{"id":9073,"date":"2022-04-21T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-20T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=9073"},"modified":"2023-08-06T14:08:41","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T04:08:41","slug":"in-putins-war-everybody-loses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/in-putins-war-everybody-loses\/","title":{"rendered":"In Putin\u2019s war, everybody loses"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/peter-layton\/\">PETER LAYTON<\/a>\u00a0|   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The war in Ukraine is entering its ninth week. Looking back, in the first three weeks, Russia tried to&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realcleardefense.com\/articles\/2022\/03\/14\/general_valery_gerasimovs_great_ukrainian_disaster_821552.html?mc_cid=0fa4884903\" target=\"_blank\">quickly impose<\/a>&nbsp;regime change. This failed, leading to the Russian army adopting a wasteland strategy. This aimed to destroy Ukraine economically, devastate cities and towns, and create large refugee flows. Some 12 million people \u2013 about a&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/reliefweb.int\/report\/ukraine\/vice-prime-minister-and-minister-reintegration-temporarily-occupied-territories\" target=\"_blank\">quarter<\/a>&nbsp;of Ukraine\u2019s population \u2013 are now refugees, internally or externally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.afr.com\/world\/europe\/russians-begin-eastern-ukraine-offensive-zelensky-20220419-p5aeay\" target=\"_blank\">has now begun<\/a>&nbsp;its expected air and land offensive to gain additional territory in the Donbass region, in particular to&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-60506682\" target=\"_blank\">capture the remainder<\/a>&nbsp;of the Luhansk Oblast (province).&nbsp; This offensive will play to Russian strengths in having large numbers of tanks and soldiers, and being connected to a better military supply network than Belarus proved to be. However, Russia will&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-ukraine-kyiv-syria-middle-east-europe-3f19dcf04272865539cf3af9816c29f9\" target=\"_blank\">again face troubles<\/a>&nbsp;with unmotivated and badly trained soldiers, poor logistics, poor battlefield intelligence, and having much older equipment unsuited to modern smart-weapons wars.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The offensive is likely to&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-17\" target=\"_blank\">have mixed success<\/a>&nbsp;in capturing new territory, but crucially will stop Ukraine retaking the land it has lost and inflict considerable further damage to Ukraine\u2019s armed forces. Putin will be&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/cyprus-mail.com\/2022\/04\/17\/ukraine-the-second-russian-offensive\/\" target=\"_blank\">able to claim<\/a>&nbsp;the gains have been worth the great cost. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Please click here to read the full &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/putin-s-war-everybody-loses\">In Putin\u2019s war, everybody loses<\/a>&#8221; article published at The Interpreter, written by Griffith Asia Insitute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PETER LAYTON\u00a0| The war in Ukraine is entering its ninth week. Looking back, in the first three weeks, Russia tried to&nbsp;quickly impose&nbsp;regime change. This failed, leading to the Russian army adopting a wasteland strategy. This aimed to destroy Ukraine economically, devastate cities and towns, and create large refugee flows. Some 12 million people \u2013 about [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":9074,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1057],"tags":[1082,609,621],"class_list":["post-9073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-security","tag-peter-layton","tag-russia","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>In Putin\u2019s war, everybody loses | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| The war in Ukraine is entering its ninth week. 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In general,\u00a0grey-zone activities\u00a0involve purposefully pursuing political objectives through carefully designed operations; moving cautiously\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/China-grey-zone2.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9969,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/as-russia-woos-nations-to-support-its-war-in-ukraine-will-fault-lines-deepen-around-the-globe\/","url_meta":{"origin":9073,"position":1},"title":"As Russia woos nations to support its war in Ukraine, will fault lines deepen around the\u00a0globe?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"13 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"MATTHEW SUSSEX | For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the\u00a0mistaken belief\u00a0that he could conquer much of Ukraine in a few days highlighted the depth of his hubris. Since then, his decision to continue the onslaught has revealed the ongoing practical costs to the Russian military. Now, Moscow\u2019s attempt to meet those\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the Chairman of the State Council of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Kim Jong-un, 25 April 2019.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4913,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/the-tenth-man-wars-changing-nature-in-an-ai-world\/","url_meta":{"origin":9073,"position":2},"title":"\u201cThe tenth man\u201d \u2014 War\u2019s changing nature in an AI world","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"9 October 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| There\u2019s a debate underway about the\u00a0nature of war. Some say it\u2019s immutable, others say hogwash; ironically both sides quote Clausewitz for support. Interestingly,\u00a0Secretary of Defense Mattis, once an \u2018immutable\u2019 defender, has now\u00a0declared\u00a0he\u2019s not sure anymore, given recent\u00a0Artificial intelligence (AI)\u00a0\u00a0developments. At the core of the immutable case is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/10\/10th-man-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9989,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/duelling-battle-networks-the-new-equilibrium\/","url_meta":{"origin":9073,"position":3},"title":"Duelling battle networks: The new equilibrium","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"21 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON | With digital technology omnipresent, future major wars will most likely pivot around duelling battle networks. These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9937,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wagner-chief-prigozhin-reportedly-killed-but-has-putin-cooked-his-own-goose\/","url_meta":{"origin":9073,"position":4},"title":"Wagner chief Prigozhin reportedly killed, but has Putin cooked his own\u00a0goose?","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"29 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"MATTHEW SUSSEX\u00a0| Perhaps the most unexpected thing about the plane crash that reportedly\u00a0killed\u00a0Yevgeny Prigozhin, the bombastic head of Russia\u2019s infamous Wagner group, is that it happened a full two months after he brought Russia to what President Vladimir Putin warned at the time was the brink of\u00a0civil war. Prigozhin certainly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commentary","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/commentary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/putin-prigozhin.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5662,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/prototype-warfare-in-the-fourth-industrial-age\/","url_meta":{"origin":9073,"position":5},"title":"Prototype warfare in the fourth industrial age","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"4 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| A new industrial process is rapidly emerging.\u00a0 This fourth industrial revolution (4IR) based on hyper-connectivity brings with it both continual \u2013 indeed relentless \u2013 innovation and the possibility of practical large-scale prototype warfare. The interweaving of the second and third industrial revolutions is creating the fourth. This new\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Feature series&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Feature series","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/publication\/feature-series\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/04\/Industry-4.0-900x500.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"featured_image_thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/Ukraine-destruction.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9073"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9073\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9074"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}