{"id":9022,"date":"2022-03-24T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-23T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=9022"},"modified":"2023-08-06T14:12:16","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T04:12:16","slug":"scenarios-for-the-war-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/scenarios-for-the-war-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenarios for the war in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia\u2019s war has stalled. There are small advances,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">but at high cost<\/a>. Russian forces started the war with&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/graphics.reuters.com\/UKRAINE-CRISIS\/zdpxokdxzvx\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">simultaneous attacks<\/a>&nbsp;across Ukraine. They have not been able to do such advances for almost two weeks now. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Ukrainian armed forces are taking advantage of this and inflicting&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-60785679\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a grinding rate of attrition<\/a>. Worse, the Russian force\u2019s lines of resupply are long, under attack and unable to be adequately protected. There is already&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en\/article\/5dg43z\/ukraine-russia-insurgency-plan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">an insurgency underway<\/a>&nbsp;in areas that Russia claims it has captured; really, Russia only \u201cholds\u201d some major roads connecting Russia to its forward deployed forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next major event will be the capture of Mariupol, where&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/global-health\/terror-and-security\/destruction-enormous-thousands-flee-mariupol-350000-remain-hidden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">350,000 people are reported to&nbsp;remain<\/a>. This capture is a model of how Russia will now try to achieve victory: the extensive use of missiles, rockets, cannons and artillery to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-60579439\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bombard the civilian areas<\/a>&nbsp;in an attempt to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/world\/europe\/russia-tells-ukrainians-to-leave-cities-as-it-prepares-all-out-assault-20220302-p5a0u3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">force a surrender<\/a>&nbsp;without having to mount&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20220309-urban-warfare-nightmare-looms-if-russia-enters-ukraine-cities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a major urban assault<\/a>. This is against the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icrc.org\/en\/doc\/assets\/files\/other\/law1_final.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">laws of armed conflict<\/a>&nbsp;as Russian military commanders&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icrc.org\/en\/doc\/assets\/files\/other\/irrc_850_tuzmukhamedov.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">are well aware<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/scenarios-war-ukraine\">Scenarios for the war in Ukraine<\/a>&#8221; article published at The Interpreter, written by Griffith Asia Insitute Visiting Fellow, <strong>Dr Peter Layton<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Russia\u2019s war has stalled. There are small advances,&nbsp;but at high cost. Russian forces started the war with&nbsp;simultaneous attacks&nbsp;across Ukraine. They have not been able to do such advances for almost two weeks now. &nbsp; The Ukrainian armed forces are taking advantage of this and inflicting&nbsp;a grinding rate of attrition. Worse, the Russian force\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":9023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1170],"tags":[1082,609,799,621],"class_list":["post-9022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","tag-peter-layton","tag-russia","tag-security","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the war in Ukraine | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| Russia\u2019s war has stalled. 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As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. In general,\u00a0grey-zone activities\u00a0involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4913,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-tenth-man-wars-changing-nature-in-an-ai-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":9022,"position":1},"title":"\u201cThe tenth man\u201d \u2014 War\u2019s changing nature in an AI world","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a debate underway about the\u00a0nature of war. Some say it\u2019s immutable, others say hogwash; ironically both sides quote Clausewitz for support. Interestingly,\u00a0Secretary of Defense Mattis, once an \u2018immutable\u2019 defender, has now\u00a0declared\u00a0he\u2019s not sure anymore, given recent\u00a0Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0\u00a0developments. At the core of the immutable case is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9969,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/as-russia-woos-nations-to-support-its-war-in-ukraine-will-fault-lines-deepen-around-the-globe\/","url_meta":{"origin":9022,"position":2},"title":"As Russia woos nations to support its war in Ukraine, will fault lines deepen around the\u00a0globe?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"13 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"MATTHEW SUSSEX | For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the\u00a0mistaken belief\u00a0that he could conquer much of Ukraine in a few days highlighted the depth of his hubris. Since then, his decision to continue the onslaught has revealed the ongoing practical costs to the Russian military. Now, Moscow\u2019s attempt to meet those\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the Chairman of the State Council of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Kim Jong-un, 25 April 2019.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9989,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/duelling-battle-networks-the-new-equilibrium\/","url_meta":{"origin":9022,"position":3},"title":"Duelling battle networks: The new equilibrium","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"21 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON | With digital technology omnipresent, future major wars will most likely pivot around duelling battle networks. These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9937,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wagner-chief-prigozhin-reportedly-killed-but-has-putin-cooked-his-own-goose\/","url_meta":{"origin":9022,"position":4},"title":"Wagner chief Prigozhin reportedly killed, but has Putin cooked his own\u00a0goose?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"29 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"MATTHEW SUSSEX\u00a0| Perhaps the most unexpected thing about the plane crash that reportedly\u00a0killed\u00a0Yevgeny Prigozhin, the bombastic head of Russia\u2019s infamous Wagner group, is that it happened a full two months after he brought Russia to what President Vladimir Putin warned at the time was the brink of\u00a0civil war. Prigozhin certainly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5662,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/prototype-warfare-in-the-fourth-industrial-age\/","url_meta":{"origin":9022,"position":5},"title":"Prototype warfare in the fourth industrial age","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| A new industrial process is rapidly emerging.\u00a0 This fourth industrial revolution (4IR) based on hyper-connectivity brings with it both continual \u2013 indeed relentless \u2013 innovation and the possibility of practical large-scale prototype warfare. The interweaving of the second and third industrial revolutions is creating the fourth. 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