{"id":9931,"date":"2023-08-23T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-22T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/?p=9931"},"modified":"2023-08-22T10:55:26","modified_gmt":"2023-08-22T00:55:26","slug":"southeast-asia-snapshot-57","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/testblogs.griffith.edu.au\/asiainsights\/southeast-asia-snapshot-57\/","title":{"rendered":"Southeast Asia snapshot #57"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

SOVINDA PO<\/a> | <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The political situation in Myanmar as of 16 August 2023<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Recently, the military junta has extended the country\u2019s state of emergency, delayed another election, and has announced the partial pardon of Aung San Suu Kyi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the National Defense and Security Council meeting on 31 July 2023, the junta extended the state of emergency<\/a> it imposed when the army seized power from an elected government in February 2021. The extension has been set for another six months<\/a> starting from 1 July 2023. According to the junta, the extension is based on the need to prepare for the election. The state of emergency allows the military to assume all government functions<\/a>, including giving the head of the ruling military council, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, legislative, judicial, and executive powers. In addition, Myanmar\u2019s military has also postponed the election<\/a> which was promised to be conducted in August this year. The junta claimed that with the state of emergency in place if the election were to be organised, it would cause violence. The military administration believes that the ongoing turmoil would impede a truly free and fair election and more time is needed<\/a> to prepare for a smooth election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the junta has also announced a partial pardon<\/a> for the ousted democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, reducing her 33\u2013year sentence by six years. Aung San Suu Kyi has been convicted of 19 offenses, including corruption, in the aftermath of the coup. However, as the junta announced that five cases have been pardoned<\/a>, including breaching a natural disaster mitigation law<\/a> while campaigning during COVID, 14 more offenses will remain\u2014meaning she still must serve a total of 27 years<\/a> out of the 33 years she originally was imprisoned for. Besides Suu Kyi, former president Win Myint has been also granted a pardon<\/a> in which his jail term will be reduced by four years but it is likely that both Suu Kyi and Myint would remain under house arrest and would not be free from detention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The junta\u2019s extension of the state emergency and the election postponement can imply that the army does not exercise enough control<\/a> to organise the polls and has failed to subdue widespread opposition to the military rule, including increasingly challenging armed resistance<\/a> as well as nonviolent protests and civil disobedience. Nay Phone Latt, a spokesperson for the National Unity Government said<\/a> that the extension of the state of emergency is because \u201cthe generals have a lust for power and don\u2019t want to lose it\u201d while the US State Department said extending the state of emergency<\/a> would plunge the country \u201cdeeper into violence and instability\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regards to the partial pardon of Suu Kyi, some analysts described<\/a> it as a \u201ccosmetic move\u201d and \u201cthis is a signal to the international community\u2014without doing anything substantive\u201d while her son believed that it is absolutely nothing and<\/a> \u201cthe whole world knows the military have played these games with propaganda, trying to make themselves look better on occasion\u201d. The US said<\/a> it \u201chas repeatedly called on the military to immediately release Aung San Suu Kyi\u201d and \u201curge the junta to end the violence, allow unhindered humanitarian access and engage with all stakeholders on Myanmar\u2019s future\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The junta created many excuses to remain in power while appealing to the international community with Suu Kyi\u2019s partial pardons. But realistically, both Aung San Suu Kyi and Myanmar\u2019s control are still in the junta\u2019s grip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States and China\u2019s current engagement with Southeast Asia<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

As the United States and China are locked in an increasingly<\/a> intense rivalry, the Southeast Asian region has been seeing different degrees of engagement from the US and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

United States President Joe Biden announced that he would be traveling<\/a> to Vietnam \u201cshortly\u201d partly because Vietnam wanted to elevate<\/a> its relationship with the United States and become a major partner of the US. In March, both countries\u2019 leaders had a phone call<\/a> to discuss the expansion of the relationship and how to address regional challenges. Hence it has been speculated<\/a> that both the US and Vietnam will announce a major upgrade in their diplomatic relations before the end of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With no further information on the travel, John Kirby, the White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communication, said the relationship between Hanoi and Washington is \u201cimproving and it is improving<\/a> across lots of sectors\u2014in the security world, certainly diplomatically, and even economically\u201d. Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said<\/a> \u201cThis is an auspicious time to elevate our existing partnership\u201d and with 10 years of comprehensive partnership, it is \u201ca good moment to go even further\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Singapore, Malaysia, and Cambodia from 10\u201313 August 2023, to bolster strategic communication<\/a> with the three Southeast Asian countries. The visit started in Singapore, on 11 August, where Wang Yi met with Prime Minister (PM) Lee Hsien Loong, Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, and Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan to deepen ties<\/a>. Singapore has expressed in-principle<\/a> support for China to join the CPTPP and welcomed China\u2019s application to the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) so as to facilitate digital trade and create a framework for the digital economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the Chinese Foreign Minister visited Malaysia, from 11\u201312 August<\/a>, and met with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Foreign Minister Zambry Abdul Kadir, Transport Minister Loke Siew Fook, and caretaker Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow. Wang Yi and PM Anwar discussed various aspects<\/a> of cooperation and collaboration with a focus on investments, education, and regional issues. The visit also highlighted the good achievement<\/a> in the Belt and Road projects in Malaysia such as the East Coast Rail Link and the \u201cTwo Countries, Twin Parks\u201d projects. China and Malaysia have pledged to share market opportunities and expand cooperation fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wang Yi\u2019s Southeast Asia trip concluded in Cambodia, on 13 August, where he met<\/a> with PM Hun Sen, designated PM Hun Manet, and other top officials. Wang Yi reaffirmed China\u2019s commitment<\/a> to Cambodia after PM Hun Sen handed over the job to his son. China has pledged to promote cooperation<\/a> between the two countries while Cambodia has also pledged to uphold the unchanged position towards the One-China policy. Wang also reaffirmed Beijing\u2019s \u201cunwavering commitment<\/a>\u201d to respecting Cambodian sovereignty and conveyed Beijing\u2019s support for the Kingdom. Many believed the Chinese Foreign Minister\u2019s visit to the three ASEAN states is to showcase China\u2019s deeper economic integration in the region that is not undermined by the United States.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that Southeast Asia\u2019s neutrality, under the ASEAN motto<\/a>, provides a space for the US and China to compete in which Beijing appears to have an upper hand, compared to the US.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

AUTHOR<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sovinda<\/strong> Po<\/strong> is a Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SOVINDA PO | The political situation in Myanmar as of 16 August 2023 Recently, the military junta has extended the country\u2019s state of emergency, delayed another election, and has announced the partial pardon of Aung San Suu Kyi. In the National Defense and Security Council meeting on 31 July 2023, the junta extended the stateContinue reading “Southeast Asia snapshot #57”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":9781,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[247,1413,1056,1057],"tags":[280,284,369,1079],"class_list":["post-9931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-indonesia-and-southeast-asia","category-south-east-asia-snapshot","category-politics","category-security","tag-cambodia","tag-china","tag-myanmar","tag-sovinda-po"],"acf":[],"modified_by":null,"yoast_head":"\nSoutheast Asia snapshot #57 | Griffith Asia Insights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"SOVINDA PO | The political 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