{"id":9022,"date":"2022-03-24T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-23T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=9022"},"modified":"2023-08-06T14:12:16","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T04:12:16","slug":"scenarios-for-the-war-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/scenarios-for-the-war-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenarios for the war in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s war has stalled. There are small advances,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">but at high cost<\/a>. Russian forces started the war with&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/graphics.reuters.com\/UKRAINE-CRISIS\/zdpxokdxzvx\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">simultaneous attacks<\/a>&nbsp;across Ukraine. They have not been able to do such advances for almost two weeks now. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ukrainian armed forces are taking advantage of this and inflicting&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-60785679\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a grinding rate of attrition<\/a>. Worse, the Russian force\u2019s lines of resupply are long, under attack and unable to be adequately protected. There is already&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en\/article\/5dg43z\/ukraine-russia-insurgency-plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">an insurgency underway<\/a>&nbsp;in areas that Russia claims it has captured; really, Russia only \u201cholds\u201d some major roads connecting Russia to its forward deployed forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next major event will be the capture of Mariupol, where&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/global-health\/terror-and-security\/destruction-enormous-thousands-flee-mariupol-350000-remain-hidden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">350,000 people are reported to&nbsp;remain<\/a>. This capture is a model of how Russia will now try to achieve victory: the extensive use of missiles, rockets, cannons and artillery to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-60579439\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bombard the civilian areas<\/a>&nbsp;in an attempt to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/world\/europe\/russia-tells-ukrainians-to-leave-cities-as-it-prepares-all-out-assault-20220302-p5a0u3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">force a surrender<\/a>&nbsp;without having to mount&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20220309-urban-warfare-nightmare-looms-if-russia-enters-ukraine-cities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a major urban assault<\/a>. This is against the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icrc.org\/en\/doc\/assets\/files\/other\/law1_final.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">laws of armed conflict<\/a>&nbsp;as Russian military commanders&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icrc.org\/en\/doc\/assets\/files\/other\/irrc_850_tuzmukhamedov.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">are well aware<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/scenarios-war-ukraine\">Scenarios for the war in Ukraine<\/a>&#8221; article published at The Interpreter, written by Griffith Asia Insitute Visiting Fellow, <strong>Dr Peter Layton<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Russia\u2019s war has stalled. There are small advances,&nbsp;but at high cost. Russian forces started the war with&nbsp;simultaneous attacks&nbsp;across Ukraine. They have not been able to do such advances for almost two weeks now. &nbsp; The Ukrainian armed forces are taking advantage of this and inflicting&nbsp;a grinding rate of attrition. Worse, the Russian force\u2019s<a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/scenarios-for-the-war-in-ukraine\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"sr-only\">&#8220;Scenarios for the war in Ukraine&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":9023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1170],"tags":[1082,609,799,621],"class_list":["post-9022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","tag-peter-layton","tag-russia","tag-security","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the war in Ukraine | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Russia\u2019s war has stalled. 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