{"id":8740,"date":"2021-11-12T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=8740"},"modified":"2023-08-08T08:23:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T22:23:01","slug":"the-fate-of-our-planet-depends-on-the-next-few-days-of-complex-diplomacy-in-glasgow-heres-what-needs-to-go-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-fate-of-our-planet-depends-on-the-next-few-days-of-complex-diplomacy-in-glasgow-heres-what-needs-to-go-right\/","title":{"rendered":"The fate of our planet depends on the next few days of complex diplomacy in Glasgow. Here\u2019s what needs to go right"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WESLEY MORGAN<\/a> | <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new, grim projection, released overnight by Climate Action Tracker<\/a>, has dashed the cautious optimism following last week\u2019s commitments at the UN climate talks in Glasgow. It found the world is still headed for 2.1\u2103 of warming this century, even if all pledges are met.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similar new analysis from Climate Analytics<\/a> suggests if global warming is to be limited to 1.5\u2103, an enormous ambition gap remains for this decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, national leaders shared their plans to cut carbon pollution and to transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Some countries made much more ambitious commitments than others. The UK for example, as summit hosts, pledged to cut emissions by 68% this decade, while Australia \u2013 a clear laggard among developed countries \u2013 refused to strengthen the target it set in 2015 to cut emissions by 26-28% by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, national announcements clarify that the world has made some progress since the 2015 Paris climate summit, but not nearly enough to avoid climate catastrophe. So what needs to happen in the final days of frantic negotiations at COP26 to close the ambition gap?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get news curated by experts, not algorithms.<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

About us<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global ambition in this decisive decade<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While most world leaders have headed home, negotiators remain locked in late night talks aimed at securing a \u201cGlasgow Package\u201d, including a final political outcome that will keep the goals of the Paris Agreement in reach. Their discussions are now focused on achieving a political outcome that will accelerate climate action this decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2015 Paris Agreement requires countries to set new and more ambitious targets to reduce emissions every five years, and national pledges aren\u2019t due again until 2025. But if the world is to keep the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5\u2103 in reach, countries will need to increase ambition before then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 100 countries are calling for strengthened ratchet mechanisms to be established in Glasgow, which could require countries like Australia to set a new 2030 target as soon as next year. These proposals have support from major powers, including the United States, but achieving consensus for an ambitious Glasgow package will be a tough ask.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The current 2030 targets (without long-term pledges) put us on track for a 2.4\u00b0C temperature increase by the end of the century. Climate Action Tracker<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The good news is countries have committed to greater climate action than they did in 2015. This provides hope that the Paris Agreement \u2013 which requires stronger commitments over time \u2013 is working.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, projections from the International Energy Agency<\/a> suggested that, if they are fully funded and implemented, Glasgow commitments give the world a 50% chance to limit warming to 1.8\u2103 this century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the bad news? This is a big \u201cif\u201d. As it is, Earth is still on track for catastrophic warming. Emissions are projected to rebound strongly in 2021<\/a> (after an unprecedented drop in 2020 because of the global pandemic).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, alongside the sobering findings overnight that we\u2019re still on track for at least 2.1\u2103 global warming, the UN Environment Programme updated its Emissions Gap Report<\/a>. Taking last week\u2019s pledges into account, it found we\u2019re on track to reduce global emissions by just 8% by 2030, falling well short of the 55% reduction needed to keep global warming to below 1.5\u2103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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COP26: delegates and participants gather around Little Amal, the giant, living artwork of a young Syrian refugee child travelling 8,000km in 2021 in support of refugees. EPA\/ROBERT PERRY<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Limiting warming to 1.5\u2103 this century is key to avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, and is a matter of survival for some Pacific island nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Glasgow, groupings of countries at the frontline of climate change \u2013 including 55 members of the Climate Vulnerable Forum<\/a>, 48 Least Developed Countries<\/a>, and 39 members of the Alliance of Small Island States<\/a> \u2013 have put forward proposals that would require accelerated emissions cuts this decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These proposals have won support from key developed nations, including the United States, as part of the High Ambition Coalition<\/a> \u2013 a grouping of countries that unites developed and developing nations which have traditionally not acted in concert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This coalition was crucial to securing the 2015 Paris Agreement. Last week, it stressed<\/a> the need to halve global emissions by 2030, and called on parties to deliver more ambitious national commitments well before COP27 \u201cin line with a 1.5\u2103 trajectory\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This provides renewed hope Glasgow will deliver a political outcome that will require countries to ratchet up short-term climate action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Developing countries are looking for renewed commitments on climate finance. AAP Image\/Mick Tsikas<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Finding a \u2018landing zone\u2019 for a Glasgow deal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The COP26 presidency has tasked the nations of Grenada and Denmark with finding a landing zone for a Glasgow decision that would \u201ckeep 1.5\u2103 alive\u201d. In October, Denmark released a summary<\/a> of consultations they held with country negotiators to that point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It provided options including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n