{"id":8697,"date":"2021-10-25T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-24T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=8697"},"modified":"2023-08-06T13:36:54","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T03:36:54","slug":"storm-warning-chinese-grey-zone-futures-inbound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/storm-warning-chinese-grey-zone-futures-inbound\/","title":{"rendered":"Storm warning: Chinese grey zone futures inbound"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As competition with China deepens, the nation\u2019s use of gray zone techniques is becoming of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cimsec.org\/andrew-s-erickson-and-ryan-d-martinson-discuss-chinas-maritime-gray-zone-operations\/\">increasing importance and interest<\/a>. China has been using this approach for many years in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eastasiaforum.org\/2021\/01\/13\/covid-19-masks-mischief-in-the-south-china-sea\/\">South China Sea<\/a>, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbr.org\/publication\/chinas-gray-zone-capabilities-in-the-east-china-sea\/\">East China Sea,&nbsp;<\/a>and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/blogs\/analysis\/2020\/06\/india-china-border-crisis-beijing-ambitions\">India\/China border<\/a>, to name some prominent examples. Understanding the history behind these is important, but equally so is where China\u2019s gray zone stratagems may be heading. In this, we live in the future, not the past.&nbsp;Understanding the direction towards which Chinese gray zone activities may evolve could give early warning about China\u2019s likely next steps. Suitable responses could then be considered and implemented in a measured manner, without the time pressures induced by a sudden, unexpected crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article discusses three forward-leaning aspects: long-term trends, wild cards, and the shape of China\u2019s future gray zone actions. Considered together, these outline future Chinese gray zone possibilities at the strategic and tactical levels, helping avoid potentially nasty surprises.&nbsp;Gray zone as used here builds on Michael Mazarr\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/publications.armywarcollege.edu\/pubs\/2372.pdf\">seminal work<\/a>. Crucially, gray zone techniques are distinct from hybrid warfare. Gray zone techniques do not involve deliberate armed violence; hybrid warfare does, as defined in Frank Hoffman\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cco.ndu.edu\/news\/article\/1680696\/examining-complex-forms-of-conflict-gray-zone-and-hybrid-challenges\/\">influential examinations<\/a>. In recent years, China has doubled down on gray zone activities while&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cepa.org\/the-evolution-of-russian-hybrid-warfare-introduction\/\">Russia remains attracted<\/a>&nbsp;to hybrid warfare. Neither the activities nor the countries should be conflated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/cimsec.org\/storm-warning-chinese-gray-zone-futures-inbound\/\">Storm warning: Chinese grey zone futures inbound<\/a>&#8221; article published at the Center for International Maritime Security, written by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| As competition with China deepens, the nation\u2019s use of gray zone techniques is becoming of&nbsp;increasing importance and interest. China has been using this approach for many years in the&nbsp;South China Sea, the&nbsp;East China Sea,&nbsp;and the&nbsp;India\/China border, to name some prominent examples. Understanding the history behind these is important, but equally so is where [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":8698,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1170,245,1057],"tags":[284,728,685,1082],"class_list":["post-8697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-china-and-north-east-asia","category-security","tag-china","tag-grey-zone-tactics","tag-grey-zone-operations","tag-peter-layton"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Storm warning: Chinese grey zone futures inbound | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| As competition with China deepens, the nation\u2019s use of gray zone techniques is becoming of&nbsp;increasing importance and interest. China\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/storm-warning-chinese-grey-zone-futures-inbound\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Storm warning: Chinese grey zone futures inbound | Griffith Asia Insights\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| As competition with China deepens, the nation\u2019s use of gray zone techniques is becoming of&nbsp;increasing importance and interest. 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As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. In general,\u00a0grey-zone activities\u00a0involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9989,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/duelling-battle-networks-the-new-equilibrium\/","url_meta":{"origin":8697,"position":1},"title":"Duelling battle networks: The new equilibrium","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"21 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON | With digital technology omnipresent, future major wars will most likely pivot around duelling battle networks. These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4913,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-tenth-man-wars-changing-nature-in-an-ai-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":8697,"position":2},"title":"\u201cThe tenth man\u201d \u2014 War\u2019s changing nature in an AI world","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a debate underway about the\u00a0nature of war. Some say it\u2019s immutable, others say hogwash; ironically both sides quote Clausewitz for support. Interestingly,\u00a0Secretary of Defense Mattis, once an \u2018immutable\u2019 defender, has now\u00a0declared\u00a0he\u2019s not sure anymore, given recent\u00a0Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0\u00a0developments. At the core of the immutable case is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5662,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/prototype-warfare-in-the-fourth-industrial-age\/","url_meta":{"origin":8697,"position":3},"title":"Prototype warfare in the fourth industrial age","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| A new industrial process is rapidly emerging.\u00a0 This fourth industrial revolution (4IR) based on hyper-connectivity brings with it both continual \u2013 indeed relentless \u2013 innovation and the possibility of practical large-scale prototype warfare. The interweaving of the second and third industrial revolutions is creating the fourth. This new\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5681,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/mobilising-defence-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution\/","url_meta":{"origin":8697,"position":4},"title":"Mobilising Defence in the \u201cfourth industrial revolution\u201d","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"19 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Australia\u2019s future wars may not run to our timetable. Our recent wars of choice have allowed participation as and when we wished. If some future conflict is short notice however, the Australian Defence Force may lack the logistic backup to be more than a one-shot force, operationally viable\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/4IR-3D-bomb-nose-fuse-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10364,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/perspectivesasia-surviving-the-new-cold-war-as-a-middle-power\/","url_meta":{"origin":8697,"position":5},"title":"Perspectives:Asia | Surviving the new cold war as a middle power","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sQdLsEG1VeQ PERSPECTIVES:ASIA\u00a0|\u00a0PETER K LEE\u00a0| In the evolving landscape of the Indo-Pacific, middle powers such as Australia are confronted with increasingly complex choices between the United States and China. This new Cold War presents unique challenges and opportunities, and Australia, once navigating a different geopolitical reality, now finds itself among a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Event - Perspectives:Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Event - Perspectives:Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/events\/perspectives-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(L-R) Professor Ian Hall, Acting Director, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University, Dr Peter K Lee, Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre and Korea Foundation Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne\u2019s Asia Institute and Tarun Nagesh, Curatorial Manager, Asian and Pacific Art at QAGOMA. 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