00a0parties. Although the US unparalleled naval power is less likely to be challenged,\u00a0practical assistances or even a neutral stand by Taiwan will be a strategic asset\u00a0for China in the territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas.<\/p>\n