{"id":8996,"date":"2022-03-10T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-10T01:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=8996"},"modified":"2023-08-08T16:35:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T06:35:02","slug":"in-multilateral-forums-can-indonesia-lead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/in-multilateral-forums-can-indonesia-lead\/","title":{"rendered":"In multilateral forums, can Indonesia lead?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/pia-dannhauer\/\">PIA DANNHAUER<\/a> AND <a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/greta-nabbs-ke\">GRETA NABBS-KELLER<\/a>  |  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>As Indonesia presides over the G20 this year and assumes the ASEAN chair in 2023, international political and security developments place an ever-growing premium on diplomatic courage and acuity. Is Indonesia up to the task?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rise of great power contest in Europe and the Indo-Pacific means Indonesia\u2019s leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has arguably never been more important. As external states such as China, the US, India, and Japan compete for influence in Southeast Asia through the maritime, infrastructure, digital, defence, and biotech domains, Indonesia has a critical opportunity to shape the region\u2019s destiny, rather than have it determined by others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strategic autonomy and diplomatic agency was, after all, the vision of Indonesia\u2019s first vice president, Mohammad Hatta, who in 1948 enunciated the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/heinonline.org\/HOL\/Page?handle=hein.journals\/fora31&amp;div=45&amp;g_sent=1&amp;casa_token=&amp;collection=journals\">principles<\/a>&nbsp;of Indonesia\u2019s \u201cfree and active\u201d\u2014or&nbsp;<em>bebas-aktif<\/em>\u2014foreign policy doctrine in a world roiled by Cold War politics and rising nationalism.&nbsp;True to Hatta\u2019s vision, Indonesia has maintained its strong commitment to multilateralism and nonalignment. Since ASEAN\u2019s inception in 1967, Indonesian diplomats have strived to build ASEAN\u2019s strategic buffer function against external powers and engender norms of peaceful dispute resolution, dialogue, and consensus. During the Suharto years (1966-1998), for example, Indonesia initiated the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.taylorfrancis.com\/chapters\/mono\/10.4324\/9781315192994-4\/jakarta-informal-meetings-1988%E2%80%931989-nagendra-prasad\">Jakarta Informal Meetings<\/a>&nbsp;in 1988 and 1989, which provided a platform for dialogue among the warring factions in Indo-China conflict. Indonesia also co-chaired the 1990 Paris International Conference on Cambodia, which resulted in a set of accords to end mainland Southeast Asia\u2019s protracted conflicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In more recent decades, the country has been an important architect of Asia\u2019s evolving security and economic architecture. This is evident in Indonesia\u2019s diplomatic contributions to the establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and expanded East Asia Summit, which drew in Australia, India, New Zealand, the US, and Russia to balance China\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Domestic political change brought about by Indonesia\u2019s 1998 transition from authoritarian rule was also the catalyst for shifts in Indonesia\u2019s ASEAN policy. The projection of democratic values provided a new rationale for Indonesia\u2019s engagement with ASEAN, and the organisation became an important platform for the expression of intellectual leadership and liberal aspirations of foreign ministry, academics, and think-tank elites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indonesia\u2019s first directly elected president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, supported Indonesia\u2019s norm entrepreneurship in ASEAN. Under his leadership, Indonesia initiated various institution-building efforts to mainstream democratic values and human rights, evidenced in agreement on an ASEAN&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/asean.org\/about-asean\/asean-charter\/\">Charter<\/a>&nbsp;and adoption of the ASEAN Human Rights Declaration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During his second term, Yudhoyono sought new opportunities to position Indonesia as a regional power with global concerns. Although criticised domestically for his excessive \u201csummitry,\u201d Yudhoyono boosted Indonesia\u2019s global profile, chairing the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2007\/nov\/30\/bali.climatechange\">2007 Bali UN Climate Change Conference<\/a>, acceding to the G20, and increasing the country\u2019s peacekeeping&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/indonesias-push-for-peacekeeping-operations\/\">contributions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By contrast, Indonesia\u2019s global and regional leadership is now diminished. While the country\u2019s diplomatic commitment to ASEAN has always been determined by domestic political consensus, opposition, or apathy to specific issues areas, including lukewarm support for aspects of ASEAN\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/opinion\/ambivalence-in-indonesia-towards-aec\">economic integration<\/a>&nbsp;or&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/indonesia-drags-its-feet-on-asean-haze-treaty-81779\">haze pollution problems<\/a>, Indonesia now seems to participate in ASEAN without investing significant diplomatic capital. The reason lies in a lack of presidential agency \u2013 one of the most powerful determinants of Indonesia\u2019s leadership in ASEAN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Indonesia, like many states, the president is the central decision-maker and most powerful proponent of the country\u2019s foreign policy direction. However, the current president, Joko Widodo\u2014or \u201cJokowi\u201d\u2014shows little interest in promoting new norms, values, and principles that would enhance Southeast Asia\u2019s unity in the face of China\u2019s maritime coercion and internal upheaval in Myanmar. Instead, Jokowi\u2019s more transactional foreign policy approach, which privileges foreign investment and infrastructure development, has drawn his country noticeably closer to China, aided by Beijing\u2019s generous provision of vaccines and biotech cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Closer alignment with China and the president\u2019s economic preoccupations means Indonesia is unlikely to reclaim its leadership mantle in ASEAN before the October 2024 presidential elections. And yet, Indonesia\u2019s foreign policy apparatus is still capable of demonstrating regional agency and initiative. Although Jokowi takes a \u201chands-off\u201d approach to issues that do not directly serve national economic and development interests, he delegates responsibility in many areas to the Foreign Affairs Ministry (Kemlu). This decision-making autonomy provides Kemlu diplomats with some opportunities to pursue Indonesia\u2019s long-term strategic objectives, including Indonesia\u2019s active role in promoting consensus on the ASEAN Outlook of the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/asean.org\/asean2020\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/ASEAN-Outlook-on-the-Indo-Pacific_FINAL_22062019.pdf\">AOIP<\/a>&nbsp;presents a vision of the Indo-Pacific with ASEAN firmly at the centre of the regional multilateral architecture and &nbsp;based on the principles of peaceful co-existence enshrined in the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Widely viewed as a response to more China-exclusive visions of the Indo-Pacific, its formulation was also hastened by the reinvigorated Quadrilateral Security Dialogue comprised of the US, Japan, India, and Australia, which Indonesia viewed as a threat to ASEAN&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/26924335?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents\">centrality and relevance<\/a>&nbsp;in regional affairs. Interestingly, there is still no plan of action on how to translate the Outlook\u2019s objectives into functional cooperation more than two years after its launch. The AOIP has also failed to prescribe concrete measures to mitigate major power tensions or prevent China\u2019s territorial grab in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, although the Myanmar crisis has once again demonstrated ASEAN\u2019s weakness, Indonesia\u2019s foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, has&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/02\/indonesia-leading-asean-push-on-myanmar-coup\/\">spearheaded<\/a>&nbsp;a coordinated regional response to the February 2021 military coup, working to convene an emergency summit meeting of ASEAN leaders in Jakarta in March 2021. Jokowi supports these goals, as evidenced by his&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/setkab.go.id\/en\/indo-pacific-concept-important-for-asean-president-jokowi\/\">endorsement<\/a>&nbsp;of the AOIP concept and recent&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/jakartaglobe.id\/news\/jokowi-cambodian-pm-discuss-myanmar-crisis-over-phone\">deliberation<\/a>&nbsp;with the Cambodian prime minister on the Myanmar crisis. However, it is widely accepted that the president lacks a coherent strategic vision for maintaining ASEAN\u2019s relevance, unity, and autonomy in the face of a major power contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As it stands, Indonesia\u2019s foreign ministry remains the key actor in government committed to a leading role in ASEAN. But without the authoritative voice of the president, it lacks the capacity and clout to translate rhetoric into concrete action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As international political and security developments place an ever-growing premium on diplomatic courage and acuity, ASEAN seems hopelessly ineffectual and divided. In contrast to earlier epochs in Indonesia\u2019s diplomatic history, Indonesia seems unwilling to expend serious diplomatic capital on intramural challenges like the Myanmar crisis or provide a coherent response to Beijing\u2019s maritime revanchism and challenge to international maritime law. Moreover, Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine risks undermining the global economy\u2019s post-pandemic recovery, demanding even more of Indonesia on the global stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Indonesia presides over the G20 this year and assumes the ASEAN chair in 2023, it will be interesting to see if \u201cchairing\u201d translates into \u201cleading\u201d for Southeast Asia\u2019s largest state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"author label\">AUTHORS<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/pia-dannhauer\/\">Pia Dannhauer<\/a>&nbsp;is a PhD candidate at Griffith Asia Institute researching Indonesia\u2019s foreign policy behaviour in ASEAN.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/aiia-authors\/dr-greta-nabbs-keller\/\">Dr Greta Nabbs-Keller<\/a>&nbsp;is Senior Specialist Defence Research at The University of Queensland and an Adjunct Research Fellow at Griffith Asia Institute.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article first appeared at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalaffairs.org.au\/australianoutlook\/can-indonesia-lead\/\">Australian Outlook<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PIA DANNHAUER AND GRETA NABBS-KELLER | As Indonesia presides over the G20 this year and assumes the ASEAN chair in 2023, international political and security developments place an ever-growing premium on diplomatic courage and acuity. Is Indonesia up to the task? The rise of great power contest in Europe and the Indo-Pacific means Indonesia\u2019s leadership<a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/in-multilateral-forums-can-indonesia-lead\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"sr-only\">&#8220;In multilateral forums, can Indonesia lead?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":8998,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1170,233,247,1056,524],"tags":[883,1507,344,1665,1666,1664],"class_list":["post-8996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-feature-series","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","category-politics","category-public-diplomacy","tag-g20","tag-greta-nabbs-keller","tag-indonesia","tag-joko-widodo","tag-jokowi","tag-pia-dannhauer"],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Jill Moriarty","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>In multilateral forums, can Indonesia lead? 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