{"id":8746,"date":"2021-11-15T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-14T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=8746"},"modified":"2024-03-17T11:33:27","modified_gmt":"2024-03-17T01:33:27","slug":"the-ultimate-guide-to-why-the-cop26-summit-ended-in-failure-and-disappointment-despite-a-few-bright-spots","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-ultimate-guide-to-why-the-cop26-summit-ended-in-failure-and-disappointment-despite-a-few-bright-spots\/","title":{"rendered":"The ultimate guide to why the COP26 summit ended in failure and disappointment (despite a few bright spots)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

ROB HALES<\/a> AND BRENDAN MACKEY<\/a> |<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After two hard-fought weeks of negotiations, the Glasgow climate change summit is, at last, over. All 197 participating countries adopted the so-called Glasgow Climate Pact, despite an 11th hour intervention by India in which the final agreement was watered down from \u201cphasing out\u201d coal to \u201cphasing down\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an emotional final speech, COP26 president Alok Sharma apologised for this last-minute change. His apology goes to the heart of the goals of COP26 in Glasgow: the hope it would deliver outcomes matching the urgent \u201ccode red\u201d action needed to achieve the Paris Agreement target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the summit\u2019s outset, UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres urged countries<\/a> to \u201ckeep the goal of 1.5\u2103 alive\u201d, to accelerate the decarbonisation of the global economy, and to phase out coal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, was COP26 a failure? If we evaluate this using the summits original stated goals<\/a>, the answer is yes, it fell short. Two big ticket items weren\u2019t realised: renewing targets for 2030 that align with limiting warming to 1.5\u2103, and an agreement on accelerating the phase-out of coal. But among the failures, there were important decisions and notable bright spots. So let\u2019s take a look at the summit\u2019s defining issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weak 2030 targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2\u2103 this century, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5\u2103. Catastrophic impacts will be unleashed beyond this point, such as sea level rise and more intense and frequent natural disasters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But new projections<\/a> from Climate Action Tracker show even if all COP26 pledges are met, the planet is on track to warm by 2.1\u2103 \u2013 or 2.4\u2103 if only 2030 targets are met.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the Australian government\u2019s recent climate announcements<\/a>, this nation\u2019s 2030 target remains the same<\/a> as in 2015. If all countries adopted such<\/a> meagre near-term targets, global temperature rise would be on track for up to 3\u2103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technically, the 1.5\u2103 limit is still within reach because, under the Glasgow pact, countries are asked to update their 2030 targets in a year\u2019s time. However, as Sharma said, \u201cthe pulse of 1.5 is weak\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as Australia\u2019s experience shows, domestic politics rather than international pressure is often the force driving climate policy. So there are no guarantees Australia or other nations will deliver greater ambition in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Protest<\/a>
Thousands of activists and protesters march in Glasgow to demand action from world leaders to combat the climate crisis. EPA\/ROBERT PERRY<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Phase down, not out<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s intervention to change the final wording to \u201cphase down\u201d coal rather than \u201cphase out\u201d dampens the urgency to shift away from coal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India is the world\u2019s third-largest<\/a> emitter of greenhouse gases, after China and the United States. The country relies heavily on coal, and coal-powered generation is expected to grow by 4.6%<\/a> each year to 2024. India was the most prominent objector to the \u201cphase out\u201d wording, but also had support from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And US climate envoy John Kerry<\/a> argued that carbon capture and storage technology could be developed further, to trap emissions at the source and store them underground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carbon capture and storage is a controversial proposition for climate action. It is not proven at scale, and we don\u2019t yet know<\/a> if captured emissions stored underground will eventually return to the atmosphere. And around the world, relatively few<\/a> large-scale underground storage locations exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it\u2019s hard to see this expensive technology ever being cost-competitive with cheap<\/a> renewable energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a crucial outcome, COP26 also finalised rules for global carbon trading, known as Article 6 under the Paris Agreement. However under the rules, the fossil fuel industry will be allowed to<\/a> \u201coffset\u201d its carbon emissions and carry on polluting. Combined with the \u201cphasing down\u201d change, this will see fossil fuel emissions continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Alok<\/a>
COP26 president Alok Sharma apologised for the last-minute change in the wording of the pact, from \u2018phasing out coal\u2019 to \u2018phasing down\u2019. AP Photo\/Alastair Grant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It wasn\u2019t all bad<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the shortcomings, COP26 led to a number of important positive outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world has taken an unambiguous turn away from fossil fuel as a source of energy. And the 1.5\u2103 global warming target has taken centre stage, with the recognition that reaching this target will require rapid, deep and sustained emissions reductions of 45% by 2030<\/a>, relative to 2010 levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s more, the pact emphasises the importance to mitigation of nature and ecosystems, including protecting forests and biodiversity. This comes on top of a side deal struck by Australia and 123 other countries promising to end deforestation by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pact also urges countries to fully deliver on an outstanding promise to deliver US$100 billion per year for five years to developing countries vulnerable to climate damage. It also emphasises<\/a> the importance of transparency<\/a> in implementing the pledges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nations are also invited to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2022. In support of this, it was agreed<\/a> to hold a high-level ministerial roundtable meeting each year focused on raising ambition out to 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US and China climate agreement<\/a> is also cause for cautious optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the world not being on track for the 1.5\u2103 goal, momentum is headed in the right direction. And the mere fact that a reduction in coal use was directly addressed in the final text signals change may be possible. But whether it comes in the small window we have left to stop catastrophic climate change remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

AUTHORS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Rob Hales is Director Centre for Sustainable Enterprise and Griffith Asia Institute<\/a> member and Professor Brendan Mackey is Director of the Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ROB HALES AND BRENDAN MACKEY | After two hard-fought weeks of negotiations, the Glasgow climate change summit is, at last, over. All 197 participating countries adopted the so-called Glasgow Climate Pact, despite an 11th hour intervention by India in which the final agreement was watered down from \u201cphasing out\u201d coal to \u201cphasing down\u201d. In anContinue reading “The ultimate guide to why the COP26 summit ended in failure and disappointment (despite a few bright spots)”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":8747,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1170,233,1758,1561,1056,1057],"tags":[842,1532,1627,1632,867,2080],"class_list":["post-8746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-feature-series","category-climate-environment","category-road-to-cop26","category-politics","category-security","tag-climate-change","tag-cop26","tag-glasgow","tag-paris-agreement","tag-professor-brendan-mackay","tag-rob-hales"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"\nThe ultimate guide to why the COP26 summit ended in failure and disappointment (despite a few bright spots) | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ROB HALES AND BRENDAN MACKEY | After two hard-fought weeks of negotiations, the Glasgow climate change summit is, at last, over. 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