{"id":9224,"date":"2022-07-01T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-30T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=9224"},"modified":"2023-08-06T20:54:41","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T10:54:41","slug":"myanmars-civil-war-and-the-myth-of-military-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/myanmars-civil-war-and-the-myth-of-military-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"Myanmar\u2019s civil war and the myth of military victory"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/tag\/andrew-selth\/\">ANDREW SELTH<\/a>\u00a0 |\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the past few months, there has been a significant shift in the tone of the expert commentary on Myanmar\u2019s civil war. Experienced observers are starting to hedge their bets on the eventual outcome of the conflict. A few are even allowing for the possibility of a military victory by the opposition movement, something once dismissed as impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following the coup on 1 February 2021, most professional Myanmar-watchers warned that, despite the unprecedented support shown for the pro-democracy movement, Myanmar\u2019s armed forces (or Tatmadaw)&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2021\/02\/why-myanmars-military-will-win-in-the-end\" target=\"_blank\">should not be under-estimated<\/a>. They had weaknesses, but were powerful, ruthless and determined to&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2021\/04\/why-the-tatmadaw-wont-crack-in-myanmar\" target=\"_blank\">assert their control<\/a>&nbsp;over the country, whatever the cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The nation-wide civil disobedience campaign weakened the regime but could not bring it down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Please click here to read the full <a href=\"https:\/\/asialink.unimelb.edu.au\/insights\/myanmars-civil-war-and-the-myth-of-military-victory\">&#8220;Myanmar\u2019s civil war and the myth of military victory&#8221;<\/a> article published at AsiaLink, written by Griffith Asia Institute Adjunct Professor Andrew Selth.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ANDREW SELTH\u00a0 |\u00a0\u00a0 Over the past few months, there has been a significant shift in the tone of the expert commentary on Myanmar\u2019s civil war. Experienced observers are starting to hedge their bets on the eventual outcome of the conflict. A few are even allowing for the possibility of a military victory by the opposition [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":9226,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1170,247,1057],"tags":[1672,1698,369,959],"class_list":["post-9224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","category-security","tag-andrew-selth","tag-junta","tag-myanmar","tag-tatmadaw"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Myanmar\u2019s civil war and the myth of military victory | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ANDREW SELTH\u00a0 |\u00a0\u00a0 Over the past few months, there has been a significant shift in the tone of the expert commentary on Myanmar\u2019s civil war. Experienced\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/myanmars-civil-war-and-the-myth-of-military-victory\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Myanmar\u2019s civil war and the myth of military victory | Griffith Asia Insights\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ANDREW SELTH\u00a0 |\u00a0\u00a0 Over the past few months, there has been a significant shift in the tone of the expert commentary on Myanmar\u2019s civil war. 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No matter how conscientious the compiler there will always be gaps and scope for additions, particularly to select bibliographies. 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These complicated systems represent unique target sets best attacked through using system of system thinking and emerging ideas of cognitive warfare. Particularly given China\u2019s \u201csystems confrontation\u201d focus, attacking battle networks is an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Region | China and Northeast Asia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Region | China and Northeast Asia","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/category\/china-and-north-east-asia\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dark red technological map of the world with luminous dots, global information network on a digital screen","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Defence-technology-network.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8667,"url":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/countering-chinas-grey-zone-strategy\/","url_meta":{"origin":9224,"position":4},"title":"Countering China\u2019s grey zone strategy","author":"Griffith Asia Institute","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"PETER LAYTON\u00a0| China\u2019s grey zone activities\u00a0grind remorseless on\u00a0but in so doing are creating an opposing pushback. As is customary, the\u00a0paradoxical nature\u00a0of war applies in that those impacted by a damaging strategy will over time devise optimised counter-moves. 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